Interpreting Seroepidemiologic Studies of Influenza in a Context of Nonbracketing Sera

Background: In influenza epidemiology, analysis of paired sera collected from people before and after influenza seasons has been used for decades to study the cumulative incidence of influenza virus infections in populations. However, interpretation becomes challenging when sera are collected after the start or before the end of an epidemic, and do not neatly bracket the epidemic. Methods: Serum samples were collected longitudinally in a community-based study. Most participants provided their first serum after the start of circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in 2009. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to correct for nonbracketing sera and estimate the cumulative incidence of infection from the serological data and surveillance data in Hong Kong. Results: We analyzed 4,843 sera from 2,097 unvaccinated participants in the study, collected from April 2009 to December 2010. After accounting for nonbracketing, we estimated that the cumulative incidence of H1N1pdm09 virus infection was 45% (95% credible interval [CI] = 40%, 49%), 17% (95% CI = 13%, 20%), and 11% (95% CI = 6%, 18%) for children ages 0–18 years, adults 19–50 years, and older adults >50 years, respectively. Including all available data substantially increased precision compared with a simpler analysis based only on sera collected at 6-month intervals in a subset of participants. Conclusions: We developed a framework for the analysis of antibody titers that accounted for the timing of sera collection with respect to influenza activity and permitted robust estimation of the cumulative incidence of infection during an epidemic.postprin

Variability in the immunogenicity of inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine in children due to age and recent previous influenza vaccination

Poster Session: VaccinesBackground: Annual receipt of trivalent inactivated influenza (TIV) vaccination is recommended for school-age children in some countries. However, there is little data on the variability of the immunogenicity of influenza vaccination in children and how this is affected by their age and recent influenza vaccination history. Materials and Methods: We used data on children in a Hong Kong community-based study who were randomized to receive TIV before the 2009-2010 influenza season. Antibody titers against seasonal and pandemic A(H1N1), seasonal A(H3N2), and two B influenza viruses (B/Brisbane and B/Florida) were measured by hemagglutination inhibition immediately before and 1 month after vaccination (Cowling et al. Clin Infect Dis. 2012). Multivariate regression models were fitted in a Bayesian framework to characterize the distribution of changes in antibody titers following vaccination and update previous findings by considering the correlation between virus strains (Ng et al. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2013). Results: In 452 subjects, statistically significant rises in the geometric means of all antibody titers were observed, with those against the virus strains included in the TIV rising by geometric means of 7.95 to 13.36; those against pandemic A(H1N1) and B/Florida rose by 1.47 and 4.21, respectively. Geometric standard deviations were between 3.76 and 8.41 around the geometric means, with pandemic A(H1N1) showing the least variability in rises. The most closely correlated titer increases were those for the two influenza B viruses, while increases in pandemic A(H1N1) titers were unrelated to any other titer. Being vaccinated in either of the two previous years significantly reduced the increase in seasonal A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) antibody titers, while among children not vaccinated in the previous 2 years, those aged > 9 years experienced significantly higher increases in the influenza B titers than those aged 6-8 years. Conclusions: Increases in antibody titers following vaccination can vary depending on age and vaccination history. Results from our study suggest that humoral antibody response to TIV may be lower in children receiving repeated vaccination, but receipt of TIV induced seroprotection in most subjects.published_or_final_versio

Determinants of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D in Hong Kong

Vitamin D plays an important role in skeletal health throughout life. Some studies have hypothesised that vitamin D may reduce the risk of other diseases. Our study aimed to estimate age-specific and sex-specific serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) status and to identify the determinants of serum 25(OH)D status in Hong Kong, a subtropical city in southern China. In 2009-2010, households in Hong Kong were followed up to identify acute respiratory illnesses, and sera from 2694 subjects were collected in three to four different study phases to permit measurement of 25(OH)D levels at different times of the year. A questionnaire survey on diet and lifestyle was conducted among children, with simultaneous serum collection in April and May 2010. The mean of serum 25(OH)D levels in age groups ranged from 39 to 63 nmol/l throughout the year with the mean values in all age groups in spring below 50 nmol/l. Children aged 6-17 years, and girls and women had significantly lower serum 25(OH)D levels than adults, and boys and men, respectively (all P< 0·001). We estimated that serum 25(OH)D levels in Hong Kong followed a lagged pattern relative to climatic season by 5 weeks with lowest observed levels in early spring (March). For children aged 6-17 years, reporting a suntan, having at least 1 servings of fish/week and having at least 1 serving of eggs/week were independently associated with higher serum 25(OH)D levels. Adequate sunlight exposure and increased intake of dietary vitamin D could improve vitamin D status, especially for children and females in the winter and spring.postprin

