Assessing simulation ecosystem processes for climate variability research at Glacier National Park

Glacier National Park served as a test site for ecosystem analyses that involved a suite of integrated models embedded within a geographic information system. The goal of the exercise was to provide managers with maps that could illustrate probable shifts in vegetation, net primary production (NPP), and hydrologic responses associated with two selected climatic scenarios. The climatic scenarios were (a) a recent 12-yr record of weather data, and (b) a reconstituted set that sequentially introduced in repeated 3-yr intervals wetter–cooler, drier–warmer, and typical conditions. To extrapolate the implications of changes in ecosystem processes and resulting growth and distribution of vegetation and snowpack, the model incorporated geographic data. With underlying digital elevation maps, soil depth and texture, extrapolated climate, and current information on vegetation types and satellite-derived estimates of leaf area indices, simulations were extended to envision how the park might look after 120 yr. The predictions of change included underlying processes affecting the availability of water and nitrogen. Considerable field data were acquired to compare with model predictions under current climatic conditions. In general, the integrated landscape models of ecosystem processes had good agreement with measured NPP, snowpack, and streamflow, but the exercise revealed the difficulty and necessity of averaging point measurements across landscapes to achieve comparable results with modeled values. Under the extremely variable climate scenario significant changes in vegetation composition and growth as well as hydrologic responses were predicted across the park. In particular, a general rise in both the upper and lower limits of treeline was predicted. These shifts would probably occur along with a variety of disturbances (fire, insect, and disease outbreaks) as predictions of physiological stress (water, nutrients, light) altered competitive relations and hydrologic responses. The use of integrated landscape models applied in this exercise should provide managers with insights into the underlying processes important in maintaining community structure, and at the same time, locate where changes on the landscape are most likely to occur

Invariant sets for discontinuous parabolic area-preserving torus maps

We analyze a class of piecewise linear parabolic maps on the torus, namely those obtained by considering a linear map with double eigenvalue one and taking modulo one in each component. We show that within this two parameter family of maps, the set of noninvertible maps is open and dense. For cases where the entries in the matrix are rational we show that the maximal invariant set has positive Lebesgue measure and we give bounds on the measure. For several examples we find expressions for the measure of the invariant set but we leave open the question as to whether there are parameters for which this measure is zero.Comment: 19 pages in Latex (with epsfig,amssymb,graphics) with 5 figures in eps; revised version: section 2 rewritten, new example and picture adde

Looking Ahead: Addressing Ethical Challenges in Public Health Practice

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75478/1/j.1748-720X.2007.00188.x.pd

Main-Belt Comet P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS)

We present initial results from observations and numerical analyses aimed at characterizing main-belt comet P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS). Optical monitoring observations were made between October 2012 and February 2013 using the University of Hawaii 2.2 m telescope, the Keck I telescope, the Baade and Clay Magellan telescopes, Faulkes Telescope South, the Perkins Telescope at Lowell Observatory, and the Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) telescope. The object's intrinsic brightness approximately doubles from the time of its discovery in early October until mid-November and then decreases by ~60% between late December and early February, similar to photometric behavior exhibited by several other main-belt comets and unlike that exhibited by disrupted asteroid (596) Scheila. We also used Keck to conduct spectroscopic searches for CN emission as well as absorption at 0.7 microns that could indicate the presence of hydrated minerals, finding an upper limit CN production rate of QCN<1.5x10^23 mol/s, from which we infer a water production rate of QH2O<5x10^25 mol/s, and no evidence of the presence of hydrated minerals. Numerical simulations indicate that P/2012 T1 is largely dynamically stable for >100 Myr and is unlikely to be a recently implanted interloper from the outer solar system, while a search for potential asteroid family associations reveal that it is dynamically linked to the ~155 Myr-old Lixiaohua asteroid family.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Breast-cancer adjuvant therapy with zoledronic acid

Background: Data suggest that the adjuvant use of bisphosphonates reduces rates of recurrence and death in patients with early-stage breast cancer. We conducted a study to determine whether treatment with zoledronic acid, in addition to standard adjuvant therapy, would improve disease outcomes in such patients. Methods: In this open-label phase 3 study, we randomly assigned 3360 patients to receive standard adjuvant systemic therapy either with or without zoledronic acid. The zoledronic acid was administered every 3 to 4 weeks for 6 doses and then every 3 to 6 months to complete 5 years of treatment. The primary end point of the study was disease-free survival. A second interim analysis revealed that a prespecified boundary for lack of benefit had been crossed. Results: At a median follow-up of 59 months, there was no significant between-group difference in the primary end point, with a rate of disease-free survival of 77% in each group (adjusted hazard ratio in the zoledronic acid group, 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85 to 1.13; P=0.79). Disease recurrence or death occurred in 377 patients in the zoledronic acid group and 375 of those in the control group. The numbers of deaths — 243 in the zoledronic acid group and 276 in the control group — were also similar, resulting in rates of overall survival of 85.4% in the zoledronic acid group and 83.1% in the control group (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.01; P=0.07). In the zoledronic acid group, there were 17 confirmed cases of osteonecrosis of the jaw (cumulative incidence, 1.1%; 95% CI, 0.6 to 1.7; P<0.001) and 9 suspected cases; there were no cases in the control group. Rates of other adverse effects were similar in the two study groups. Conclusions: These findings do not support the routine use of zoledronic acid in the adjuvant management of breast cancer. (Funded by Novartis Pharmaceuticals and the National Cancer Research Network; AZURE Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN79831382.

Evaluating predictive pharmacogenetic signatures of adverse events in colorectal cancer patients treated with fluoropyrimidines

The potential clinical utility of genetic markers associated with response to fluoropyrimidine treatment in colorectal cancer patients remains controversial despite extensive study. Our aim was to test the clinical validity of both novel and previously identified markers of adverse events in a broad clinical setting. We have conducted an observational pharmacogenetic study of early adverse events in a cohort study of 254 colorectal cancer patients treated with 5-fluorouracil or capecitabine. Sixteen variants of nine key folate (pharmacodynamic) and drug metabolising (pharmacokinetic) enzymes have been analysed as individual markers and/or signatures of markers. We found a significant association between TYMP S471L (rs11479) and early dose modifications and/or severe adverse events (adjusted OR = 2.02 [1.03; 4.00], p = 0.042, adjusted OR = 2.70 [1.23; 5.92], p = 0.01 respectively). There was also a significant association between these phenotypes and a signature of DPYD mutations (Adjusted OR = 3.96 [1.17; 13.33], p = 0.03, adjusted OR = 6.76 [1.99; 22.96], p = 0.002 respectively). We did not identify any significant associations between the individual candidate pharmacodynamic markers and toxicity. If a predictive test for early adverse events analysed the TYMP and DPYD variants as a signature, the sensitivity would be 45.5 %, with a positive predictive value of just 33.9 % and thus poor clinical validity. Most studies to date have been under-powered to consider multiple pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic variants simultaneously but this and similar individualised data sets could be pooled in meta-analyses to resolve uncertainties about the potential clinical utility of these markers

