Using the surface profiles of modern ice masses to inform palaeo-glacier reconstructions

Morphometric study of modern ice masses is useful because many reconstructions of glaciers traditionally draw on their shape for guidance Here we analyse data derived from the surface profiles of 200 modern ice masses-valley glaciers icefields ice caps and ice sheets with length scales from 10(0) to 10(3) km-from different parts of the world Four profile attributes are investigated relief span and two parameters C* and C that result from using Nye s (1952) theoretical parabola as a profile descriptor C* and C respectively measure each profile s aspect ratio and steepness and are found to decrease in size and variability with span This dependence quantifies the competing influences of unconstrained spreading behaviour of ice flow and bed topography on the profile shape of ice masses which becomes more parabolic as span Increases (with C* and C tending to low values of 2 5-3 3 m(1/2)) The same data reveal coherent minimum bounds in C* and C for modern ice masses that we develop into two new methods of palaeo glacier reconstruction In the first method glacial limits are known from moraines and the bounds are used to constrain the lowest palaeo ice surface consistent with modern profiles We give an example of applying this method over a three-dimensional glacial landscape in Kamchatka In the second method we test the plausibility of existing reconstructions by comparing their C* and C against the modern minimum bounds Of the 86 published palaeo ice masses that we put to this test 88% are found to be plausible The search for other morphometric constraints will help us formalise glacier reconstructions and reduce their uncertainty and subjectiveness (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserve

Percussion Convocation

List of performers and performances

PMIP4-CMIP6: the contribution of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to CMIP6

The goal of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to changes in different climate forcings and to feedbacks. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impacts of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art models simulate climate changes. Palaeoclimate states are radically different from those of the recent past documented by the instrumental record and thus provide an out-of-sample test of the models used for future climate projections and a way to assess whether they have the correct sensitivity to forcings and feedbacks. Five distinctly different periods have been selected as focus for the core palaeoclimate experiments that are designed to contribute to the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). This manuscript describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments, with a focus upon their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP as well as the benefits of common analyses of the models across multiple climate states. It also describes the information needed to document each experiment and the model outputs required for analysis and benchmarking

A Senior Recital

Program listing performers and works performe

Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise.

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services1-3. These projections do not necessarily take into account all essential geomorphological4-7 and socio-economic system feedbacks8. Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers both the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, and the accommodation space, namely, the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and be colonized by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global sea-level rise and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the twenty-first century. On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies1-3, we project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.Personal research fellowship of Mark Schuerch (Project Number 272052902) and by the Cambridge Coastal Research Unit (Visiting Scholar Programme). Furthermore, this work has partly been supported by the EU research project RISES-AM- (FP7-ENV-693396)

Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations

Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change

Windsor Police Service Case Study: 2009

This is a case study presented by the Windsor Police Service demonstrating proper methods and procedures used to solve a crime. This is provided to show a real situation in which forensic techniques were required to assist with an investigation.For privacy, individuals other than the officers will not be named or will have substitute names given to them to aid understanding the situation

Moisture Stress Limits Radial Mixing of Non-Structural Carbohydrates in Sapwood of Trembling Aspen

Dynamics in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) pools may underlie observed drought legacies in tree growth. We assessed how aridity influences the dynamics of different-aged NSC pools in tree sapwood at two sites with differing climate conditions (‘wet’ vs ‘dry’), which also experienced widespread regional drought 5 years earlier. We used an incubation method to measure the radiocarbon (Δ14C) in CO2 respired from Populus tremuloides Michx. (aspen) tree rings to evaluate NSC storage and mixing patterns, coupled with measurements of NSC (soluble sugars and starch) concentrations and respired δ13C-CO2. At a wet site, CO2 respired from rings formed during 1962–67 was only ~11 years old, suggesting deep sapwood mixing of NSCs as starch. At a dry site, the total NSC was about one-third of wet-site totals, maximum ages in deep rings were lower and ages more rapidly increased in shallow rings and then plateaued. These results suggest historically shallower mixing and/or relatively higher consumption of NSCs under dry conditions. Both sites, however, had similar aged NSC (\u3c 1 year) in the most recent six rings, indicative of deep radial mixing following relatively wet conditions during the sampling year. We suggest that the significant differences in NSC mixing among sites are driven by moisture stress, where aridity reduces NSC reserves and restricts the depth of radial mixing. However, dynamic climate conditions in the south-western USA resulted in more complex radial patterns of sapwood NSC age than previously described. We suggest a novel conceptual framework to understand how moisture variability might influence the dynamics of NSC mixing in the sapwood