The Early Psychosis Screener (EPS): Quantitative validation against the SIPS using machine learning

Machine learning techniques were used to identify highly informative early psychosis self-report items and to validate an early psychosis screener (EPS) against the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes (SIPS). The Prodromal Questionnaire–Brief Version (PQ-B) and 148 additional items were administered to 229 individuals being screened with the SIPS at 7 North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study sites and at Columbia University. Fifty individuals were found to have SIPS scores of 0, 1, or 2, making them clinically low risk (CLR) controls; 144 were classified as clinically high risk (CHR) (SIPS 3–5) and 35 were found to have first episode psychosis (FEP) (SIPS 6). Spectral clustering analysis, performed on 124 of the items, yielded two cohesive item groups, the first mostly related to psychosis and mania, the second mostly related to depression, anxiety, and social and general work/school functioning. Items within each group were sorted according to their usefulness in distinguishing between CLR and CHR individuals using the Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance procedure. A receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) analysis indicated that maximal differentiation of CLR and CHR participants was achieved with a 26-item solution (AUC = 0.899 ± 0.001). The EPS-26 outperformed the PQ-B (AUC = 0.834 ± 0.001). For screening purposes, the self-report EPS-26 appeared to differentiate individuals who are either CLR or CHR approximately as well as the clinician-administered SIPS. The EPS-26 may prove useful as a self-report screener and may lead to a decrease in the duration of untreated psychosis. A validation of the EPS-26 against actual conversion is underway

The Early Psychosis Screener (EPS): Item development and qualitative validation

A panel of experts assembled and analyzed a comprehensive item bank from which a highly sensitive and specific early psychosis screener could be developed. Twenty well-established assessments relating to the prodromal stage, early psychosis, and psychosis were identified. Using DSM-5 criteria, we identified the core concepts represented by each of the items in each of the assessments. These granular core concepts were converted into a uniform set of 490 self-report items using a Likert scale and a ‘past 30 days’ time frame. Partial redundancy was allowed to assure adequate concept coverage. A panel of experts and TeleSage staff rated these items and eliminated 189 items, resulting in 301 items. The items were subjected to five rounds of cognitive interviewing with 16 individuals at clinically high risk for psychosis and 26 community mental health center patients. After each round, the expert panel iteratively reviewed, rated, revised, added, or deleted items to maximize clarity and centrality to the concept. As a result of the interviews, 36 items were revised, 52 items were added, and 205 items were deleted. By the last round of cognitive interviewing, all of the items were clearly understood by all participants. In future work, responses to the final set of 148 items and machine learning techniques will be used to quantitatively identify the subset of items that will best predict clinical high-risk status and conversion

The Early Psychosis Screener for Internet (EPSI)-SR: Predicting 12 month psychotic conversion using machine learning

Introduction: A faster and more accurate self-report screener for early psychosis is needed to promote early identification and intervention. Methods: Self-report Likert-scale survey items were administered to individuals being screened with the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes (SIPS) and followed at eight early psychosis clinics. An a priori analytic plan included Spectral Clustering Analysis to reduce the item pool, followed by development of Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers. Results: The cross-validated positive predictive value (PPV) of the EPSI at the default cut-off (76.5%) exceeded that of the clinician-administered SIPS (68.5%) at separating individuals who would not convert to psychosis within 12 months from those who either would convert within 12 months or who had already experienced a first episode psychosis (FEP). When used in tandem with the SIPS on clinical high risk participants, the EPSI increased the combined PPV to 86.6%. The SVM classified as FEP/converters only 1% of individuals in non-clinical and 4% of clinical low risk populations. Sensitivity of the EPSI, however, was 51% at the default cut-off. Discussion: The EPSI identifies, comparably to the SIPS but in less time and with fewer resources, individuals who are either at very high risk to develop a psychotic disorder within 12 months or who are already psychotic. At its default cut-off, EPSI misses 49% of current or future psychotic cases. The cut-off can, however, be adjusted based on purpose. The EPSI is the first validated assessment to predict 12-month psychotic conversion. An online screening system, www.eps.telesage.org, is under development

