24 research outputs found

    Specimens at the Center: An Informatics Workflow and Toolkit for Specimen-level analysis of Public DNA database data

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    Major public DNA databases — NCBI GenBank, the DNA DataBank of Japan (DDBJ), and the European Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL) — are invaluable biodiversity libraries. Systematists and other biodiversity scientists commonly mine these databases for sequence data to use in phylogenetic studies, but such studies generally use only the taxonomic identity of the sequenced tissue, not the specimen identity. Thus studies that use DNA supermatrices to construct phylogenetic trees with species at the tips typically do not take advantage of the fact that for many individuals in the public DNA databases, several DNA regions have been sampled; and for many species, two or more individuals have been sampled. Thus these studies typically do not make full use of the multigene datasets in public DNA databases to test species coherence and select optimal sequences to represent a species. In this study, we introduce a set of tools developed in the R programming language to construct individual-based trees from NCBI GenBank data and present a set of trees for the genus Carex (Cyperaceae) constructed using these methods. For the more than 770 species for which we found sequence data, our approach recovered an average of 1.85 gene regions per specimen, up to seven for some specimens, and more than 450 species represented by two or more specimens. Depending on the subset of genes analyzed, we found up to 42% of species monophyletic. We introduce a simple tree statistic—the Taxonomic Disparity Index (TDI)—to assist in curating specimen-level datasets and provide code for selecting maximally informative (or, conversely, minimally misleading) sequences as species exemplars. While tailored to the Carex dataset, the approach and code presented in this paper can readily be generalized to constructing individual-level trees from large amounts of data for any species group

    Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

    Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Get PDF
    BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

    A Time and a Place for Everything: Phylogenetic history and geography as joint predictors of oak plastome phylogeny

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    Due to high rates of introgressive hybridization, the plastid genome is poorly suited to fine-scale DNA barcoding and phylogenetic studies of the oak genus (Quercus, Fagaceae). At the tips of the oak plastome phylogeny, recent gene migration and reticulation generally cause topology to reflect geographic structure, while deeper branches reflect lineage divergence. In this study, we quantify the simple and partial effects of geographic proximity and nucleome-inferred phylogenetic history on oak plastome phylogeny at different evolutionary scales. Our study compares pairwise phylogenetic distances based on complete plastome sequences, pairwise phylogenetic distances from nuclear restriction site-associated DNA sequences (RADseq), and pairwise geographic distances for 34 individuals of the white oak clade representing 24 North American and Eurasian species. Within the North American white oak clade alone, phylogenetic history has essentially no effect on plastome variation, while geography explains 11–21% of plastome phylogenetic variance. However, across multiple continents and clades, phylogeny predicts 30–41% of plastome variation, geography 3–41%. Tipwise attenuation of phylogenetic informativeness in the plastome means that in practical terms, plastome data has little use in solving phylogenetic questions, but can still be a useful barcoding / phylogenetic marker for resolving questions among major clades.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

    Text-fig. 4. Reconstruction of Quinquala obovata fruits; artwork by K. K. Pham. in Winged Fruits Of Rutaceous Affinity From The Eocene Of Western North America

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    Text-fig. 4. Reconstruction of Quinquala obovata fruits; artwork by K. K. Pham.Published as part of Manchester, Steven R., Disney, Kory A. & Pham, Kasey K., 2020, Winged Fruits Of Rutaceous Affinity From The Eocene Of Western North America, pp. 211-216 in Fossil Imprint 76 (2) on page 215, DOI: 10.37520/fi.2020.018, http://zenodo.org/record/538617

    Quinquala obovata MANCHESTER et DISNEY 2020, sp. nov.

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    <i>Quinquala obovata</i> MANCHESTER et DISNEY sp. nov. <p>Text-figs 2, 3a–g, i, j, 4</p> <p>H o l o t y p e. UF 19376-60038 (Text-fig. 2a) housed in</p> <p>Florida Museum of Natural History, Gainesville, USA.</p> <p>P a r a t y p e s. UF 19376-60023a (Text-fig. 2b), UF 19374-60339 (Text-fig. 2c), UF 19376-60050 (Text-fig. 2d), UF 19374-61756 (Text-fig. 2e), UF 19376-60067 (Textfig. 2f, p), UF 19376-60069 (Text-figs 2i, 3e), UF 19376- 60072 (Text-fig. 2j), UF 19376-60062 (Text-figs 2l, 3f), UF 19374-60403 (Text-fig. 2m), UF 19376-60023b (Textfig. 3a), UF 19376-60023c (Text-fig. 3b), UF 262-17690 (Text-fig. 3c, g), UF 229-53091 (Text-fig. 3d) housed in Florida Museum of Natural History, Gainesville, USA.</p> <p>P l a n t F o s s i l N a m e s R e g i s t r y N u m b e r.</p> <p>PFN001528 (for new species).</p> <p> E t y m o l o g y. The epithet, <i>obovata</i> refers to the fruit shape.</p> <p>T y p e l o c a l i t y. Kisinger Lakes, northwestern</p> <p>Wyoming, USA (UF 19376: N 43° 42.056′, W 109° 52.918′).</p> <p>T y p e h o r i z o n a n d a g e. Tepee Trail Formation,</p> <p>Eocene.</p> <p>A d d i t i o n a l l o c a l i t i e s. Kisinger Lakes (UF 19374: N 43° 42′ 01.9″, W 109° 52′ 44.9″; UF 19375: N 43° 42′ 03.0″, W 109° 52′ 53.3″), West Branch Creek, northcentral Oregon, USA (UF 229: N 44° 34′ 53.40″, W 120° 15′ 57.31″; UF 230: N 44° 35′ 25.31″, W 120° 15′ 27.83″; Eocene Clarno Formation), White Cliffs, northcentral Oregon (UF 262: N 44° 44.302′, W 120° 28.376′; Eocene Clarno Formation).</p> <p>D i a g n o s i s. Fruits single, obovate, 1.1–1.7 times longer than wide. Fruit apex rounded, without a stylar protrusion. Base cuneate and rounded, margins entire. Locular area oblanceolate. Five thick longitudinal wings, veins obscure. Wing and fruit body dotted with circular glands. Fruit borne on pedicel with prominent perianth scar at the junction of pedicel and fruit base. Narrow disk scar located immediately below the perianth scar.</p> <p>D e s c r i p t i o n. Fruits single, obovate, 9–15 mm long and 6–11 mm wide with a length/width ratio of 1.1–1.7, avg. 1.4. Fruit apex rounded, without a stylar protrusion. Base cuneate and rounded, margins entire. Locular area oblanceolate. Five thick longitudinal wings, veins obscure. Wing and fruit body dotted with circular glands 80–110 μm, avg. 100 μm diameter. Fruit borne on pedicel 10–13 mm long and 0.6–1.3 mm thick, with prominent perianth scar at the junction of pedicel and fruit base. Narrow disk scar located immediately below the perianth scar.</p>Published as part of <i>Manchester, Steven R., Disney, Kory A. & Pham, Kasey K., 2020, Winged Fruits Of Rutaceous Affinity From The Eocene Of Western North America, pp. 211-216 in Fossil Imprint 76 (2)</i> on page 213, DOI: 10.37520/fi.2020.018, <a href="http://zenodo.org/record/5386172">http://zenodo.org/record/5386172</a&gt

    Phylogenomic inferences from reference-mapped and de novo assembled short-read sequence data using RADseq sequencing of California white oaks (Quercus subgenus Quercus)

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    The emergence of next generation sequencing has increased by several orders of magnitude the amount of data available for phylogenetics. Reduced representation approaches, such as restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq), have proven useful for phylogenetic studies of non-model species at a wide range of phylogenetic depths. However, analysis of these datasets is not uniform and we know little about the potential benefits and drawbacks of de novo assembly versus assembly by mapping to a reference genome. Using RADseq data for 83 oak samples representing 16 Quercus taxa , we identified variants via three pipelines: mapping sequence reads to a recently published draft genome of Quercus lobata, and de novo assembly under two sets of locus filters. For each pipeline, we inferred the maximum likelihood phylogeny. All pipelines produced similar trees, with minor shifts in relationships within well-supported clades, despite the fact that they yielded different numbers of loci (68K â 111K loci) and different degrees of overlap with the reference genome. We conclude that both the reference-aligned and de novo assembly pipelines yield reliable results, and that advantages and disadvantages of these approaches pertain mainly to downstream uses of RADseq data, not to phylogenetic inference per se.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

    Specimens at the Center: An Informatics Workflow and Toolkit for Specimen-level analysis of Public DNA database data

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    Pham, Kasey K. [et al.]Major public DNA databases — NCBI GenBank, the DNA DataBank of Japan (DDBJ), and the European Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL) — are invaluable biodiversity libraries. Systematists and other biodiversity scientists commonly mine these databases for sequence data to use in phylogenetic studies, but such studies generally use only the taxonomic identity of the sequenced tissue, not the specimen identity. Thus studies that use DNA supermatrices to construct phylogenetic trees with species at the tips typically do not take advantage of the fact that for many individuals in the public DNA databases, several DNA regions have been sampled; and for many species, two or more individuals have been sampled. Thus these studies typically do not make full use of the multigene datasets in public DNA databases to test species coherence and select optimal sequences to represent a species. In this study, we introduce a set of tools developed in the R programming language to construct individual-based trees from NCBI GenBank data and present a set of trees for the genus Carex (Cyperaceae) constructed using these methods. For the more than 770 species for which we found sequence data, our approach recovered an average of 1.85 gene regions per specimen, up to seven for some specimens, and more than 450 species represented by two or more specimens. Depending on the subset of genes analyzed, we found up to 42% of species monophyletic. We introduce a simple tree statistic—the Taxonomic Disparity Index (TDI)—to assist in curating specimen-level datasets and provide code for selecting maximally informative (or, conversely, minimally misleading) sequences as species exemplars. While tailored to the Carex dataset, the approach and code presented in this paper can readily be generalized to constructing individual-level trees from large amounts of data for any species group.Funding for this work was provided by the National Science Foundation (Award #1255901 to ALH andMJWand Award #1256033 to EHR), including an REU supplement that supported KKP’s work.Peer reviewe
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