Caractérisation de la variabilité interne des modèles régionaux de climat

Les modèles régionaux de climat (MRC) sont maintenant reconnus comme des outils efficaces pour augmenter la résolution des simulations climatiques à un ordre d'environ 50 km. Cette résolution est jugée nécessaire pour décrire de nombreux impacts liés aux changements climatiques. Un modèle régional de climat (MRC) performe une simulation climatique sur une sous-région du globe. Pour cette raison, un MRC doit utiliser des données pilotes au pourtour de la sous-région pour tenir compte de la circulation atmosphérique qui parcourt le globe. Les données provenant d'un MRC sont de plus en plus utilisées par les décideurs pour prendre des mesures d'adaptation adéquates en fonction des changements climatiques projetés. Pour cette raison, les scientifiques qui livrent les données climatiques aux décideurs doivent fournir les données les plus précises possibles. L'une des incertitudes des projections de changements climatiques produites par les MRC est associée au comportement chaotique du système climatique qui est simulé. En raison de ce comportement, le climat simulé avec un MRC peut diverger d'un autre climat simulé lancé avec des conditions initiales légèrement différentes tout en étant en accord avec les mêmes forçages imposés. La variabilité mesurée entre les simulations lancées avec différentes conditions initiales est appelée variabilité interne. La variabilité interne des MRC est étudiée depuis quelques années. Ces études sont généralement limitées par les ensembles de simulations nécessaires au calcul de la variabilité interne. Ces ensembles comportent généralement peu de simulations qui sont courtes et qui sont intégrées sur de petits domaines. Le premier objectif de cette thèse consistait à vérifier les hypothèses émises dans les articles précédents sur la variabilité interne des MRC en utilisant un ensemble de simulations actuel. Afin de répondre à cet objectif, un ensemble comportant dix simulations de dix ans couvrant l'Amérique du nord a été réalisé avec le modèle régional canadien du climat. L'évolution temporelle de la variabilité interne de cet ensemble pour la pression au niveau moyen de la mer (PNM) et pour la température au niveau de l'abri (TA) révèle un cycle annuel faible avec des valeurs en hiver et au printemps légèrement plus élevées. Ce résultat, qui se distingue de celui des études précédentes; suggère que l'augmentation de la dimension du domaine diminue l'efficacité du contrôle du pilote sur le MRC, ce qui augmente la variabilité interne. Pour les variables étudiées, la variabilité interne augmente généralement d'ouest en est du domaine selon la circulation générale vers l'est. Une comparaison de la variabilité interne avec la variabilité temporelle montre que la variabilité interne pour la PNM est près de son maximum en été dans le nord-est du domaine. Une comparaison du climat de dix ans pour la TA en été de chacune des simulations avec la moyenne d'ensemble montre que la variabilité interne peut avoir un impact important sur le climat simulé. Le deuxième objectif de cette thèse consistait à trouver un outil capable de quantifier le contrôle du pilote sur une simulation effectuée avec un MRC. Cet outil est un traceur qui calcule le temps de résidence des parcelles atmosphériques à l'intérieur du domaine d'un MRC. Ce traceur a été utilisé pour première fois dans l'ensemble de simulations décrit précédemment. Les diagnostiques du climat généré par l'ensemble montre le bon fonctionnement du traceur. Le temps de résidence est plus élevé en été qu'en hiver en liaison avec la circulation atmosphérique qui est plus rapide en hiver. Le temps de résidence augmente d'ouest en est à l'intérieur du domaine aussi en relation avec la circulation atmosphérique générale vers l'est. Un diagramme de disperison généré avec les distributions spatiales de la variabilité interne relative des variables étudiées et du temps de résidence montre que la variabilité interne augmente linéairement avec le temps de résidence similairement en été qu'en hiver. Ce résultat appuie plusieurs études précédentes qui proposaient un lien entre la circulation atmosphérique et la variabilité interne. D'après la relation trouvée, le temps de résidence peut être utilisé comme un indicateur quantitatif du contrôle des données pilotes exercé sur un MRC. On envisage que cet outil sera utile pour les analyses futures effectuées avec les MRC. ______________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : Variabilité interne, Modélisation régionale du climat, Ensemble de simulations, Temps de résidence, Climat nord-américain

Evidence of added value in North American regional climate model hindcast simulations using ever-increasing horizontal resolutions

Commonly termed “added value”, the additional regional details gained by high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) over the coarser resolution reanalysis driving data are often indistinguishable at the 0.44° grid mesh computationally affordable large CORDEX domains. In an attempt to highlight the benefits of finer resolutions to study the RCM added value, five North American weather phenomena are evaluated in RCM hindcast simulations using grid meshes of 0.44°, 0.22° and 0.11° with available observations. The results show that the orographic precipitation on the west coast of North America is enhanced and more realistic, with two distinct rain bands in the finer resolution simulation. The spatial distribution of precipitation in August and the high frequency of summer precipitation extremes over southwestern United States reveal that the North American monsoon is improved with increasing resolution. Only the finer RCM simulation shows skill at producing snowbelts around the Great Lakes by capturing lake-effect snow. A comparison of wind roses in the St. Lawrence River Valley indicates that only the finer RCM simulation is able to reproduce wind channeling by resolving complex orography. Finally, the simulation of the summer land-sea breezes by the RCM simulations leads to added value in the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Florida peninsula and the Caribbean islands. Overall, the almost systematic improvements of the finer resolution simulations suggest that higher resolutions, only computationally affordable over smaller domains, might get a higher priority to promote RCM added value

Erratum to: Spatial spin-up of fine scales in a regional climate model simulation driven by low-resolution boundary condition

The capture of the public servant in a criminal investigation is subject to special rules and different to those for the capture of individuals, since the imprisonment of an official can affect continuity, speed and efficiency of the civil service, an equally important constitutional value. Therefore, as a rule capturing the public servant must be preceded by a request for suspensión by the prosecution, and to proceed without suspension, the prosecutor in his providence should motivate the reasons and arguments why not affects the normal functioning of public administration. The lack of motivation for this essential aspect, affords a fact that becomes appropriate procedural habeas corpus as an effective mechanism guarantees of personal freedom. Similarly appropriate habeas corpus when catching public server ordered by a prosecutor without functional competence to advance research, by setting a path made by organic defect.La captura del servidor público investigado en un proceso penal está sujeta a reglas especiales y diversas a las previstas para la captura de los particulares, por cuanto la privación de la libertad de un funcionario puede afectar la continuidad, celeridad y eficacia de la función pública, como un valor constitucional igualmente relevante. Por tal motivo, como regla general,la captura del servidor público debe estar precedida de la solicitud de suspensión por parte de la Fiscalía General de la Nación y para que proceda sin suspensión previa, el fiscal debe consignar en su providencia las razones y argumentos por los cuales no se afecta el normal funcionamiento de la administración pública. La ausencia de motivación de este aspecto esencial constituye una vía de hecho procedimental que torna procedente la acción de habeas corpus, como mecanismo efectivo de garantía de la libertad personal. De igual manera, procede el habeas corpus cuando la captura del servidor público la ordena un fiscal sin competencia funcional para adelantar la investigación, por configuración de una vía de hecho por defecto orgánico

Spatial spin-up of fine scales in a regional climate model simulation driven by low-resolution boundary conditions

In regional climate modelling, it is well known that domains should be neither too large to avoid a large departure from the driving data, nor too small to provide a sufficient distance from the lateral inflow boundary to allow the full development of the small-scale (SS) features permitted by the finer resolution. Although most practitioners of dynamical downscaling are well aware that the jump of resolution between the lateral boundary condition (LBC) driving data and the nested regional climate model affects the simulated climate, this issue has not been fully investigated. In principle, as the jump of resolution becomes larger, the region of interest in the limited-area domain should be located further away from the lateral inflow boundary to allow the full development of the SS features. A careless choice of domain might result in a suboptimal use of the full finer resolution potential to develop fine-scale features. To address this issue, regional climate model (RCM) simulations using various resolution driving data are compared following the perfect-prognostic Big-Brother protocol. Several experiments were carried out to evaluate the width of the spin-up region (i.e. the distance between the lateral inflow boundary and the domain of interest required for the full development of SS transient eddies) as a function of the RCM and LBC resolutions, as well as the resolution jump. The spin-up distance turns out to be a function of the LBC resolution only, independent of the RCM resolution. When varying the RCM resolution for a given resolution jump, it is found that the spin-up distance corresponds to a fixed number of RCM grid points that is a function of resolution jump only. These findings can serve a useful purpose to guide the choice of domain and RCM configuration for an optimal development of the small scales allowed by the increased resolution of the nested model

A metrics-based analysis of seasonal daily precipitation and near-surface temperature within seven Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment domains

We compare ensemble mean daily precipitation and near-surface temperatures from regional climate model simulations over seven Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment domains for the winter and summer seasons. We use Taylor diagrams to show the domain-wide pattern similarity between the model ensemble and the observational data sets. We use the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the University of Delaware gridded observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data as an additional observationally based estimate of historical climatology. Taylor diagrams determine the relative skill of the seven sets of simulations and quantify these results in terms of center pattern root-mean square error and correlation coefficient. Results suggest that there is good agreement between the models and the CRU, in terms of their respective seasonal cycles, as shown in Taylor diagrams and bias plots. There is also good agreement between both gridded observation sets. In addition, downscaled ERA-Interim precipitation is closer to observations than raw ERA-Interim precipitation. Domains located in the low latitudes and those having high topography appear to have larger biases, especially precipitation.Fil: Glisan, Justin M.. IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY (ISU);Fil: Jones, Richard. No especifíca;Fil: Lennard, Chris. University of Cape Town; SudáfricaFil: Castillo Pérez, Nadia Itzel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Lucas Picher, Philippe. Université du Québec a Montreal; CanadáFil: Rinke, Annette. Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research; AlemaniaFil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Gutowski, William J.. IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY (ISU)

Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies

Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of improbable models in the results and easing the decision-making process. In this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts. For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment - European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the selected models based on a training material that describes the overall model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models.This work was funded by the project AQUA-CLEW, which is part of ERA4CS (European Research Area for Climate Services), an ERANET (European Research Area Net-work) initiated by JPI Climate (Joint Programming Initiative) andfunded by Formas (Sweden); German Aerospace Center (DLR, Germany); Ministry of Education, Science and Research (BMBWF,Austria); Innovation Fund Denmark; Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation (MINECO, Spain); and French National Research Agency with co-funding by the European Commission (grant no. 69046). The contribution of Philippe Lucas-Picher was supported by the French National Research Agency (future investment programme no. ANR-18-MPGA-0005). Rafael Pimentel acknowledges funding by the Modality 5.2 of the Programa Propio 2018 of the University of Córdoba and the Juan de la Cierva Incorporación programme of the Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant no. IJC2018-038093-I). Rafael Pimentel and María J. Polo are members of DAUCO (Unit of Excellence reference no. CEX2019-000968-M), with financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and the Spanish State Research Agency, through the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence and María de Maeztu Unit of Excellence in research and development (R&D)

How does large-scale nudging in a regional climate model contribute to improving the simulation of weather regimes and seasonal extremes over North America?

International audienc

Est-ce qu'un modèle de climat à haute résolution permet d'améliorer la simulation des crues rapides ? Cas d'étude sur un bassin versant méditerranéen

International audienc

Does a convection-permitting climate model improve the simulation of flash floods ? A case study over a Mediterranean watershed

International audienceExtreme rainfall and associated river floodings are important concerns in modern human societies. Despite a recent increase of extreme rainfall, there is no evidence of an increase of the intensity and frequency of flash floods in Southern Europe, and future projections of flash-floods are quite uncertain in part due to the coarse resolution of available climate model simulations.The recent development of convection-permitting climate models allow a better representation of precipitation extremes. This new generation of climate models have been little employed in combination with hydrological models up to now, and their added value for flash flood modeling remains to be identified.In this work, a 2.5-km convection-permitting climate model (CNRM-AROME) simulation is used to force two hydrological models (CREST and GR5H). This new modeling chain is tested in a French mediterranean catchment, the Gardon at Anduze, that experienced severe flash flooding episodes over the last decades. Hydrological models are calibrated using the COMEPHORE 1 km observed precipitation dataset merging radar and rain gauge rainfall at the hourly time step. We compare the CNRM-AROME-based hydrological simulation to a benchmark run driven by a conventional CORDEX 12-km CNRM-ALADIN simulation. The analysis of the peak discharges simulated by both hydrological models driven by the different meteorological inputs allows to determine how higher resolution precipitation could improve the simulation of flash floods