COVID-19 outbreak in healthcare workers in hospitals in Trieste, North-east Italy

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Economics of Chronic Diseases Protocol: Cost-effectiveness modelling and the future burden of non-communicable disease in Europe

Background: The majority of chronic disease is caused by risk factors which are mostly preventable. Effective interventions to reduce these risks are known and proven to be applicable to a variety of settings. Chronic disease is generally developed long before the fatal outcome, meaning that a lot of people spend a number of years in poor health. Effective prevention measures can prolong lives of individuals and significantly improve their quality of life. However, the methods to measure cost-effectiveness are a subject to much debate. The Economics of Chronic Diseases project aims to establish the best possible methods of measuring cost-effectiveness as well as develop micro-simulation models apt at projecting future burden of chronic diseases, their costs and potential savings after implementation of cost-effective interventions. Method: This research project will involve eight European countries: Bulgaria, Finland, Greece, Lithuania, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and the United Kingdom (UK). A literature review will be conducted to identify scientific articles which critically review the methods of cost-effectiveness. Contact will be made health economists to inform and enrich this review. This evidence will be used as a springboard for discussion at a meeting with key European stakeholders and experts with the aim of reaching a consensus on recommendations for cost-effectiveness methodology. Epidemiological data for coronary heart disease, chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease will be collected along with data on time trends in three major risk factors related to these diseases, specifically tobacco consumption, blood pressure and body mass index. Economic and epidemiological micro-simulation models will be developed to asses the future distributions of risks, disease outcomes, healthcare costs and the cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce the burden of chronic diseases in Europe. Discussion: This work will help to establish the best methods of measuring cost-effectiveness of health interventions as well as test a variety of scenarios to reduce the risk factors associated with selected chronic diseases. The modelling projections could be used to inform decisions and policies that will implement the best course of action to curb the rising incidence of chronic diseases.The EConDA project is supported by the European Commission Health Programme and the Executive Agency for Health and Consumers, grant agreement n0 20121213.www.econdaproject.e

Geokinematics of Central Europe: New insights from the CERGOP-2/Environment Project

The Central European Geodynamics Project CERGOP/2, funded by the European Union from 2003to 2006 under the 5th Framework Programme, benefited from repeated measurements of thecoordinates of epoch and permanent GPS stations of the Central European GPS Reference Network(CEGRN), starting in 1994. Here we report on the results of the systematic processing of availabledata up to 2005. The analysis has yielded velocities for some 60 sites, covering a variety of CentralEuropean tectonic provinces, from the Adria indenter to the Tauern window, the Dinarides, thePannonian Basin, the Vrancea seismic zone and the Carpathian Mountains. The estimated velocitiesdefine kinematical patterns which outline, with varying spatial resolution depending on the stationdensity and history, the present day surface kinematics in Central Europe. Horizontal velocities areanalyzed after removal from the ITRF2000 estimated velocities of a rigid rotation accounting forthe mean motion of Europe: a ~2.3 mm/yr north-south oriented convergence rate between Adria andthe Southern Alps that can be considered to be the present day velocity of the Adria indenterrelative to the European foreland. An eastward extrusion zone initiates at the Tauern Window. Thelateral eastward flow towards the Pannonian Basin exhibits a gentle gradient from 1-1.5 mm/yrimmediately east of the Tauern Window to zero in the Pannonian Basin. This kinematic continuityimplies that the Pannonian plate fragment recently suggested by seismic data does not require aspecific Eulerian pole. On the southeastern boundary of the Adria microplate, we report a velocitydrop from 4-4.5 mm/yr motion near Matera to ~1 mm/yr north of the Dinarides, in the southwesternpart of the Pannonian Basin. A positive velocity gradient as one moves south from West Ukraineacross Rumania and Bulgaria is estimated to be 2 mm/yr on a scale of 600-800 km, as if the crustwere dragged by the counterclockwise rotation along the North Anatolian Fault Zone. This regimeapparently does not interfere with the Vrancea seismic zone: earthquakes there are sufficiently deep(> 100 km) that the brittle deformation at depth can be considered as decoupled from the creep atthe surface. We conclude that models of the Quaternary tectonics of Central and Eastern Europeshould not neglect the long wavelength, nearly aseismic deformation affecting the upper crust in theRomanian and Bulgarian regions

The Italian multiple sclerosis register

The past decade has seen extraordinary increase in worldwide availability of and access to several large multiple sclerosis (MS) databases and registries. MS registries represent powerful tools to provide meaningful information on the burden, natural history, and long-term safety and effectiveness of treatments. Moreover, patients, physicians, industry, and policy makers have an active interest in real-world observational studies based on register data, as they have the potential to answer the questions that are most relevant to daily treatment decision-making. In 2014, the Italian MS Foundation, in collaboration with the Italian MS clinical centers, promoted and funded the creation of the Italian MS Register, a project in continuity with the existing Italian MS Database Network set up from 2001. Main objective of the Italian MS Register is to create an organized multicenter structure to collect data of all MS patients for better defining the disease epidemiology, improving quality of care, and promoting research projects in high-priority areas. The aim of this article is to present the current framework and network of the Italian MS register, including the methodology used to improve the quality of data collection and to facilitate the exchange of data and the collaboration among national and international groups

The Italian multiple sclerosis register

The past decade has seen extraordinary increase in worldwide availability of and access to several large multiple sclerosis (MS) databases and registries. MS registries represent powerful tools to provide meaningful information on the burden, natural history, and long-term safety and effectiveness of treatments. Moreover, patients, physicians, industry, and policy makers have an active interest in real-world observational studies based on register data, as they have the potential to answer the questions that are most relevant to daily treatment decision-making. In 2014, the Italian MS Foundation, in collaboration with the Italian MS clinical centers, promoted and funded the creation of the Italian MS Register, a project in continuity with the existing Italian MS Database Network set up from 2001. Main objective of the Italian MS Register is to create an organized multicenter structure to collect data of all MS patients for better defining the disease epidemiology, improving quality of care, and promoting research projects in high-priority areas. The aim of this article is to present the current framework and network of the Italian MS register, including the methodology used to improve the quality of data collection and to facilitate the exchange of data and the collaboration among national and international groups

