Doppler radar observation, CG lightning activity and aerial survey of a multiple downburst in southern Germany on 23 March 2001

Two downburst events from one thunderstorm are investigated, which occurred on 23 March 2001, in Germany's climatologic annual minimum of downburst activity. Observations by two Doppler radars are combined with hail reports, ground lightning detection and an aerial survey conducted after the event. The downburst-producing storm had formed at a synoptic convergence line within the warm sector of a cyclone. It had a remarkably high propagation speed of up to 31 m s−1 corresponding to the midtropospheric flow. Thus, by superposition with the storm motion, even two weak downbursts were sufficient to cause the observed damage of F1 and F2 intensity, respectively. While in its late stages, the storm was dynamically characterized by lower- and midtropospheric divergence; at about the time of the first downburst, a mesocyclonic vortex signature was verified. Aside from midtropospheric dry air entrainment, a thermodynamic explanation for the triggering of the two downbursts by melting of small hail according to recent findings by Atlas et al. [Atlas, D., Ulbrich, C.W., Williams, C.R., 2004. Physical origin of a wet microburst: observations and theory. J. Atmos. Sci. 61, 1186–1196] appears probable. Despite the lack of warnings to the public, the storm's potential for hail and strong straight-line winds was detected by the German weather service radar software CONRAD more than a half hour before the downbursts occurred

Social preferences in childhood and adolescence. A large-scale experiment to estimate primary and secondary motivations

We elicit social preferences of 883 children and teenagers, aged eight to 17 years, in an experiment. Using an econometric mixture model we estimate a subject\u2019s primary and secondary social preference motivations. The secondary motivation indicates the motivation that becomes relevant when the primary motivation implies indifference between various choices. For girls, particularly older ones, maximin-preferences are the most frequent primary motivation, while for boys efficiency concerns are most relevant. Examining secondary motivations reveals that girls are mostly social-welfare-oriented, with strong equity concerns. Boys are also oriented towards social welfare, but are more concerned with efficiency than with equity

Beware of black swans: Taking stock of the description–experience gap in decision under uncertainty

Uncertainty pervades most aspects of life. From selecting a new technology to choosing a career, decision makers rarely know in advance the exact outcomes of their decisions. Whereas the consequences of decisions in standard decision theory are explicitly described (the decision from description (DFD) paradigm), the consequences of decisions in the recent decision from experience (DFE) paradigm are learned from experience. In DFD, decision makers typically overrespond to rare events. That is, rare events have more impact on decisions than their objective probabilities warrant (overweighting). In DFE, decision makers typically exhibit the opposite pattern, underresponding to rare events. That is, rare events may have less impact on decisions than their objective probabilities warrant (underweighting). In extreme cases, rare events are completely neglected, a pattern known as the “Black Swan effect.” This contrast between DFD and DFE is known as a description–experience gap. In this paper, we discuss several tentative interpretations arising from our interdisciplinary examination of this gap. First, while a source of underweighting of rare events in DFE may be sampling error, we observe that a robust description–experience gap remains when these factors are not at play. Second, the residual description–experience gap is not only about experience per se but also about the way in which information concerning the probability distribution over the outcomes is learned in DFE. Econometric error theories may reveal that different assumed error structures in DFD and DFE also contribute to the gap

Limbic Justice—Amygdala Involvement in Immediate Rejection in the Ultimatum Game

Imaging studies have revealed a putative neural account of emotional bias in decision making. However, it has been difficult in previous studies to identify the causal role of the different sub-regions involved in decision making. The Ultimatum Game (UG) is a game to study the punishment of norm-violating behavior. In a previous influential paper on UG it was suggested that frontal insular cortex has a pivotal role in the rejection response. This view has not been reconciled with a vast literature that attributes a crucial role in emotional decision making to a subcortical structure (i.e., amygdala). In this study we propose an anatomy-informed model that may join these views. We also present a design that detects the functional anatomical response to unfair proposals in a subcortical network that mediates rapid reactive responses. We used a functional MRI paradigm to study the early components of decision making and challenged our paradigm with the introduction of a pharmacological intervention to perturb the elicited behavioral and neural response. Benzodiazepine treatment decreased the rejection rate (from 37.6% to 19.0%) concomitantly with a diminished amygdala response to unfair proposals, and this in spite of an unchanged feeling of unfairness and unchanged insular response. In the control group, rejection was directly linked to an increase in amygdala activity. These results allow a functional anatomical detection of the early neural components of rejection associated with the initial reactive emotional response. Thus, the act of immediate rejection seems to be mediated by the limbic system and is not solely driven by cortical processes, as previously suggested. Our results also prompt an ethical discussion as we demonstrated that a commonly used drug influences core functions in the human brain that underlie individual autonomy and economic decision making

