Observed Changes in the Lifetime and Amplitude of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Associated with Interannual ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is analysed using the reanalysis zonal wind and satellite outgoing longwave radiation-based indices of Wheeler and Hendon for the 1974-2005 period. The average life time of MJO events varies with season, being 36 days for events whose central date occurs in December, and 48 days for events in September. The life time of the MJO in the equinoctial seasons (March-May and October-December) is also dependent on the state of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During October-December it is only 32 days under El Nino conditions, increasing to 48 days under La Nina conditions, with similar values in northern spring. This difference is due to faster eastward propagation of the MJO convective anomalies through the Maritime Continent and western Pacific during El Nino, consistent with theoretical arguments concerning equatorial wave speeds. The analysis is extended back to 1950 by using an alternative definition of the MJO based on just the zonal wind component of the Wheeler and Hendon indices. A rupture in the amplitude of the MJO is found in 1975, at the same time as the well known rupture in the ENSO time series, that has been associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The mean amplitude of the MJO is 16% larger in the post-rupture period (1976-2005) compared to the pre-rupture period (1950-1975). Before the 1975 rupture, the amplitude of the MJO is a maximum (minimum) under El Nino (La Nina) conditions during northern winter, and a minimum (maximum) under El Nino (La Nina) conditions during northern summer. After the rupture, this relationship disappears. When the MJO-ENSO relationship is analysed using all year round data, or a shorter data set, as in some previous studies, no relationship is found

A procedure for the change point problem in parametric models based on phi-divergence test-statistics

This paper studies the change point problem for a general parametric, univariate or multivariate family of distributions. An information theoretic procedure is developed which is based on general divergence measures for testing the hypothesis of the existence of a change. For comparing the accuracy of the new test-statistic a simulation study is performed for the special case of a univariate discrete model. Finally, the procedure proposed in this paper is illustrated through a classical change-point example

PARP inhibition enhances tumor cell-intrinsic immunity in ERCC1-deficient non-small cell lung cancer.

The cyclic GMP-AMP synthase/stimulator of IFN genes (cGAS/STING) pathway detects cytosolic DNA to activate innate immune responses. Poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors (PARPi) selectively target cancer cells with DNA repair deficiencies such as those caused by BRCA1 mutations or ERCC1 defects. Using isogenic cell lines and patient-derived samples, we showed that ERCC1-defective non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cells exhibit an enhanced type I IFN transcriptomic signature and that low ERCC1 expression correlates with increased lymphocytic infiltration. We demonstrated that clinical PARPi, including olaparib and rucaparib, have cell-autonomous immunomodulatory properties in ERCC1-defective NSCLC and BRCA1-defective triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) cells. Mechanistically, PARPi generated cytoplasmic chromatin fragments with characteristics of micronuclei; these were found to activate cGAS/STING, downstream type I IFN signaling, and CCL5 secretion. Importantly, these effects were suppressed in PARP1-null TNBC cells, suggesting that this phenotype resulted from an on-target effect of PARPi on PARP1. PARPi also potentiated IFN-γ-induced PD-L1 expression in NSCLC cell lines and in fresh patient tumor cells; this effect was enhanced in ERCC1-deficient contexts. Our data provide a preclinical rationale for using PARPi as immunomodulatory agents in appropriately molecularly selected populations

Bayesian Computation with Intractable Likelihoods

This article surveys computational methods for posterior inference with intractable likelihoods, that is where the likelihood function is unavailable in closed form, or where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible. We review recent developments in pseudo-marginal methods, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), the exchange algorithm, thermodynamic integration, and composite likelihood, paying particular attention to advancements in scalability for large datasets. We also mention R and MATLAB source code for implementations of these algorithms, where they are available.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1503.0806

