Assessment of the 2018 main cropping season in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

This report provides an early assessment of the ongoing 2018 main crop season in DPRK by analysing the meteorological and vegetation conditions until mid-September 2018. The main findings are: • Main season crop production prospects for 2018 has been negatively affected by the combined effect of rainfall deficits at the beginning of August, high temperatures from mid-July to mid-August and floods at the end of August. • The heatwave between mid-July and mid-August, with temperature anomalies above 5 degrees almost in the whole country, affected mainly rain-fed maize and potato crops. • A reduction in maize production is expected because of the combined effects of yield reduction due to hot and dry weather and increased post-harvest losses due humidity brought by late abundant rains. • Potato yield in the northern provinces is expected to decline by 20%. • Excessive rains at the end of August led to localised flooding in the southern parts affecting irrigated paddy fields.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

Children's dietary diversity and related factors in Rwanda and Burundi: A multilevel analysis using 2010 Demographic and Health Surveys

BACKGROUND: One of the reported causes of high malnutrition rates in Burundi and Rwanda is children's inadequate dietary habits. The diet of children may be affected by individual characteristics and by the characteristics of the households and the communities in which they live. We used the minimum dietary diversity of children (MDD-C) indicator as a proxy of diet quality aiming at: 1) assess how much of the observed variation in MDD-C was attributed to community clustering, and 2) to identify the MDD-C associated factors. METHODS: Data was obtained from the 2010 Demographic and Health Surveys of Burundi and Rwanda, from which only children 6 to 23 months from rural areas were analysed. The MDD-C was calculated according to the 2007 WHO/UNICEF guidelines. We computed the intra-class coefficient to assess the percentage of variation attributed to the clustering effect of living in the same community. And then we applied two-level logit regressions to investigate the association between MDD-C and potential risk factors following the hierarchical survey structure of DHS. RESULTS: The MDD-C was 23% in rural Rwanda and 16% in rural Burundi, and a 29% of its variation in Rwanda and 17% in Burundi was attributable to community clustering. Increasing age and living standards were associated with higher MDD-C in both countries, and only in Burundi also increasing level of education of the mother's partner. In Rwanda alone, the increasing ages of the head of the household and of the mother at first birth were also positively associated with it. Despite the identification of an important proportion of the MDD-C variation due to clustering, we couldn't identify any community variable significantly associated with it. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend further research using hierarchical models, and to integrate dietary diversity in holistic interventions which take into account both the household's and the community's characteristics the children live in.The authors received no specific funding for this work.S

Global analysis of food and nutrition security situation in food crisis hotspots

This report provides a global overview of food insecurity due to different crises and natural disasters to support programming of the Pro-resilience Actions (PRO-ACT) funding mechanism, a component of the Global Public Goods and Challenges (GPGC) thematic programme of the European Union. The analysis covers the period January 2015-January 2016 that has been marked by food crises in several countries because of extreme weather events due the El Niño phenomenon but also because of conflicts and political crises. In a number of countries, in particular in West Africa, food insecurity remains a major concern because of chronic vulnerability despite good crop production in 2015.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

Assessing the use of acute malnutrition indicators for nutrition surveillance: Results from 682 283 child observations in 27 low- and middle-income countries