Age and sex associate with outcome in older AML and high risk MDS patients treated with 10-day decitabine

Treatment choice according to the individual conditions remains challenging, particularly in older patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and high risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). The impact of performance status, comorbidities, and physical functioning on survival is not well defined for patients treated with hypomethylating agents. Here we describe the impact of performance status (14% ECOG performance status 2), comorbidity (40% HCT-comorbidity index ≥ 2), and physical functioning (41% short physical performance battery  76 years was significantly associated with reduced OS (HR 1.58; p = 0.043) and female sex was associated with superior OS (HR 0.62; p = 0.06). We further compared the genetic profiles of these subgroups. This revealed comparable mutational profiles in patients younger and older than 76 years, but, interestingly, revealed significantly more prevalent mutated ASXL1, STAG2, and U2AF1 in male compared to female patients. In this cohort of older patients treated with decitabine age and sex, but not comorbidities, physical functioning or cytogenetic risk were associated with overall survival

Strong, bold, and kind : Self-control and cooperation in social dilemmas

Financial support from the Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet), from Formas through the program Human Cooperation to Manage Natural Resources (COMMONS), and the Ideenfonds of the University of Munich is gratefully acknowledged.We develop a model that relates self-control to cooperation patterns in social dilemmas, and we test the model in a laboratory public goods experiment. As predicted, we find a robust association between stronger self-control and higher levels of cooperation, and the association is at its strongest when the decision maker’s risk aversion is low and the cooperation levels of others high. We interpret the pattern as evidence for the notion that individuals may experience an impulse to act in self-interest—and that cooperative behavior benefits from self-control. Free-riders differ from other contributor types only in their tendency not to have identified a self-control conflict in the first place.PostprintPeer reviewe

Navigating the evolving landscape of atopic dermatitis: Challenges and future opportunities: The 4th Davos declaration.

The 4th Davos Declaration was developed during the Global Allergy Forum in Davos which aimed to elevate the care of patients with atopic dermatitis (AD) by uniting experts and stakeholders. The forum addressed the high prevalence of AD, with a strategic focus on advancing research, treatment, and management to meet the evolving challenges in the field. This multidisciplinary forum brought together top leaders from research, clinical practice, policy, and patient advocacy to discuss the critical aspects of AD, including neuroimmunology, environmental factors, comorbidities, and breakthroughs in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. The discussions were geared towards fostering a collaborative approach to integrate these advancements into practical, patient-centric care. The forum underlined the mounting burden of AD, attributing it to significant environmental and lifestyle changes. It acknowledged the progress in understanding AD and in developing targeted therapies but recognized a gap in translating these innovations into clinical practice. Emphasis was placed on the need for enhanced awareness, education, and stakeholder engagement to address this gap effectively and to consider environmental and lifestyle factors in a comprehensive disease management strategy. The 4th Davos Declaration marks a significant milestone in the journey to improve care for people with AD. By promoting a holistic approach that combines research, education, and clinical application, the Forum sets a roadmap for stakeholders to collaborate to improve patient outcomes in AD, reflecting a commitment to adapt and respond to the dynamic challenges of AD in a changing world

Extrinsic Rewards and Intrinsic Motives: Standard and Behavioral Approaches to Agency and Labor Markets

Employers structure pay and employment relationships to mitigate agency problems. A large literature in economics documents how the resolution of these problems shapes personnel policies and labor markets. For the most part, the study of agency in employment relationships relies on highly stylized assumptions regarding human motivation, e.g., that employees seek to earn as much money as possible with minimal effort. In this essay, we explore the consequences of introducing behavioral complexity and realism into models of agency within organizations. Specifically, we assess the insights gained by allowing employees to be guided by such motivations as the desire to compare favorably to others, the aspiration to contribute to intrinsically worthwhile goals, and the inclination to reciprocate generosity or exact retribution for perceived wrongs. More provocatively, from the standpoint of standard economics, we also consider the possibility that people are driven, in ways that may be opaque even to themselves, by the desire to earn social esteem or to shape and reinforce identity