Revision of conjectures about the opponent's utilities in signaling games.

In this paper we apply the concept of preference conjecture equilibrium introduced in Perea (2003) to signaling games and show its relation to sequential equilibrium. Furthermore, we introduce the concept of minimum revision equilibrium and show how this can be interpreted as a refinement of sequential equilibrium. We also present a method to compute preference conjecture equilibria.econometrics;

Investigating the role of language in children's early educational outcomes

Most children develop speech and language skills effortlessly, but some are slow to develop these skills and then go on to struggle with literacy and academic skills throughout their schooling. It is the first few years of life that are critical to their subsequent performance.\ud This project looks at what we know about the early communication environment in a child’s first two years of life, and the role this plays in preparing children for school using data from a large longitudinal survey of young people (ALSPAC - the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children).\ud It examines the characteristics of the environment in which children learn to communicate (such as activities undertaken with children, the mother’s attitude towards her baby, and the wider support available to the family) and the extent to which this affects a child’s readiness for school entry (defined as their early language, reading, writing, and maths skills that they need in school).\ud \ud Key Findings:\ud •\ud There is a strong association between a child’s social background and their readiness for school as measured by their scores on school entry assessments covering language, reading, maths and writing.\ud •\ud Language development at the age of 2 years predicts children’s performance on entry to primary school. Children’s understanding and use of vocabulary and their use of two or three word sentences at 2 years is very strongly associated with their performance on entering primary school.\ud •\ud The children’s communication environment influences language development. The number of books available to the child, the frequency of visits to the library, parents teaching a range of activities, the number of toys available, and attendance at pre-school, are all important predictors of the child’s expressive vocabulary at 2 years. The amount of television on in the home is also a predictor; as this time increased, so the child’s score at school entry decreased.\ud •\ud The communication environment is a more dominant predictor of early language than social background. In the early stages of language development, it is the particular aspects of a child’s communication environment that are associated with language acquisition rather than the broader socio-economic context of the family.\ud •\ud The child’s language and their communication environment influence the child’s performance at school entry in addition to their social background. Children’s success at school is governed not only by their social background; the child’s communication environment\ud before their second birthday and their language at the age of two years also have a strong influence

The effectiveness of a project day to introduce sixth grade students to science competitions

Background: Science Olympiads and science fairs are effective instruments to foster interested and talented students. However, at most schools competitions are not systematically integrated into the school mission statement so that students are unaware of these opportunities. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of a newly designed competition day in terms of willingness to participate in a science competition and to learn more about students’ reasons for a prospective participation. Programme description: A project day (called ‘competition day’) for students in sixth grade was designed to encourage and motivate more students to participate in science competitions. The theoretical foundations for the design are self-determination theory and an adapted version of Holland’s RIASEC-model. Sample: The sample consisted of 474 German sixth grade students from six secondary schools. Design and methods: A pre-post-follow up-study was conducted with two intervention groups; both groups participated in the competition day and either entered a fictive competition or worked on the same tasks in school lessons. One control group not participating in the competition day was also investigated. Results: The results provide information regarding students’ interests, as well as reasons for and against participating in competitions. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the competition day is shown. Conclusions: The competition day is an effective way to introduce students to competitions and raise their willingness to participate in science contests. Combining the competition day with science competitions showed even better results. This supports the call for continuous fostering strategies

Stochastic dominance equilibria in two-person noncooperative games

Two-person noncooperative games with finitely many pure strategies and ordinal preferences over pure outcomes are considered, in which probability distributions resulting from mixed strategies are evaluated according to t-degree stochastic dominance. A t-best reply is a strategy that induces a t-degree stochastically undominated distribution, and a t-equilibrium is a pair of t-best replies. The paper provides a characterization and existence proofs of t-equilibria in terms of representing utility functions, and shows that for t becoming large-which can be interpreted as the players becoming more risk averse-behavior converges to a specific form of max-min play. More precisely, this means that in the limit each player puts all weight on a strategy that maximizes the worst outcome for the opponent, within the supports of the strategies in the limiting sequenceof t-equilibria.microeconomics ;

Preferences for cancer investigation:a vignette-based study of primary-care attendees

SummaryBackgroundThe UK lags behind many European countries in terms of cancer survival. Initiatives to address this disparity have focused on barriers to presentation, symptom recognition, and referral for specialist investigation. Selection of patients for further investigation has come under particular scrutiny, although preferences for referral thresholds in the UK population have not been studied. We investigated preferences for diagnostic testing for colorectal, lung, and pancreatic cancers in primary-care attendees.MethodsIn a vignette-based study, researchers recruited individuals aged at least 40 years attending 26 general practices in three areas of England between Dec 6, 2011, and Aug 1, 2012. Participants completed up to three of 12 vignettes (four for each of lung, pancreatic, and colorectal cancers), which were randomly assigned. The vignettes outlined a set of symptoms, the risk that these symptoms might indicate cancer (1%, 2%, 5%, or 10%), the relevant testing process, probable treatment, possible alternative diagnoses, and prognosis if cancer were identified. Participants were asked whether they would opt for diagnostic testing on the basis of the information in the vignette.Findings3469 participants completed 6930 vignettes. 3052 individuals (88%) opted for investigation in their first vignette. We recorded no strong evidence that participants were more likely to opt for investigation with a 1% increase in risk of cancer (odds ratio [OR] 1·02, 95% CI 0·99–1·06; p=0·189), although the association between risk and opting for investigation was strong when colorectal cancer was analysed alone (1·08, 1·03–1·13; p=0·0001). In multivariable analysis, age had an effect in all three cancer models: participants aged 60–69 years were significantly more likely to opt for investigation than were those aged 40–59 years, and those aged 70 years or older were less likely. Other variables associated with increased likelihood of opting for investigation were shorter travel times to testing centre (colorectal and lung cancers), a family history of cancer (colorectal and lung cancers), and higher household income (colorectal and pancreatic cancers).InterpretationParticipants in our sample expressed a clear preference for diagnostic testing at all risk levels, and individuals want to be tested at risk levels well below those stipulated by UK guidelines. This willingness should be considered during design of cancer pathways, particularly in primary care. The public engagement with our study should encourage general practitioners to involve patients in referral decision making.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research programme