CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

CMB-S4---the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment---is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semi-analytic projection tool, targeted explicitly towards optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2--3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semi-analytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for $r > 0.003$ at greater than $5\sigma$, or, in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of $r < 0.001$ at $95\%$ CL.Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures, 9 tables, submitted to ApJ. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1907.0447

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

Abstract: CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world

DataSheet_1_Intracellular trafficking of fatty acids in the fish intestinal epithelial cell line RTgutGC.pdf

The shift towards higher inclusion of vegetable oils (VOs) in aquafeeds has resulted in major changes in dietary fatty acid composition, especially increased amounts of monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) and decreased polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and saturated fatty acids (SFAs). However, little is known about how this change in fatty acid (FA) profile affects the intracellular fate of these fatty acids in the intestinal cells. To investigate this topic, we used the rainbow trout intestinal epithelial cell line (RTgutGC) as an in vitro model. The cells were incubated with either palmitic acid (16:0, PA), oleic acid (18:1n-9, OA), or arachidonic acid (20:4n-6, ARA), to represent the SFA, MUFA, and PUFA, respectively. In all experiments, the RTgutGC were incubated with either non-labeled or radiolabeled FA (PA, OA, or ARA) for 16 h at 190C. The cells were then analyzed for the occurrence of cytosolic lipid droplets (CLD) with confocal microscopy, transcriptomic analysis (non-labeled FA experiments) and lipid class composition in the cells and serosal media from the basolateral side of the cells (radiolabeled FA experiments). CLD accumulation was higher in RTgutGC exposed to OA compared to cells given PA or ARA. This was coupled with increased volume, diameter, and surface area of CLDs in OA treated cells than with other FAs (PA, ARA). The results from radiolabeled FAs performed on permeable transwell inserts showed that OA increased the triacylglycerides (TAG) synthesis and was primarily stored in the cells in CLDs; whereas a significant amount of ARA was transported as TAG to the basolateral compartment. A significant proportion of free FAs was found to be excreted to the serosal basolateral side by the cells, which was significantly higher for PA and OA than ARA. Although there were clear clusters in differentially expressed genes (DEGs) for each treatment group, results from transcriptomics did not correlate to lipid transport and CLD analysis. Overall, the accumulation of TAG in CLDs was higher for oleic acid (OA) compared to arachidonic acid (ARA) and palmitic acid (PA). To conclude, carbon chain length and saturation level of FA differently regulate their intracellular fate during fatty acid absorption.</p

DataSheet_2_Intracellular trafficking of fatty acids in the fish intestinal epithelial cell line RTgutGC.pdf

The shift towards higher inclusion of vegetable oils (VOs) in aquafeeds has resulted in major changes in dietary fatty acid composition, especially increased amounts of monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) and decreased polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and saturated fatty acids (SFAs). However, little is known about how this change in fatty acid (FA) profile affects the intracellular fate of these fatty acids in the intestinal cells. To investigate this topic, we used the rainbow trout intestinal epithelial cell line (RTgutGC) as an in vitro model. The cells were incubated with either palmitic acid (16:0, PA), oleic acid (18:1n-9, OA), or arachidonic acid (20:4n-6, ARA), to represent the SFA, MUFA, and PUFA, respectively. In all experiments, the RTgutGC were incubated with either non-labeled or radiolabeled FA (PA, OA, or ARA) for 16 h at 190C. The cells were then analyzed for the occurrence of cytosolic lipid droplets (CLD) with confocal microscopy, transcriptomic analysis (non-labeled FA experiments) and lipid class composition in the cells and serosal media from the basolateral side of the cells (radiolabeled FA experiments). CLD accumulation was higher in RTgutGC exposed to OA compared to cells given PA or ARA. This was coupled with increased volume, diameter, and surface area of CLDs in OA treated cells than with other FAs (PA, ARA). The results from radiolabeled FAs performed on permeable transwell inserts showed that OA increased the triacylglycerides (TAG) synthesis and was primarily stored in the cells in CLDs; whereas a significant amount of ARA was transported as TAG to the basolateral compartment. A significant proportion of free FAs was found to be excreted to the serosal basolateral side by the cells, which was significantly higher for PA and OA than ARA. Although there were clear clusters in differentially expressed genes (DEGs) for each treatment group, results from transcriptomics did not correlate to lipid transport and CLD analysis. Overall, the accumulation of TAG in CLDs was higher for oleic acid (OA) compared to arachidonic acid (ARA) and palmitic acid (PA). To conclude, carbon chain length and saturation level of FA differently regulate their intracellular fate during fatty acid absorption.</p

Effect of organic and inorganic dietary selenium supplementation in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss broodstock on the oxidative status in progeny

RésuméRésuméEffect of organic and inorganic dietary selenium supplementation in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss broodstock on the oxidative status in progeny. World Aquaculture 201

Parental and direct feeding effects of dietary selenium in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fry

Session Nutrition: Physiology and RequirementsParental and direct feeding effects of dietary selenium in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fry. Aquaculture Europe 201

Arsenic speciation and arsenic feed-to-fish transfer in Atlantic salmon fed marine low trophic feeds based blue mussel and kelp

Background: Aquaculture aims to reduce the environmental and climate footprints of feed production. Consequently, low trophic marine (LTM) resources such as blue mussels and kelp are potential candidates to be used as ingredients in salmon feed. It is relevant to study potential undesirables associated with their use, as well as assessing food safety by investigating their transfer from feed-to-fish. The marine biota is well known to contain relatively high levels of arsenic (As), which may be present in different organic forms depending on marine biota type and trophic position. Thus, it is important to not only obtain data on the concentrations of As, but also on the As species present in the raw materials, feed and farmed salmon when being fed novel LTM feed resources.Methods: Atlantic salmon were fed experimental diets for 70 days. A total of nine diets were prepared: four diets containing up to 4 % fermented kelp, three diets containing up to 11 % blue mussel silage, and one diet containing 12 % blue mussel meal, in addition to a standard reference diet containing 25 % fish meal. Concentrations of As and As species in feeds, faeces, liver and fillet of Atlantic salmon were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to ICP-MS (HPLC-ICP-MS), respectively.Results: The use of kelp or blue mussel-based feed ingredients increased the concentration of total As, but maximum level as defined in Directive 2002/32 EC and amendments was not exceeded. The concentrations found in the experimental feeds ranged from 3.4 mg kg−1 to 4.6 mg kg−1 ww. Arsenic speciation in the feed varied based on the ingredient, with arsenobetaine dominating in all feed samples (36–60 % of the total As), while arsenosugars (5.2–8.9 % of the total As) were abundant in kelp-included feed. The intestinal uptake of total As ranged from 67 % to 83 %, but retention in fillet only ranged from 2 % to 22 % and in liver from 0.3 % to 0.6 %, depending on the marine source used. Fish fed feeds containing blue mussel showed higher intestinal uptake of total As when compared with fish fed feeds containing fermented kelp. Fish fed fermented kelp-based feeds had higher retained concentrations of total As when comparing with fish fed feeds containing blue mussel. Despite relatively high intestinal uptake of total As, inorganic and organic As, the retained concentrations of As did not reflect the same trend.Conclusion: Although the use of LTM feed ingredients increased the level of total As in this feeds, salmon reared on these diets did not show increased total As levels. The well-known toxic inorganic As forms were not detected in salmon muscle reared on LTM diets, and the non-toxic organic AsB was the dominant As species that was retained in salmon muscle, while the organic AsSug forms were not. This study shows that speciation analysis of the LTM resources provides valuable information of the feed-to-fish transfer of As, needed to assess the food safety of farmed Atlantic salmon reared on novel low trophic feeds