Density-dependent cladogenesis in birds.

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Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate–biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These ‘space-for-time substitutions’ (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable – population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate–biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate–biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields

The effects of woodland habitat and biogeography on blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus territory occupancy and productivity along a 220 km transect

© 2018 The Authors The nesting phenology and productivity of hole-nesting woodland passerines, such as tit species (Paridae), has been the subject of many studies and played a central role in advancing our understanding of the causes and consequences of trophic mismatch. However, as most studies have been conducted in mature, oak-rich (Quercus sp.) woodlands, it is unknown whether insights from such studies generalise to other habitats used by woodland generalist species. Here we applied spatial mixed models to data collected over three years (2014–2016) from 238 nestboxes across 40 sites – that vary in woodland habitat and elevation – along a 220 km transect in Scotland. We evaluate the importance of habitat, biogeography and food availability as predictors of mesoscale among-site variation in blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus nestbox occupancy and two components of productivity (clutch size and fledging success). We found that habitat was not a significant predictor of occupancy or clutch size but that occupancy exhibited pronounced biogeographic trends, declining with increasing latitude and elevation. However, fledging success, defined as the proportion of a clutch that fledged, was positively correlated with site level availability of birch, oak and sycamore, and tree diversity. The lack of correspondence between the effects of habitat on fledging success versus occupancy and clutch size may indicate that blue tits do not accurately predict the future quality of their breeding sites when selecting territories and laying clutches. We found little evidence of spatial autocorrelation in occupancy or clutch size, whereas spatial autocorrelation in fledging success extends over multiple sites, albeit non-significantly. Taken together, our findings suggest that the relationship between breeding decisions and breeding outcomes varies among habitats, and we urge caution when extrapolating inferences from one habitat to others

The correlates of intraspecific variation in nest height and nest building duration in the Eurasian blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus

Birds build nests primarily as a receptacle to lay their eggs in, but they can also provide secondary benefits including structural support, camouflage and adjustment of the microclimate surrounding the eggs and offspring. The factors underlying intraspecific variation in nest characteristics are poorly understood. In this study, we aim to identify the environmental factors that predict nest height variation and the duration of nest building in blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus, evaluating latitude, elevation, temperature and the timing of egg-laying as predictors of nest height, while also taking into account female and male parental identity. Using 713 nest height observations collected over a period of five years along a 220 km transect in Scotland, we found that if the annual mean timing of egg-laying was earlier, nests were taller. However, there was no correlation between nest height and elevation, latitude, the minimum temperature in the 14 days pre-egg-laying or the phenology of birds within a year. Female parental identity accounted for a large amount of variation in nest height, suggesting that individual behaviour has an influence on nest structure. We also found that nest building duration was shorter when egg laying occurred earlier in the year, and that across all observations taller nests took longer to build. Overall, our results show that blue tits are able to alter their nest characteristics based on environmental gradients like latitude (in the case of building duration) and the annual mean phenological variation of egg laying, and that birds build relatively taller nests faster

Darwin's Manufactory Hypothesis Is Confirmed and Predicts the Extinction Risk of Extant Birds

In the Origin of Species Darwin hypothesized that the “manufactory” of species operates at different rates in different lineages and that the richness of taxonomic units is autocorrelated across levels of the taxonomic hierarchy. We confirm the manufactory hypothesis using a database of all the world's extant avian subspecies, species and genera. The hypothesis is confirmed both in correlations across all genera and in paired comparisons controlling for phylogeny. We also find that the modern risk of extinction, as measured by “Red List” classifications, differs across the different categories of genera identified by Darwin. Specifically, species in “manufactory” genera are less likely to be threatened, endangered or recently extinct than are “weak manufactory” genera. Therefore, although Darwin used his hypothesis to investigate past evolutionary processes, we find that the hypothesis also foreshadows future changes to the evolutionary tree

Women’s health and well-being in low-income formal and informal neighbourhoods on the eve of the armed conflict in Aleppo