Surveillance with anthropometric indicators is crucial to detect any deterioration in the nutritional status of a population as it provides information on trends to monitor progress and effectiveness of interventions and facilitates geographical and contextual situation analysis which informs prioritization of actions and allocation of resources. For this purposes it is essential that the indicators used to monitor the situation yield comparable results. However, the two indicators most widely used to identify children´s acute malnutrition (AM), the weight-for-height/length Z-score (WHZ) and the absolute value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) provide discrepant results when applied to the same populations. The aim of this report is to shed light on the relationships between WHZ and MUAC in identifying possible population level patterns of acute malnutrition, and explore how they relate to individual characteristics such as sex, age or stunting status, in order to guide their interpretation and use to inform nutrition interventions. The MUAC for age (MUACZ) is also assessed to explore further possibilities of using this indicator as part of population based surveillance taking into account the age bias that exists when assessing children for acute malnutrition using absolute MUAC measurement only. The JRC-UNICEF collaboration was set up to collate, harmonise and analyse a large dataset composed of surveys from 19 West and 7 East African countries and Yemen. In total, 135 national and subnational representative surveys containing 682,283 child observations from 27countries (2011-2018) were collated. We use descriptive statistics and regression analyses to analyse these data. The findings show that WHZ and MUAC measurements identify different manifestations of acute malnutrition and are thus complementary and additive, rather than alternative or exchangeable. Overall and in most of the countries the global acute malnutrition prevalence was lower when using MUAC as compared to WHZ or MUACZ. However, results at country and regional level differed from findings described in other multi-country studies, suggesting that the relationship between the indicators doesn´t follow a geographical pattern (no regional or country pattern can be identified), but rather depend on the sample characteristics of the population surveyed. Importantly, sex, age, and stunting status were confirmed to impact how children are diagnosed as acutely malnourished by the different indicators. Whereas absolute MUAC consistently identifies more acutely malnourished children in younger age groups (below 2 years), MUAC for age (MUACZ) identifies more acute malnutrition in older children. And in relation to the sex of the child, depending on the indicator, the prevalence of acute malnutrition is higher among girls (MUAC) or among boys (WHZ and MUACZ). Conversely, acute malnutrition was consistently higher among stunted children (compared to non-stunted children) across the three indicators, although MUACZ invariably identified the highest number of AM children within the stunted children, as compared to MUAC and WHZ. Finally, these discrepancies can result in discordant situation analysis if the same severity thresholds are applied to all AM population estimates, independently of the indicator used. At the time being, the only global thresholds prescribed to categorize the severity of AM within populations are the ones defined by WHO for wasting based on WHZ. In conclusion, the recommendation is to always specify the indicator used to diagnose acute malnutrition when reporting nutrition outcomes, as well as to disaggregate results by sex, age (below and at/above 24 months) and stunting status for better interpretation. The use of MUAC for age showed potential to improve estimation of acute malnutrition for surveillance but requires additional research. Also, further investigations are needed to define global thresholds to describe severity of acute malnutrition at population level when using the different indicators. Alternatively, to reconsider the age targeting of surveys to 0-23 months, in line with 1000 days programming, and to develop population threholds specific of this age group. Meanwhile, the WHO population based thresholds to interpret the severity of global acute malnutrition for children under five years should be used exclusively for WHZ, and for the acute malnutrition derived from absolute MUAC we recommend to use alternative methods such as the one developed by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification initiative.S

Summary of climate variability and extremes and their main impacts on agricultural production in 2018

This yearly summary reviews the main climate extremes described by the WMO state of the climate preliminary report for 2018 that had an impact on agricultural production according to JRC’s agricultural early warning system ASAP (Anomaly hotspots of Agricultural Production). Such a summary can be used as a starting point for more detailed analysis of agricultural production problems and their impact on food security as it is done by several multi-agency reports such as the Global Report on Food Crises and the Food Security and Nutrition State in the World. In 2018 major droughts affected crop and rangeland productivity in Northern and Central Europe as well as in Australia. Southern Africa experienced early season dry spells reducing maize crop production, while East, West and Central Africa experienced localized flooding during an otherwise favourable agricultural season. In Asia, Afghanistan was the main affected country with food production seriously limited by drought, while exceptional Monsoon rains and Typhoons were a problem in the Philippines, Myanmar and Laos. The final part of the report includes an oveview of climate extremes affecting crop seasons ongoing in early 2019 as well as a short summary of seasonal forecasts for the first 3 months of 2019.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

Summary of climate variability and extremes and their main impacts on agricultural production in 2019

This yearly summary reviews the main climate extremes described by the WMO state of the climate preliminary report for 2019 that had an impact on agricultural production according to JRC’s agricultural early warning system ASAP (Anomaly hotspots of Agricultural Production). Such a summary can be used as a starting point for more detailed analysis of agricultural production problems and their impact on food security as it is done for example by the multi-agency Global Report on Food Crises and the Food Security and Nutrition State in the World. The year 2019 was warmer than 2018 (second warmest on record) and saw major heat waves in several parts of the world. Droughts affected crop and rangeland productivity mainly in Europe, Southern and Eastern Africa, South East Asia and in Australia. Tropical storms and cyclones caused fatalities and major damage to infrastructure and agriculture in the Bahamas and along East Africas coast. High intensity rainfall lead to floods in all continents. The final part of the report includes an oveview of climate extremes affecting crop seasons ongoing in early 2020 as well as a short summary of seasonal forecasts until April 2020.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

Genetic landscape of 6089 inherited retinal dystrophies affected cases in Spain and their therapeutic and extended epidemiological implications