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO-Virgo Run O3b

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC-2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: A generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate. © 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society

Narrowband Searches for Continuous and Long-duration Transient Gravitational Waves from Known Pulsars in the LIGO-Virgo Third Observing Run

Isolated neutron stars that are asymmetric with respect to their spin axis are possible sources of detectable continuous gravitational waves. This paper presents a fully coherent search for such signals from eighteen pulsars in data from LIGO and Virgo's third observing run (O3). For known pulsars, efficient and sensitive matched-filter searches can be carried out if one assumes the gravitational radiation is phase-locked to the electromagnetic emission. In the search presented here, we relax this assumption and allow both the frequency and the time derivative of the frequency of the gravitational waves to vary in a small range around those inferred from electromagnetic observations. We find no evidence for continuous gravitational waves, and set upper limits on the strain amplitude for each target. These limits are more constraining for seven of the targets than the spin-down limit defined by ascribing all rotational energy loss to gravitational radiation. In an additional search, we look in O3 data for long-duration (hours-months) transient gravitational waves in the aftermath of pulsar glitches for six targets with a total of nine glitches. We report two marginal outliers from this search, but find no clear evidence for such emission either. The resulting duration-dependent strain upper limits do not surpass indirect energy constraints for any of these targets. © 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society

Open data from the third observing run of LIGO, Virgo, KAGRA, and GEO

The global network of gravitational-wave observatories now includes five detectors, namely LIGO Hanford, LIGO Livingston, Virgo, KAGRA, and GEO 600. These detectors collected data during their third observing run, O3, composed of three phases: O3a starting in 2019 April and lasting six months, O3b starting in 2019 November and lasting five months, and O3GK starting in 2020 April and lasting two weeks. In this paper we describe these data and various other science products that can be freely accessed through the Gravitational Wave Open Science Center at https://gwosc.org. The main data set, consisting of the gravitational-wave strain time series that contains the astrophysical signals, is released together with supporting data useful for their analysis and documentation, tutorials, as well as analysis software packages

A joint Fermi-GBM and Swift-BAT analysis of gravitational-wave candidates from the third gravitational-wave observing run

We present Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (Fermi-GBM) and Swift Burst Alert Telescope (Swift-BAT) searches for gamma-ray/X-ray counterparts to gravitational-wave (GW) candidate events identified during the third observing run of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. Using Fermi-GBM onboard triggers and subthreshold gamma-ray burst (GRB) candidates found in the Fermi-GBM ground analyses, the Targeted Search and the Untargeted Search, we investigate whether there are any coincident GRBs associated with the GWs. We also search the Swift-BAT rate data around the GW times to determine whether a GRB counterpart is present. No counterparts are found. Using both the Fermi-GBM Targeted Search and the Swift-BAT search, we calculate flux upper limits and present joint upper limits on the gamma-ray luminosity of each GW. Given these limits, we constrain theoretical models for the emission of gamma rays from binary black hole mergers

Search for gravitational-wave transients associated with magnetar bursts in advanced LIGO and advanced Virgo data from the third observing run

Gravitational waves are expected to be produced from neutron star oscillations associated with magnetar giant f lares and short bursts. We present the results of a search for short-duration (milliseconds to seconds) and longduration (∼100 s) transient gravitational waves from 13 magnetar short bursts observed during Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo, and KAGRA’s third observation run. These 13 bursts come from two magnetars, SGR1935 +2154 and SwiftJ1818.0−1607. We also include three other electromagnetic burst events detected by FermiGBM which were identified as likely coming from one or more magnetars, but they have no association with a known magnetar. No magnetar giant flares were detected during the analysis period. We find no evidence of gravitational waves associated with any of these 16 bursts. We place upper limits on the rms of the integrated incident gravitational-wave strain that reach 3.6 × 10−²³ Hz at 100 Hz for the short-duration search and 1.1 ×10−²² Hz at 450 Hz for the long-duration search. For a ringdown signal at 1590 Hz targeted by the short-duration search the limit is set to 2.3 × 10−²² Hz. Using the estimated distance to each magnetar, we derive upper limits upper limits on the emitted gravitational-wave energy of 1.5 × 1044 erg (1.0 × 1044 erg) for SGR 1935+2154 and 9.4 × 10^43 erg (1.3 × 1044 erg) for Swift J1818.0−1607, for the short-duration (long-duration) search. Assuming isotropic emission of electromagnetic radiation of the burst fluences, we constrain the ratio of gravitational-wave energy to electromagnetic energy for bursts from SGR 1935+2154 with the available fluence information. The lowest of these ratios is 4.5 × 103