Objectives To explore how married women living in low-income formal and informal neighbourhoods in Aleppo, Syria, perceived the effects of neighbourhood on their health and well-being, and the relevance of these findings to future urban rebuilding policies post-conflict. Methods Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with eighteen married women living in informal or socioeconomically disadvantaged formal neighbourhoods in Aleppo in 2011, a year before the armed conflict caused massive destruction in all these neighbourhoods. Results Our findings suggest that the experience of neighbourhood social characteristics is even more critical to women’s sense of well-being than environmental conditions and physical infrastructure. Most prominent was the positive influence of social support on well-being. Conclusions The significance of this study lies, first, in its timing, before the widespread destruction of both formal and informal neighbourhoods in Aleppo and, second, and in its indication of the views of women who lived in marginalised communities on what neighbourhood characteristics mattered to them. Further research post-conflict needs to explore how decisions on urban rebuilding are made and their likely influence on health and well-being

The Molecular Phylogenetic Signature of Clades in Decline

Molecular phylogenies have been used to study the diversification of many clades. However, current methods for inferring diversification dynamics from molecular phylogenies ignore the possibility that clades may be decreasing in diversity, despite the fact that the fossil record shows this to be the case for many groups. Here we investigate the molecular phylogenetic signature of decreasing diversity using the most widely used statistic for inferring diversity dynamics from molecular phylogenies, the γ statistic. We show that if a clade is in decline its molecular phylogeny may show evidence of the decrease in the diversification rate that occurred between its diversification and decline phases. The ability to detect the change in diversification rate depends largely on the ratio of the speciation rates of the diversification and decline phases, the higher the ratio the stronger the signal of the change in diversification rate. Consequently, molecular phylogenies of clades in relative rapid decline do not carry a signature of their decreasing diversification. Further, the signal of the change in diversification rate, if present, declines as the diversity drop. Unfortunately, the molecular signature of clades in decline is the same as the signature produced by diversity dependent diversification. Given this similarity, and the inability of current methods to detect declining diversity, it is likely that some of the extant clades that show a decrease in diversification rate, currently interpreted as evidence for diversity dependent diversification, are in fact in decline. Unless methods can be developed that can discriminate between the different modes of diversification, specifically diversity dependent diversification and declining diversity, we will need the fossil record, or data from some other source, to distinguish between these very different diversity trajectories

Voltinism and resilience to climate-induced phenological mismatch

SJT was supported by NERC grant NE/J02080X/

Mega-evolutionary dynamics of the adaptive radiation of birds

The origin and expansion of biological diversity is regulated by both developmental trajectories and limits on available ecological niches. As lineages diversify, an early and often rapid phase of species and trait proliferation gives way to evolutionary slow- downs as new species pack into ever more densely occupied regions of ecological niche space. Small clades such as Darwin’s finches demonstrate that natural selection is the driving force of adaptive radiations, but how microevolutionary processes scale up to shape the expansion of phenotypic diversity over much longer evolutionary timescales is unclear. Here we address this problem on a global scale by analysing a crowd-sourced dataset of three-dimensional scanned bill morphology from more than 2,000 species. We find that bill diversity expanded early in extant avian evolutionary history, before transitioning to a phase dominated by packing of morphological space. However, this early phenotypic diversification is decoupled from temporal variation in evolutionary rate: rates of bill evolution vary among lineages but are comparatively stable through time. We find that rare, but major, discontinuities in phenotype emerge from rapid increases in rate along single branches, sometimes leading to depauperate clades with unusual bill morphologies. Despite these jumps between groups, the major axes of within-group bill-shape evolution are remarkably consistent across birds. We reveal that macroevolutionary processes underlying global-scale adaptive radiations support Darwinian and Simpsonian ideas of microevolution within adaptive zones and accelerated evolution between distinct adaptive peaks

A Comparison of the Effects of Random and Selective Mass Extinctions on Erosion of Evolutionary History in Communities of Digital Organisms

The effect of mass extinctions on phylogenetic diversity and branching history of clades remains poorly understood in paleobiology. We examined the phylogenies of communities of digital organisms undergoing open-ended evolution as we subjected them to instantaneous “pulse” extinctions, choosing survivors at random, and to prolonged “press” extinctions involving a period of low resource availability. We measured age of the phylogenetic root and tree stemminess, and evaluated how branching history of the phylogenetic trees was affected by the extinction treatments. We found that strong random (pulse) and strong selective extinction (press) both left clear long-term signatures in root age distribution and tree stemminess, and eroded deep branching history to a greater degree than did weak extinction and control treatments. The widely-used Pybus-Harvey gamma statistic showed a clear short-term response to extinction and recovery, but differences between treatments diminished over time and did not show a long-term signature. The characteristics of post-extinction phylogenies were often affected as much by the recovery interval as by the extinction episode itself