Numerical Simulation of the 9-10 June 1972 Black Hills Storm Using CSU RAMS

Strong easterly flow of low-level moist air over the eastern slopes of the Black Hills on 9-10 June 1972 generated a storm system that produced a flash flood, devastating the area. Based on observations from this storm event, and also from the similar Big Thompson 1976 storm event, conceptual models have been developed to explain the unusually high precipitation efficiency. In this study, the Black Hills storm is simulated using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. Simulations with homogeneous and inhomogeneous initializations and different grid structures are presented. The conceptual models of storm structure proposed by previous studies are examined in light of the present simulations. Both homogeneous and inhomogeneous initialization results capture the intense nature of the storm, but the inhomogeneous simulation produced a precipitation pattern closer to the observed pattern. The simulations point to stationary tilted updrafts, with precipitation falling out to the rear as the preferred storm structure. Experiments with different grid structures point to the importance of removing the lateral boundaries far from the region of activity. Overall, simulation performance in capturing the observed behavior of the storm system was enhanced by use of inhomogeneous initialization

Adaptive constraints for feature tracking

In this paper extensions to an existing tracking algorithm are described. These extensions implement adaptive tracking constraints in the form of regional upper-bound displacements and an adaptive track smoothness constraint. Together, these constraints make the tracking algorithm more flexible than the original algorithm (which used fixed tracking parameters) and provide greater confidence in the tracking results. The result of applying the new algorithm to high-resolution ECMWF reanalysis data is shown as an example of its effectiveness

On the role of thermal expansion and compression in large-scale atmospheric energy and mass transports

There are currently two views of how atmospheric total energy transport is accomplished. The traditional view considers total energy as a quantity that is transported in an advective-like manner by the wind. The other considers that thermal expansion and the resultant compression of the surrounding air causes a transport of total energy in a wave-like manner at the speed of sound. This latter view emerged as the result of detailed analysis of fully compressible mesoscale model simulations that demonstrated considerable transfer of internal and gravitational potential energy at the speed of sound by Lamb waves. In this study, results are presented of idealized experiments with a fully compressible model designed to examine the large-scale transfers of total energy and mass when local heat sources are prescribed. For simplicity a Cartesian grid was used, there was a horizontally homogeneous and motionless initial state, and the simulations did not include moisture.Three main experimental designs were employed. The first has a convective-storm-scale heat source and does not include the Coriolis force. The second experiment has a continent-scale heat source prescribed near the surface to represent surface heating and includes a constant Coriolis parameter. The third experiment has a cloud-cluster-scale heat source prescribed at the equator and includes a latitude-dependent Coriolis parameter. Results show considerable amounts of meridional total energy and mass transfer at the speed of sound. This suggests that the current theory of large-scale total energy transport is incomplete. It is noteworthy that comparison of simulations with and without thermally generated compression waves show that for a very large-scale heat source there are fairly small but nevertheless significant differences of the wind field.These results raise important questions related to the mass constraints when calculating meridional energy transports, the use of semi-implicit time differencing in large-scale global models, and the use of the term heat transfer for total energy transfer.</p

A numerical modelling investigation of the role of diabatic heating and cooling in the development of a mid-level vortex prior to tropical cyclogenesis – Part 1: The response to stratiform components of diabatic forcing

Mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortices have been often observed to precede tropical cyclogenesis. Moreover, recent cloud-resolving numerical modelling studies that are initialized with a weak cyclonic mid-tropospheric vortex sometimes show a considerable intensification of the mid-level circulation prior to the development of the strong cyclonic surface winds that characterize tropical cyclogenesis. The objective of this two-part study is to determine the processes that lead to the development of a prominent mid-level vortex during a simulation of the transformation of a tropical disturbance into a tropical depression, in particular the role of diabatic heating and cooling. For simplicity simulations are initialized from a quiescent environment. In this first part, results of the numerical simulation are described and the response to stratiform components of the diabatic forcing is investigated. In the second part, the contribution of diabatic heating in convective cells to the development of the mid-level vortex is examined.Results show that after a period of intense convective activity, merging of anvils from numerous cells creates an expansive stratiform ice region in the upper troposphere, and at its base a mid-level inflow starts to develop. Subsequently conservation of angular momentum leads to strengthening of the mid-level circulation. A 12&thinsp;h period of mid-level vortex intensification is examined during which the mid-level tangential winds become stronger than those at the surface. The main method employed to determine the role of diabatic forcing in causing the mid-level inflow is to diagnose it from the full physics simulation and then impose it in a simulation with hydrometeors removed and the microphysics scheme turned off. Removal of hydrometeors is achieved primarily through artificially increasing their fall speeds 3&thinsp;h prior to the 12&thinsp;h period. This results in a state that is in approximate gradient wind balance, with only a weak secondary circulation. Then, estimates of various components of the diabatic forcing are imposed as source terms in the thermodynamic equation in order to examine the circulations that they independently induce. Sublimation cooling at the base of the stratiform ice region is shown to be the main factor responsible for causing the strong mid-level vortex to develop, with smaller contributions from stratiform heating aloft and low-level melting and evaporation. This contrasts with the findings of previous studies of mid-latitude vortices that indicate sublimation plays a relatively minor role. An unanticipated result is that the central cool region that develops near the melting level is to a large degree due to compensating adiabatic ascent in response to descent driven by diabatic cooling adjacent to the central region, rather than in situ diabatic cooling. The mid-level inflow estimated from stratiform processes is notably weaker than for the full physics simulation, suggesting a moderate contribution from diabatic forcing in convective cells.</p

Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region

Extreme-temperature events have a great impact on human society. Thus, knowledge of summer temperatures can be very useful both for the general public and for organizations whose workers operate in the open. An accurate forecasting of summer maximum and minimum temperatures could help to predict heatwave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The objective of this work is to evaluate the skill of the regional atmospheric and modelling system (RAMS) model in determining daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Mediterráneo Foundation. This operational system is run twice a day, and both runs have a 3-day forecast range. To carry out the verification of the model in this work, the information generated by the system has been broken into individual simulation days for a specific daily run of the model. Moreover, we have analysed the summer forecast period from 1 June to 31 August for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. The results indicate good agreement between observed and simulated maximum temperatures, with RMSE in general near 2 °C both for coastal and inland stations. For this parameter, the model shows a negative bias around −1.5 °C in the coast, while the opposite trend is observed inland. In addition, RAMS also shows good results in forecasting minimum temperatures for coastal locations, with bias lower than 1 °C and RMSE below 2 °C. However, the model presents some difficulties for this parameter inland, where bias higher than 3 °C and RMSE of about 4 °C have been found. Besides, there is little difference in both temperatures forecasted within the two daily RAMS cycles and that RAMS is very stable in maintaining the forecast performance at least for three forecast days

Life Cycle Management of Infrastructures

By definition, life cycle management (LCM) is a framework “of concepts, techniques, and procedures to address environmental, economic, technological, and social aspects of products and organizations in order to achieve continuous ‘sustainable’ improvement from a life cycle perspective” (Hunkeler et al.\ua02001). Thus, LCM theoretically integrates all sustainability dimensions, and strives to provide a holistic perspective. It also assists in the efficient and effective use of constrained natural and financial resources to reduce negative impacts on society (Sonnemann and Leeuw\ua02006; Adibi et al.\ua02015). The LCM of infrastructures is the adaptation of product life cycle management (PLM) as techniques to the design, construction, and management of infrastructures. Infrastructure life cycle management requires accurate and extensive information that might be generated through different kinds of intelligent and connected information workflows, such as building information modeling (BIM)