Off–label long acting injectable antipsychotics in real–world clinical practice: a cross-sectional analysis of prescriptive patterns from the STAR Network DEPOT study

Introduction: Information on the off–label use of Long–Acting Injectable (LAI) antipsychotics in the real world is lacking. In this study, we aimed to identify the sociodemographic and clinical features of patients treated with on– vs off–label LAIs and predictors of off–label First– or Second–Generation Antipsychotic (FGA vs. SGA) LAI choice in everyday clinical practice. Method: In a naturalistic national cohort of 449 patients who initiated LAI treatment in the STAR Network Depot Study, two groups were identified based on off– or on–label prescriptions. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to test several clinically relevant variables and identify those associated with the choice of FGA vs SGA prescription in the off–label group. Results: SGA LAIs were more commonly prescribed in everyday practice, without significant differences in their on– and off–label use. Approximately 1 in 4 patients received an off–label prescription. In the off–label group, the most frequent diagnoses were bipolar disorder (67.5%) or any personality disorder (23.7%). FGA vs SGA LAI choice was significantly associated with BPRS thought disorder (OR = 1.22, CI95% 1.04 to 1.43, p = 0.015) and hostility/suspiciousness (OR = 0.83, CI95% 0.71 to 0.97, p = 0.017) dimensions. The likelihood of receiving an SGA LAI grew steadily with the increase of the BPRS thought disturbance score. Conversely, a preference towards prescribing an FGA was observed with higher scores at the BPRS hostility/suspiciousness subscale. Conclusion: Our study is the first to identify predictors of FGA vs SGA choice in patients treated with off–label LAI antipsychotics. Demographic characteristics, i.e. age, sex, and substance/alcohol use co–morbidities did not appear to influence the choice towards FGAs or SGAs. Despite a lack of evidence, clinicians tend to favour FGA over SGA LAIs in bipolar or personality disorder patients with relevant hostility. Further research is needed to evaluate treatment adherence and clinical effectiveness of these prescriptive patterns

Comparing Long-Acting Antipsychotic Discontinuation Rates Under Ordinary Clinical Circumstances: A Survival Analysis from an Observational, Pragmatic Study

Background: Recent guidelines suggested a wider use of long-acting injectable antipsychotics (LAI) than previously, but naturalistic data on the consequences of LAI use in terms of discontinuation rates and associated factors are still sparse, making it hard for clinicians to be informed on plausible treatment courses. Objective: Our objective was to assess, under real-world clinical circumstances, LAI discontinuation rates over a period of 12 months after a first prescription, reasons for discontinuation, and associated factors. Methods: The STAR Network ‘Depot Study’ was a naturalistic, multicentre, observational prospective study that enrolled subjects initiating a LAI without restrictions on diagnosis, clinical severity or setting. Participants from 32 Italian centres were assessed at baseline and at 6 and 12 months of follow-up. Psychopathology, drug attitude and treatment adherence were measured using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, the Drug Attitude Inventory and the Kemp scale, respectively. Results: The study followed 394 participants for 12 months. The overall discontinuation rate at 12 months was 39.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 34.4–44.3), with paliperidone LAI being the least discontinued LAI (33.9%; 95% CI 25.3–43.5) and olanzapine LAI the most discontinued (62.5%; 95% CI 35.4–84.8). The most frequent reason for discontinuation was onset of adverse events (32.9%; 95% CI 25.6–40.9) followed by participant refusal of the medication (20.6%; 95% CI 14.6–27.9). Medication adherence at baseline was negatively associated with discontinuation risk (hazard ratio [HR] 0.853; 95% CI 0.742–0.981; p = 0.026), whereas being prescribed olanzapine LAI was associated with increased discontinuation risk compared with being prescribed paliperidone LAI (HR 2.156; 95% CI 1.003–4.634; p = 0.049). Conclusions: Clinicians should be aware that LAI discontinuation is a frequent occurrence. LAI choice should be carefully discussed with the patient, taking into account individual characteristics and possible obstacles related to the practicalities of each formulation

Data monitoring roadmap. The experience of the Italian Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders Register

Introduction Over the years, disease registers have been increasingly considered a source of reliable and valuable population studies. However, the validity and reliability of data from registers may be limited by missing data, selection bias or data quality not adequately evaluated or checked.This study reports the analysis of the consistency and completeness of the data in the Italian Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders Register.MethodsThe Register collects, through a standardized Web-based Application, unique patients.Data are exported bimonthly and evaluated to assess the updating and completeness, and to check the quality and consistency. Eight clinical indicators are evaluated.ResultsThe Register counts 77,628 patients registered by 126 centres. The number of centres has increased over time, as their capacity to collect patients.The percentages of updated patients (with at least one visit in the last 24 months) have increased from 33% (enrolment period 2000-2015) to 60% (enrolment period 2016-2022). In the cohort of patients registered after 2016, there were >= 75% updated patients in 30% of the small centres (33), in 9% of the medium centres (11), and in all the large centres (2).Clinical indicators show significant improvement for the active patients, expanded disability status scale every 6 months or once every 12 months, visits every 6 months, first visit within 1 year and MRI every 12 months.ConclusionsData from disease registers provide guidance for evidence-based health policies and research, so methods and strategies ensuring their quality and reliability are crucial and have several potential applications

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation