Level dependent annuities: Defaults of multiple degrees

Motivated by the risk of stopped debt coupon payments from a leveraged company in financial distress, we value a level dependent annuity contract where the annuity rate depends on the value of an underlying asset-process. The range of possible values of the asset is divided into a finite number of regions. The annuity rate is constant within each region, but may differ between the regions. We consider both in finite and finite annuities, with or without bankruptcy risk, i.e., bankruptcy occurs if the asset value process hits an absorbing boundary. Such annuities are common in models of debt with credit risk in financial economics. Suspension of debt service under the US Chapter 11 provisions is one well-known real-world example. We present closed-form formulas for the market value of such multi-level annuities contracts when the market value of the underlying asset is assumed to follow a geometric Brownian motion.Multi-level annuity; credit risk; financial distress

Continuous Monitoring: Look before You Leap

We present a model for pricing credit risk protection for a limited liability non-life insurance company. The protection is typically provided by a guaranty fund. In the case of continuous monitoring, i.e., where the market values of the company's assets and liabilities are continuously observable, and where the market values of assets and liabilities follow continuous processes, the regulators can liquidate the insurance company at the instant the market value of its assets equals the market value of its liabilities, implying that the credit protection is worthless. When jumps are included in the claims process, the protection provided by the guaranty fund has a strictly positive market value. We argue that the ability to continuously monitor the equity value of a company can be a new explanation for why jump processes may be important in models of credit risk.Credit risk for non-life insurers; guarantee fund; continuous monitoring; barrier options

A Model of Deferred Callability in Defaultable Debt

Banks and other financial institutions raise hybrid capital as part of their risk capital. Hybrid capital has no maturity, but, similarily to most corporate debt, includes an embedded issuer's call option. To obtain acceptance as risk capital, the first possible exercise date of the embedded call is contractually deferred by several years, generating a protection period. The existence of this call feature affects the issuer's optimal bankruptcy decision, in addition to the value of debt. We value the call feature as a European option on perpetual defaultable debt. We do this by first modifying the underlying asset process to incorporate a time dependent bankruptcy level before the expiration of the embedded option. We identify a call option on debt as a fixed number of put options using a modified exercise price on a modified asset, which is lognormally distributed, as opposed to the market value of debt. To include the possibility of default before the expiration of the option we apply barrier options results. The formulas are quite general and may be used for valuing both embedded and third-party options. All formulas are developed in the seminal and standard Black-Scholes-Merton model and, thus, standard analytical tools such as 'the greeks', are immediately available.Callable perpetual debt; barrier options

Credit Spreads and Incomplete Information

A new model is presented which produces credit spreads that do not converge to zero for short maturities. Our set-up includes incomplete, i.e., delayed and asymmetric information. When the financial market observes the company's earnings with a delay, the effect on both default policy and credit spreads is negligible, compared to the Leland (1994) model. When information is asymmetrically distributed between the management of the company and the financial market, short credit spreads do not converge to zero. This is result is similar to the Duffie and Lando (2001) model, although our simpler model improves some limitations in their set-up. Short interest rates from our model are used to illustrate effects similar to the dry-up in the interbank market experienced after the summer of 2007.Credit risk; credit spreads; delayed information; asymmetric information

On the Pricing of Performance Sensitive Debt

Performance sensitive debt (PSD) contracts link a loan's interest rate to a measure of the borrower's credit relevant performance, e.g., if the borrower becomes less credit worthy, the interest rate increases according to a predetermined schedule. We derive and empirically test a pricing model for PSD contracts and find that interest increasing contracts are priced reflecting a substantial risk of shocks to borrower credit quality. Borrowers using such contracts are of an overall higher credit quality compared to borrowers using interest decreasing contracts. These contracts are priced as if no risk of shocks to borrower credit quality is present.Performance sensitive debt; cash flow ratios; credit ratings

Guaranteed investment contracts: distributed and undistributed excess return

Annual minimum rate of return guarantees are analyzed together with rules for distribution of positive excess return, i.e. investment returns in excess of the guaranteed minimum return. Together with the level of the annual minimum rate of return guarantee both the customer's and the insurer's fractions of the positive excess return are determined so that the market value of the insurer's capital inflow (determined by the fraction of the positive excess return) equals the market value of the insurer's capital outflow (determined by the minimum rate of return guarantee) at the inception of the contract. The analysis is undertaken both with and without a surplus distribution mechanism. The surplus distribution mechanism works through a bonus account that serves as a buffer in the following sense: in ("bad") years when the investment returns are lower than the minimum rate of return guarantee, funds are transferred from the bonus account to the customer's account. In ("good") years when the investment returns are above the minimum rate of return guarantee, a part of the positive excess return is credited to the bonus account. In addition to characterizations of fair combinations of the level of the annual minimum rate of return guarantee and the sharing rules of the positive excess return, our analysis indicates that the presence of a surplus distribution mechanism allows the insurer to offer a much wider menu of contracts to the customer than without a surplus distribution mechanism

A note on a barrier exchange option : the world’s simplest option formula?

The paper analyzes a barrier exchange option that is knocked out the first time the two underlying assets have identical market values. Under rather general conditions regarding the price processes for the underlying assets, probably the world’s simplest option pricing formula is derived. It applies both to options of American and European type

Continuous monitoring : look before you leap

We present a model for pricing credit risk protection for a limited liability non-life insurance company. The protection is typically provided by a guaranty fund. In the case of continuous monitoring, i.e., where the market values of the company's assets and liabilities are continuously observable, and where the market values of assets and liabilities follow continuous processes, the regulators can liquidate the insurance company at the instant the market value of its assets equals the market value of its liabilities, implying that the credit protection is worthless. When jumps are included in the claims process, the protection provided by the guaranty fund has a strictly positive market value. We argue that the ability to continuously monitor the equity value of a company can be a new explanation for why jump processes may be important in models of credit risk

Callable risky perpetual debt : options, pricing and bankruptcy implications

Issuances of perpetual risky debt are often motivated by capital requirements for financial institutions. However, observed market practice indicates that actual maturity equals first possible call date. We analyze callable risky perpetual debt including an initial protection period before the debt may be called. To this end we develop European barrier option pricing formulas in a Black and Cox (1976) environment. The total market value of debt including the call option is expressed as a portfolio of barrier options and perpetual debt with a time dependent barrier. We analyze how the issuer’s optimal bankruptcy decision is affected by the existence of the call option using closed-form approximations. In accordance with intuition, our model quantifies the increased coupon and the decreased bankruptcy level caused by the embedded option. We show that the option will be exercised even at fairly low asset levels at the time of expiry