Inherited retinal diseases (IRDs), defined by dysfunction or progressive loss of photoreceptors, are disorders characterized by elevated heterogeneity, both at the clinical and genetic levels. Our main goal was to address the genetic landscape of IRD in the largest cohort of Spanish patients reported to date. A retrospective hospital-based cross-sectional study was carried out on 6089 IRD affected individuals (from 4403 unrelated families), referred for genetic testing from all the Spanish autonomous communities. Clinical, demographic and familiar data were collected from each patient, including family pedigree, age of appearance of visual symptoms, presence of any systemic findings and geographical origin. Genetic studies were performed to the 3951 families with available DNA using different molecular techniques. Overall, 53.2% (2100/3951) of the studied families were genetically characterized, and 1549 different likely causative variants in 142 genes were identified. The most common phenotype encountered is retinitis pigmentosa (RP) (55.6% of families, 2447/4403). The most recurrently mutated genes were PRPH2, ABCA4 and RS1 in autosomal dominant (AD), autosomal recessive (AR) and X-linked (XL) NON-RP cases, respectively; RHO, USH2A and RPGR in AD, AR and XL for non-syndromic RP; and USH2A and MYO7A in syndromic IRD. Pathogenic variants c.3386G > T (p.Arg1129Leu) in ABCA4 and c.2276G > T (p.Cys759Phe) in USH2A were the most frequent variants identified. Our study provides the general landscape for IRD in Spain, reporting the largest cohort ever presented. Our results have important implications for genetic diagnosis, counselling and new therapeutic strategies to both the Spanish population and other related populations.This work was supported by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) of the Spanish Ministry of Health (FIS; PI16/00425 and PI19/00321), Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Raras (CIBERER, 06/07/0036), IIS-FJD BioBank (PT13/0010/0012), Comunidad de Madrid (CAM, RAREGenomics Project, B2017/BMD-3721), European Regional Development Fund (FEDER), the Organización Nacional de Ciegos Españoles (ONCE), Fundación Ramón Areces, Fundación Conchita Rábago and the University Chair UAM-IIS-FJD of Genomic Medicine. Irene Perea-Romero is supported by a PhD fellowship from the predoctoral Program from ISCIII (FI17/00192). Ionut F. Iancu is supported by a grant from the Comunidad de Madrid (CAM, PEJ-2017-AI/BMD7256). Marta del Pozo-Valero is supported by a PhD grant from the Fundación Conchita Rábago. Berta Almoguera is supported by a Juan Rodes program from ISCIII (JR17/00020). Pablo Minguez is supported by a Miguel Servet program from ISCIII (CP16/00116). Marta Corton is supported by a Miguel Servet program from ISCIII (CPII17/00006). The funders played no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, manuscript preparation and/or publication decisions

Assessment of the 2019 main cropping season in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

This report provides an early assessment of the 2019 main crop season by analysing the meteorological (Temperature and Rainfall) and vegetation conditions until end-September 2019. Overall, the start of the season was delayed and poor due to long dry spells until June that negatively affected the establishment of early crops planted in spring as well as main season rainfed crops (Annex 1). Despite some rain improvements in June in the north of the rice bowl area, persistent dry spells in July and August negatively affected crop conditions in southwestern regions (i.e. Hwanghae Bukto, Hwanghae Namdo and Pyongyang-si). Heavy rain in September brought by Typhoon Lingling reduced water deficits and resulted in improvement of vegetation conditions but did not significantly improve crop prospects due to their late occurrence during the growing season. According to the weather and Earth Observation data analysed, irregular rainfall distribution coupled with irrigation water shortages, negatively affected the 2019 crop production, placing the country in a critical food security situation, if we also consider the poor harvest of 2018. Nonetheless, a more detailed analysis based on field observation would be necessary to confirm this diagnosis.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

Integrating multiple land cover maps through a multi-criteria analysis to improve agricultural monitoring in Africa

Monitoring agricultural land cover is highly relevant for global early warning systems such as ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production), because it represents the basis for detecting production deficits in food security assessment. Given the significant inconsistencies among existing land cover datasets, there is a need to obtain a more accurate representation of the spatial distribution and extent of agricultural area in Africa. In this research, we explore a fusion approach that combines the strength of individual datasets and minimises their limitations. Specifically, a semi-automatic method is developed, relying on multi-criteria analysis (MCA) complemented with manual fine-tuning using the best-rated datasets, to generate two hybrid and static agricultural masks – one for cropland and another for grassland. Following a comprehensive selection of land cover maps, each dataset is evaluated at country level according to five criteria: timeliness, spatial resolution, comparison with FAO statistics, accuracy assessment and expert evaluation. A sensitivity analysis is performed, based on an evaluation of the impact of weight settings on the resulting land cover. The proposed methodology is capable of improving agricultural characterisation in Africa. As a result, two static masks at 250 m spatial resolution for the nominal year 2016 are provided.JRC.D.5-Food Securit