Breast-cancer Adjuvant Therapy With Zoledronic Acid

BACKGROUND: Data suggest that the adjuvant use of bisphosphonates reduces rates of recurrence and death in patients with early-stage breast cancer. We conducted a study to determine whether treatment with zoledronic acid, in addition to standard adjuvant therapy, would improve disease outcomes in such patients. METHODS: In this open-label phase 3 study, we randomly assigned 3360 patients to receive standard adjuvant systemic therapy either with or without zoledronic acid. The zoledronic acid was administered every 3 to 4 weeks for 6 doses and then every 3 to 6 months to complete 5 years of treatment. The primary end point of the study was disease-free survival. A second interim analysis revealed that a prespecified boundary for lack of benefit had been crossed. RESULTS: At a median follow-up of 59 months, there was no significant between-group difference in the primary end point, with a rate of disease-free survival of 77% in each group (adjusted hazard ratio in the zoledronic acid group, 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85 to 1.13; P = 0.79). Disease recurrence or death occurred in 377 patients in the zoledronic acid group and 375 of those in the control group. The numbers of deaths - 243 in the zoledronic acid group and 276 in the control group - were also similar, resulting in rates of overall survival of 85.4% in the zoledronic acid group and 83.1% in the control group (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.01; P = 0.07). In the zoledronic acid group, there were 17 confirmed cases of osteonecrosis of the jaw (cumulative incidence, 1.1%; 95% CI, 0.6 to 1.7; P < 0.001) and 9 suspected cases; there were no cases in the control group. Rates of other adverse effects were similar in the two study groups. CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not support the routine use of zoledronic acid in the adjuvant management of breast cancer

A TNF-Regulated Recombinatorial Macrophage Immune Receptor Implicated in Granuloma Formation in Tuberculosis

Macrophages play a central role in host defense against mycobacterial infection and anti- TNF therapy is associated with granuloma disorganization and reactivation of tuberculosis in humans. Here, we provide evidence for the presence of a T cell receptor (TCR) αβ based recombinatorial immune receptor in subpopulations of human and mouse monocytes and macrophages. In vitro, we find that the macrophage-TCRαβ induces the release of CCL2 and modulates phagocytosis. TNF blockade suppresses macrophage-TCRαβ expression. Infection of macrophages from healthy individuals with mycobacteria triggers formation of clusters that express restricted TCR Vβ repertoires. In vivo, TCRαβ bearing macrophages abundantly accumulate at the inner host-pathogen contact zone of caseous granulomas from patients with lung tuberculosis. In chimeric mouse models, deletion of the variable macrophage-TCRαβ or TNF is associated with structurally compromised granulomas of pulmonary tuberculosis even in the presence of intact T cells. These results uncover a TNF-regulated recombinatorial immune receptor in monocytes/macrophages and demonstrate its implication in granuloma formation in tuberculosis

Impaired Mitochondrial Microbicidal Responses in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Macrophages

RATIONALE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by impaired clearance of pulmonary bacteria. OBJECTIVES: The effect of COPD on alveolar macrophage (AM) microbicidal responses was investigated. METHODS: Alveolar macrophages (AMs) were obtained from bronchoalveolar lavage from healthy donors or COPD patients and challenged with opsonized serotype 14 Streptococcus pneumoniae. Cells were assessed for apoptosis, bactericidal activity and mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (mROS) production. A transgenic mouse line, in which the CD68 promoter ensures macrophage specific expression of human Mcl-1 (CD68.hMcl-1), was used to model the molecular aspects of COPD. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: COPD AM had elevated levels of Mcl-1, an anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 family member, with selective reduction of delayed intracellular bacterial killing. CD68.hMcl-1 AM phenocopied the microbicidal defect since transgenic mice demonstrated impaired clearance of pulmonary bacteria and increased neutrophilic inflammation. Murine bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMDM) and human monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM) generated mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (mROS) in response to pneumococci, which co-localized with bacteria and phagolysosomes to enhance bacterial killing. The Mcl-1 transgene increased oxygen consumption rates and mROS expression in mock-infected BMDM but reduced caspase-dependent mROS production after pneumococcal challenge. COPD AM also increased basal mROS expression, but failed to increase production after pneumococcal challenge, in keeping with reduced intracellular bacterial killing. The defect in COPD AM intracellular killing was associated with a reduced ratio of mROS /superoxide dismutase 2. CONCLUSIONS: Upregulation of Mcl-1 and chronic adaption to oxidative stress alters mitochondrial metabolism and microbicidal function, reducing the delayed phase of intracellular bacterial clearance in COPD