Constraints on the cosmic expansion history from GWTC–3

We use 47 gravitational wave sources from the Third LIGO–Virgo–Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC–3) to estimate the Hubble parameter H(z), including its current value, the Hubble constant H0. Each gravitational wave (GW) signal provides the luminosity distance to the source, and we estimate the corresponding redshift using two methods: the redshifted masses and a galaxy catalog. Using the binary black hole (BBH) redshifted masses, we simultaneously infer the source mass distribution and H(z). The source mass distribution displays a peak around 34 M⊙, followed by a drop-off. Assuming this mass scale does not evolve with the redshift results in a H(z) measurement, yielding ${H}_{0}={68}_{-8}^{+12}\,\mathrm{km}\ \,\ {{\rm{s}}}^{-1}\,{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-1}$ (68% credible interval) when combined with the H0 measurement from GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart. This represents an improvement of 17% with respect to the H0 estimate from GWTC–1. The second method associates each GW event with its probable host galaxy in the catalog GLADE+, statistically marginalizing over the redshifts of each event's potential hosts. Assuming a fixed BBH population, we estimate a value of ${H}_{0}={68}_{-6}^{+8}\,\mathrm{km}\ \,\ {{\rm{s}}}^{-1}\,{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-1}$ with the galaxy catalog method, an improvement of 42% with respect to our GWTC–1 result and 20% with respect to recent H0 studies using GWTC–2 events. However, we show that this result is strongly impacted by assumptions about the BBH source mass distribution; the only event which is not strongly impacted by such assumptions (and is thus informative about H0) is the well-localized event GW190814

Hematological and gene co-expression network analyses of high-risk beef cattle defines immunological mechanisms and biological complexes involved in bovine respiratory disease and weight gain

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD), the leading disease complex in beef cattle production systems, remains highly elusive regarding diagnostics and disease prediction. Previous research has employed cellular and molecular techniques to describe hematological and gene expression variation that coincides with BRD development. Here, we utilized weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) to leverage total gene expression patterns from cattle at arrival and generate hematological and clinical trait associations to describe mechanisms that may predict BRD development. Gene expression counts of previously published RNA-Seq data from 23 cattle (2017; n = 11 Healthy, n = 12 BRD) were used to construct gene co-expression modules and correlation patterns with complete blood count (CBC) and clinical datasets. Modules were further evaluated for cross-populational preservation of expression with RNA-Seq data from 24 cattle in an independent population (2019; n = 12 Healthy, n = 12 BRD). Genes within well-preserved modules were subject to functional enrichment analysis for significant Gene Ontology terms and pathways. Genes which possessed high module membership and association with BRD development, regardless of module preservation ("hub genes"), were utilized for protein-protein physical interaction network and clustering analyses. Five well-preserved modules of co-expressed genes were identified. One module ("steelblue"), involved in alpha-beta T-cell complexes and Th2-type immunity, possessed significant correlation with increased erythrocytes, platelets, and BRD development. One module ("purple"), involved in mitochondrial metabolism and rRNA maturation, possessed significant correlation with increased eosinophils, fecal egg count per gram, and weight gain over time. Fifty-two interacting hub genes, stratified into 11 clusters, may possess transient function involved in BRD development not previously described in literature. This study identifies co-expressed genes and coordinated mechanisms associated with BRD, which necessitates further investigation in BRD-prediction research. © 2022 Scott et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Open access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]