The Role of Ritual in the Evolution of Social Complexity: Five Predictions and a Drum Roll

Copyright © 2015, The Author(s). This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work, for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ EnquiriesPeer reviewedFinal Published versio

Seshat: The Global History Databank

The vast amount of knowledge about past human societies has not been systematically organized and, therefore, remains inaccessible for empirically testing theories about cultural evolution and historical dynamics. For example, what evolutionary mechanisms were involved in the transition from the small-scale, uncentralized societies, in which humans lived 10,000 years ago, to the large-scale societies with an extensive division of labor, great differentials in wealth and power, and elaborate governance structures of today? Why do modern states sometimes fail to meet the basic needs of their populations? Why do economies decline, or fail to grow? In this article, we describe the structure and uses of a massive databank of historical and archaeological information, Seshat: The Global History Databank. The data that we are currently entering in Seshat will allow us and others to test theories explaining how modern societies evolved from ancestral ones, and why modern societies vary so much in their capacity to satisfy their members’ basic human needsPeer reviewedFinal Published versio

Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: A test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank [preprint V.8]

The causes, consequences, and timing of the rise of moralizing religions in world history have been the focus of intense debate. Progress has been limited by the availability of quantitative data to test competing theories, by divergent ideas regarding both predictor and outcomes variables, and by differences of opinion over methodology. To address all these problems, we utilize Seshat: Global History Databank, a large storehouse of information designed to test theories concerning the evolutionary drivers of social complexity. In addition to the Big Gods hypothesis, which proposes that moralizing religion contributed to the success of increasingly large-scale complex societies, we consider the role of warfare, animal husbandry, and agricultural productivity in the rise of moralizing religions. Using a broad range of new measures of belief in moralizing supernatural punishment, we find strong support for previous research showing that such beliefs did not drive the rise of social complexity. By contrast, our analyses indicate that intergroup warfare, supported by resource availability, played a major role in the evolution of both social complexity and moralizing religions. Thus, the correlation between social complexity and moralizing religion would seem to result from shared evolutionary drivers, rather than from direct causal relationships between these two variables

A Macroscope for Global History. Seshat Global History Databank: a methodological overview

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Digital Humanities Quarterly following peer review. The final published version is available online at: http://www.digitalhumanities.org/dhq/vol/10/4/000272/000272.html This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 LicenseThis article introduces the ‘Seshat: Global History’ project, the methodology it is based upon and its potential as a tool for historians and other humanists. The article describes in detail how the Seshat methodology and platform can be used to tackle big questions that play out over long time scales whilst allowing users to drill down to the detail and place every single data point both in its historic and historiographical context. Seshat thus offers a platform underpinned by a rigorous methodology to actually do 'longue durée' history and the article argues for the need for humanists and social scientists to engage with data driven ‘longue durée' history. The article argues that Seshat offers a much needed infrastructure in which different skills sets and disciplines can come together to analyze the past using long timescales. In addition to highlighting the theoretical and methodological underpinnings, the potential of Seshat is demonstrated by showcasing three case studies. Each of these case studies is centred around a set of long standing questions and historiographical debates and it is argued that the introduction of a Seshat approach has the potential to radically alter our understanding of these questions.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Agricultural productivity in past societies: toward an empirically informed model for testing cultural evolutionary hypotheses

Agricultural productivity, and its variation in space and time, plays a fundamental role in many theories of human social evolution. However, we often lack systematic information about the productivity of past agricultural systems on a scale large enough to test these theories properly. The effect of climate on crop yields has received a great deal of attention resulting in a range of empirical and process-based models, yet the focus has primarily been on current or future conditions. In this paper, we argue for a “bottom-up” approach that estimates potential productivity based on information about the agricultural practices and technologies used in past societies. Of key theoretical interest is using this information to estimate the carrying high quality historical and archaeological information about past societies in order to infer the temporal and geographic patterns of change in agricultural productivity and potential. We discuss information we need to collect about past agricultural techniques and practices, and introduce a new databank initiative that we have developed for collating the best available historical and archaeological evidence. A key benefit of our approach lies in making explicit the steps in the estimation of past productivities and carrying capacities, and in being able to assess the effects of different modelling assumptions. This is undoubtedly an ambitious task, yet promises to provide important insights into fundamental aspects of past societies, enabling us to test more rigorously key hypotheses about human socio-cultural evolution

Masting by Eighteen New Zealand Plant Species: The Role of Temperature as a Synchronizing Cue

Masting, the intermittent production of large flower or seed crops by a population of perennial plants, can enhance the reproductive success of participating plants and drive fluctuations in seed-consumer populations and other ecosystem components over large geographic areas. The spatial and taxonomic extent over which masting is synchronized can determine its success in enhancing individual plant fitness as well as its ecosystem-level effects, and it can indicate the types of proximal cues that enable reproductive synchrony. Here, we demonstrate high intra- and intergeneric synchrony in mast seeding by 17 species of New Zealand plants from four families across \u3e150000 km2. The synchronous species vary ecologically (pollination and dispersal modes) and are geographically widely separated, so intergeneric synchrony seems unlikely to be adaptive per se. Synchronous fruiting by these species was associated with anomalously high temperatures the summer before seedfall, a cue linked with the La Niña phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The lone asynchronous species appears to respond to summer temperatures, but with a 2-yr rather than 1-yr time lag. The importance of temperature anomalies as cues for synchronized masting suggests that the timing and intensity of masting may be sensitive to global climate change, with widespread effects on taxonomically disparate plant and animal communities