Incorporation of Local Structural Preference Potential Improves Fold Recognition

Fold recognition, or threading, is a popular protein structure modeling approach that uses known structure templates to build structures for those of unknown. The key to the success of fold recognition methods lies in the proper integration of sequence, physiochemical and structural information. Here we introduce another type of information, local structural preference potentials of 3-residue and 9-residue fragments, for fold recognition. By combining the two local structural preference potentials with the widely used sequence profile, secondary structure information and hydrophobic score, we have developed a new threading method called FR-t5 (fold recognition by use of 5 terms). In benchmark testings, we have found the consideration of local structural preference potentials in FR-t5 not only greatly enhances the alignment accuracy and recognition sensitivity, but also significantly improves the quality of prediction models

New insights into the neolithisation process in southwest Europe according to spatial density analysis from calibrated radiocarbon dates

The agricultural way of life spreads throughout Europe via two main routes: the Danube corridor and the Mediterranean basin. Current archaeological literature describes the arrival to the Western Mediterranean as a rapid process which involves both demic and cultural models, and in this regard, the dispersal movement has been investigated using mathematical models, where the key factors are time and space. In this work, we have created a compilation of all available radiocarbon dates for the whole of Iberia, in order to draw a chronological series of maps to illustrate temporal and spatial patterns in the neolithisation process. The maps were prepared by calculating the calibrated 14C date probability density curves, as a proxy to show the spatial dynamics of the last hunter-gatherers and first farmers. Several scholars have pointed out problems linked with the variability of samples, such as the overrepresentation of some sites, the degree of regional research, the nature of the dated samples and above all the archaeological context, but we are confident that the selected dates, after applying some filters and statistical protocols, constitute a good way to approach settlement spatial patterns in Iberia at the time of the neolithisation process

On the interpretation of removable interactions: A survey of the field 33 years after Loftus

In a classic 1978 Memory &Cognition article, Geoff Loftus explained why noncrossover interactions are removable. These removable interactions are tied to the scale of measurement for the dependent variable and therefore do not allow unambiguous conclusions about latent psychological processes. In the present article, we present concrete examples of how this insight helps prevent experimental psychologists from drawing incorrect conclusions about the effects of forgetting and aging. In addition, we extend the Loftus classification scheme for interactions to include those on the cusp between removable and nonremovable. Finally, we use various methods (i.e., a study of citation histories, a questionnaire for psychology students and faculty members, an analysis of statistical textbooks, and a review of articles published in the 2008 issue of Psychology andAging) to show that experimental psychologists have remained generally unaware of the concept of removable interactions. We conclude that there is more to interactions in a 2 × 2 design than meets the eye

A systematic review of rodent pest research in Afro-Malagasy small-holder farming systems: Are we asking the right questions?

Rodent pests are especially problematic in terms of agriculture and public health since they can inflict considerable economic damage associated with their abundance, diversity, generalist feeding habits and high reproductive rates. To quantify rodent pest impacts and identify trends in rodent pest research impacting on small-holder agriculture in the Afro-Malagasy region we did a systematic review of research outputs from 1910 to 2015, by developing an a priori defined set of criteria to allow for replication of the review process. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We reviewed 162 publications, and while rodent pest research was spatially distributed across Africa (32 countries, including Madagascar), there was a disparity in number of studies per country with research biased towards four countries (Tanzania [25%], Nigeria [9%], Ethiopia [9%], Kenya [8%]) accounting for 51% of all rodent pest research in the Afro-Malagasy region. There was a disparity in the research themes addressed by Tanzanian publications compared to publications from the rest of the Afro-Malagasy region where research in Tanzania had a much more applied focus (50%) compared to a more basic research approach (92%) in the rest of the Afro-Malagasy region. We found that pest rodents have a significant negative effect on the Afro-Malagasy small-holder farming communities. Crop losses varied between cropping stages, storage and crops and the highest losses occurred during early cropping stages (46% median loss during seedling stage) and the mature stage (15% median loss). There was a scarcity of studies investigating the effectiveness of various management actions on rodent pest damage and population abundance. Our analysis highlights that there are inadequate empirical studies focused on developing sustainable control methods for rodent pests and rodent pests in the Africa-Malagasy context is generally ignored as a research topic