A new formulation of compartmental epidemic modelling for arbitrary distributions of incubation and removal times

The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are more flexible, yet do not allow for arbitrary distributions. We present a new formulation, focussing on the SEIR concept that allows to include general distributions of incubation and removal times. We compare the solution to two types of agent-based model simulations, a spatially homogeneous one where infection occurs by proximity, and a model on a scale-free network with varying clustering properties, where the infection between any two agents occurs via their link if it exists. We find good agreement in both cases. Furthermore a family of asymptotic solutions of the equations is found in terms of a logistic curve, which after a non-universal time shift, fits extremely well all the microdynamical simulations. The formulation allows for a simple numerical approach; software in Julia and Python is provided.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures. v2 matches published version: improved presentation (including title, abstract and references), results and conclusions unchange

Determination of the ΔS=1\Delta S = 1 weak Hamiltonian in the SU(4) chiral limit through topological zero-mode wave functions

A new method to determine the low-energy couplings of the $\Delta S=1$ weak Hamiltonian is presented. It relies on a matching of the topological poles in $1/m^2$ of three-point correlators of two pseudoscalar densities and a four-fermion operator, measured in lattice QCD, to the same observables computed in the $\epsilon$-regime of chiral perturbation theory. We test this method in a theory with a light charm quark, i.e. with an SU(4) flavour symmetry. Quenched numerical measurements are performed in a 2 fm box, and chiral perturbation theory predictions are worked out up to next-to-leading order. The matching of the two sides allows to determine the weak low-energy couplings in the SU(4) limit. We compare the results with a previous determination, based on three-point correlators containing two left-handed currents, and discuss the merits and drawbacks of the two procedures.Comment: 38 pages, 9 figure

Weak low-energy couplings from topological zero-mode wavefunctions

We discuss a new method to determine the low-energy couplings of the $\Delta S=1$ weak Hamiltonian in the $\epsilon$-regime. It relies on a matching of the topological poles in $1/m^2$ of three-point functions of two pseudoscalar densities and a four-fermion operator computed in lattice QCD, to the same observables in the Chiral Effective Theory. We present the results of a NLO computation in chiral perturbation theory of these correlation functions together with some preliminary numerical results.Comment: 7 pages. Contribution to Lattice 200

Flavour symmetry restoration and kaon weak matrix elements in quenched twisted mass QCD

We simulate two variants of quenched twisted mass QCD (tmQCD), with degenerate Wilson quarks of masses equal to or heavier than half the strange quark mass. We use Ward identities in order to measure the twist angles of the theory and thus check the quality of the tuning of mass parameters to a physics condition which stays constant as the lattice spacing is varied. Flavour symmetry breaking in tmQCD is studied in a framework of two fully twisted and two standard Wilson quark flavours, tuned to be degenerate in the continuum. Comparing pseudoscalar masses, obtained from connected quark diagrams made of tmQCD and/or standard Wilson quark propagators, we confirm that flavour symmetry breaking effects, which are at most 5%, decrease as we approach the continuum limit. We also compute the pseudoscalar decay constant in the continuum limit, with reduced systematics. As a consequence of improved tuning of the mass parameters at $\beta = 6.1$, we reanalyse our previous $B_K$ results. Our main phenomenological findings are $r_0 f_K = 0.421(7)$ and $\hat B_K = 0.735(71)$.Comment: 41 pages, figures included, one reference added. Final version as accepted for publication on Nucl.Phys.

A precise determination of BKB_K in quenched QCD

The $B_K$ parameter is computed in quenched lattice QCD with Wilson twisted mass fermions. Two variants of tmQCD are used; in both of them the relevant $\Delta S = 2$ four-fermion operator is renormalised multiplicatively. The renormalisation adopted is non-perturbative, with a Schroedinger functional renormalisation condition. Renormalisation group running is also non-perturbative, up to very high energy scales. In one of the two tmQCD frameworks the computations have been performed at the physical $K$-meson mass, thus eliminating the need of mass extrapolations. Simulations have been performed at several lattice spacings and the continuum limit was reached by combining results from both tmQCD regularisations. Finite volume effects have been partially checked and turned out to be small. Exploratory studies have also been performed with non-degenerate valence flavours. The final result for the RGI bag parameter, with all sources of uncertainty (except quenching) under control, is $\hat B_K =0.789 \pm 0.046$.Comment: 54 pages, 11 figure