External Subsidies and Lasting Peace

Third parties are thought to face a trade-off in that those actions most likely to bring peace in the short run appear least likely to ensure its long-run stability. Yet the trade-off between conflict management and conflict resolution may be overstated. Analyzing an iterated three-player bargaining model with both information and commitment problems, we first demonstrate two conditions under which third parties may produce lasting peace through conditional subsidies, even without addressing underlying informational or commitment problems. Second, we illustrate this possibility by analyzing the impact of US foreign aid on patterns of conflict and peace between Israel and her neighbors. Our analysis indicates that the termination of the rivalry between Israel and Egypt was most likely not brought about by the Camp David accords or peacekeeping operations, but by sustained foreign aid provision. We discuss the implications for both this conflict and conflict management more broadly. </jats:p

Selectorate theory, the democratic peace, and public goods provision

We show that without a few peculiar modeling choices that are not justified by the core assumptions of the theory, selectorate theory neither unambiguously predicts the democratic peace nor that leaders of more inclusive regimes will rely upon the provision of public goods to remain in office, though they may be more likely to provide club goods. We illustrate these claims using relatively simple models that incorporate the core assumptions of their theory, while avoiding modeling choices we believe to be less appropriate. We argue for a revised version of selectorate theory, one that continues to emphasize the importance of the size of the winning coalition, yet we believe it provides a more realistic picture of democratic politics.</jats:p

Brain metabolic changes across King’s stages in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a 18 F-2-fluoro-2-deoxy- d -glucose-positron emission tomography study

Abstract: Purpose: To assess the brain metabolic correlates of the different regional extent of ALS, evaluated with the King’s staging system, using brain 18F-2-fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose-PET (18F-FDG-PET). Methods: Three hundred ninety ALS cases with King’s stages 1, 2, and 3 (n = 390), i.e., involvement of 1, 2, and 3 body regions respectively, underwent brain 18F-FDG-PET at diagnosis. King’s stage at PET was derived from ALSFRS-R and was regressed out against whole-brain metabolism in the whole sample. The full factorial design confirmed the hypothesis that differences among groups (King’s 1, King’s 2, King’s 3, and 40 healthy controls (HC)) existed overall. Comparisons among stages and between each group and HC were performed. We included age at PET and sex as covariates. Results: Brain metabolism was inversely correlated with stage in medial frontal gyrus bilaterally, and right precentral and postcentral gyri. The full factorial design resulted in a significant main effect of groups. There was no significant difference between stages 1 and 2. Comparing stage 3 to stage 1+2, a significant relative hypometabolism was highlighted in the former in the left precentral and medial frontal gyri, and in the right medial frontal, postcentral, precentral, and middle frontal gyri. The comparisons between each group and HC showed the extension of frontal metabolic changes from stage 1 to stage 3, with the larger metabolic gap between stages 2 and 3. Conclusions: Our findings support the hypothesis that in ALS, the propagation of neurodegeneration follows a corticofugal, regional ordered pattern, extending from the motor cortex to posterior and anterior regions

New insights into perinatal testicular torsion

Perinatal testicular torsion is a relatively rare event that remains unrecognized in many patients or is suspected and treated accordingly only after an avoidable loss of time. The authors report their own experience with several patients, some of them quite atypical but instructive. Missed bilateral torsion is an issue, as are partial torsion, possible antenatal signs, and late presentation. These data are discussed together with the existing literature and may help shed new light on the natural course of testicular torsion and its treatment. The most important conclusion is that a much higher index of suspicion based on clinical findings is needed for timely detection of perinatal torsion. It is the authors’ opinion that immediate surgery is mandatory not only in suspected bilateral torsions but also in cases of possible unilateral torsions. There is no place for a more fatalistic “wait-and-see” approach. Whenever possible, even necrotic testes should not be removed during surgery because some endocrine function may be retained

Enterprise Risk Management: Review, Critique, and Research Directions

Many regulators, rating agencies, executives and academics have advocated a new approach to risk management: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM). ERM proposes the integrated management of all the risks an organization faces, which inherently requires alignment of risk management with corporate governance and strategy. Academic research on ERM is still in its infancy, with articles largely in accounting and finance journals but rarely in management journals. We argue that ERM offers an important new research domain for management scholars. A critical review of ERM research allows us to identify limitations and gaps that management scholars are best equipped to address. This paper not only identifies how management scholars can contribute to ERM research, but also points out why ERM research (and practice) needs management research for its development. (C) Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Crisis bargaining, domestic opposition, and tragic wars

Why do democracies sometimes fight long, politically divisive wars that end poorly? I argue that electoral accountability, induced by party competition, can sometimes promote this and other tragic outcomes. To demonstrate this, I analyze a bargaining model in which one state is conceived of as a unitary actor while the other consists of a government and an opposition that is motivated both by electoral ambition and concern for the national interest. Perhaps surprisingly, it is the opposition’s concern for the national interest that causes the most tragic outcomes, as they may choose not to advocate peace when doing so would prevent war so as to avoid undercutting the government’s bargaining position. I close with a discussion of why the United States appears to be particularly prone to such tragic outcomes, treating the Vietnam War as an illustrative example

Incentives to Rebel, Bargaining, and Civil War

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