Inferring Influenza Infection Attack Rate from Seroprevalence Data

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Reduced LRRK2 in association with retromer dysfunction in post-mortem brain tissue from LRRK2 mutation carriers

Missense mutations in leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) are pathogenic for familial Parkinson's disease. However, it is unknown whether levels of LRRK2 protein in the brain are altered in patients with LRRK2-associated Parkinson's disease. Because LRRK2 mutations are relatively rare, accounting for approximately 1% of all Parkinson's disease, we accessioned cases from five international brain banks to investigate levels of the LRRK2 protein, and other genetically associated Parkinson's disease proteins. Brain tissue was obtained from 17 LRRK2 mutation carriers (12 with the G2019S mutation and five with the I2020T mutation) and assayed by immunoblot. Compared to matched controls and idiopathic Parkinson's disease cases, we found levels of LRRK2 protein were reduced in the LRRK2 mutation cases. We also measured a decrease in two other proteins genetically implicated in Parkinson's disease, the core retromer component, vacuolar protein sorting associated protein 35 (VPS35), and the lysosomal hydrolase, glucocerebrosidase (GBA). Moreover, the classical retromer cargo protein, cation-independent mannose-6-phosphate receptor (MPR300, encoded by IGF2R), was also reduced in the LRRK2 mutation cohort and protein levels of the receptor were correlated to levels of LRRK2. These results provide new data on LRRK2 protein expression in brain tissue from LRRK2 mutation carriers and support a relationship between LRRK2 and retromer dysfunction in LRRK2-associated Parkinson's disease brain

Positive solutions for nonlinear singular elliptic equations of p-Laplacian type with dependence on the gradient

In this paper, we study a nonlinear Dirichlet problem of p-Laplacian type with combined effects of nonlinear singular and convection terms. An existence theorem for positive solutions is established as well as the compactness of solution set. Our approach is based on Leray-Schauder alternative principle, method of sub-supersolution, nonlinear regularity, truncation techniques, and set-valued analysis

Estimated Risk for Altered Fetal Growth Resulting from Exposure to Fine Particles during Pregnancy: An Epidemiologic Prospective Cohort Study in Poland

The purpose of this study was to estimate exposure of pregnant women in Poland to fine particulate matter [≤2.5 μm in diameter (PM(2.5))] and to assess its effect on the birth outcomes. The cohort consisted of 362 pregnant women who gave birth between 34 and 43 weeks of gestation. The enrollment included only nonsmoking women with singleton pregnancies, 18–35 years of age, who were free from chronic diseases such as diabetes and hypertension. PM(2.5) was measured by personal air monitoring over 48 hr during the second trimester of pregnancy. All assessed birth effects were adjusted in multiple linear regression models for potential confounding factors such as the size of mother (maternal height, prepregnancy weight), parity, sex of child, gestational age, season of birth, and self-reported environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). The regression model explained 35% of the variability in birth weight (β = −200.8, p = 0.03), and both regression coefficients for PM(2.5) and birth length (β = −1.44, p = 0.01) and head circumference (HC; β = −0.73, p = 0.02) were significant as well. In all regression models, the effect of ETS was insignificant. Predicted reduction in birth weight at an increase of exposure from 10 to 50 μg/m(3) was 140.3 g. The corresponding predicted reduction of birth length would be 1.0 cm, and of HC, 0.5 cm. The study provides new and convincing epidemiologic evidence that high personal exposure to fine particles is associated with adverse effects on the developing fetus. These results indicate the need to reduce ambient fine particulate concentrations. However, further research should establish possible biologic mechanisms explaining the observed relationship

Smoking initiation is followed by the early acquisition of epigenetic change in cervical epithelium: a longitudinal study

background: To prove a causal link between an epigenetic change and an environmental or behavioural risk factor for a given disease, it is first necessary to show that the onset of exposure precedes the first detection of that epigenetic change in subjects who are still free of disease. methods: Towards this end, a cohort of women aged 15–19 years, recruited soon after they first had sexual intercourse, were used to provide sequential observations on the relationship between cigarette smoking and the detection in cervical cytological samples of methylated forms of CDKN2A (p16) using nested methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction. results: Among women who remained cytologically normal and who tested negative for human papillomavirus DNA in cervical smears during follow-up, those who first started to smoke during follow-up had an increased risk of acquiring CDKN2A methylation compared with never-smokers (odds ratio=3.67; 95% confidence interval 1.09–12.33; P=0.04). conclusion: Smoking initiation is associated with the appearance of methylated forms of CDKN2A

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO