The long memory model of political support: some further results

This paper extends the results of Byers, Davidson and Peel (1997) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0,d,0) model though with somewhat smaller values of the long memory parameter. We find that the move to telephone polling in the mid-1990s has no apparent effect on the estimated value of d for either party. Finally, we find that we cannot reject the hypotheses that the parties share a common long memory parameter which we estimate at around 0.65.

Compression failure of angle-ply laminates

The present work deals with modes and mechanisms of failure in compression of angle-ply laminates. Experimental results were obtained from 42 angle-ply IM7/8551-7a specimens with a lay-up of ((plus or minus theta)/(plus or minus theta)) sub 6s where theta, the off-axis angle, ranged from 0 degrees to 90 degrees. The results showed four failure modes, these modes being a function of off-axis angle. Failure modes include fiber compression, inplane transverse tension, inplane shear, and inplane transverse compression. Excessive interlaminar shear strain was also considered as an important mode of failure. At low off-axis angles, experimentally observed values were considerably lower than published strengths. It was determined that laminate imperfections in the form of layer waviness could be a major factor in reducing compression strength. Previously developed linear buckling and geometrically nonlinear theories were used, with modifications and enhancements, to examine the influence of layer waviness on compression response. The wavy layer is described by a wave amplitude and a wave length. Linear elastic stress-strain response is assumed. The geometrically nonlinear theory, in conjunction with the maximum stress failure criterion, was used to predict compression failure and failure modes for the angle-ply laminates. A range of wave length and amplitudes were used. It was found that for 0 less than or equal to theta less than or equal to 15 degrees failure was most likely due to fiber compression. For 15 degrees less than theta less than or equal to 35 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane transverse tension. For 35 degrees less than theta less than or equal to 70 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane shear. For theta less than 70 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane transverse compression. The fiber compression and transverse tension failure modes depended more heavily on wave length than on wave amplitude. Thus using a single parameter, such as a ratio of wave amplitude to wave length, to describe waviness in a laminate would be inaccurate. Throughout, results for AS4/3502, studied previously, are included for comparison. At low off-axis angles, the AS4/3502 material system was found to be less sensitive to layer waviness than IM7/8551-7a. Analytical predictions were also obtained for laminates with waviness in only some of the layers. For this type of waviness, laminate compression strength could also be considered a function of which layers in the laminate were wavy, and where those wavy layers were. Overall, the geometrically nonlinear model correlates well with experimental results

An examination of the precipitation delivery mechanisms for Dolleman Island, eastern Antarctic Peninsula

Copyright @ 2004 Wiley-BlackwellThe variability of size and source of significant precipitation events were studied at an Antarctic ice core drilling site: Dolleman Island (DI), located on the eastern coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Significant precipitation events that occur at DI were temporally located in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data set, ERA-40. The annual and summer precipitation totals from ERA-40 at DI both show significant increases over the reanalysis period. Three-dimensional backwards air parcel trajectories were then run for 5 d using the ECMWF ERA-15 wind fields. Cluster analyses were performed on two sets of these backwards trajectories: all days in the range 1979–1992 (the climatological time-scale) and a subset of days when a significant precipitation event occurred. The principal air mass sources and delivery mechanisms were found to be the Weddell Sea via lee cyclogenesis, the South Atlantic when there was a weak circumpolar trough (CPT) and the South Pacific when the CPT was deep. The occurrence of precipitation bearing air masses arriving via a strong CPT was found to have a significant correlation with the southern annular mode (SAM); however, the arrival of air masses from the same region over the climatological time-scale showed no such correlation. Despite the dominance in both groups of back trajectories of the westerly circulation around Antarctica, some other key patterns were identified. Most notably there was a higher frequency of lee cyclogenesis events in the significant precipitation trajectories compared to the climatological time-scale. There was also a tendency for precipitation trajectories to come from more northerly latitudes, mostly from 50–70°S. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a strong influence on the mechanism by which the precipitation was delivered; the frequency of occurrence of precipitation from the east (west) of DI increased during El Niño (La Niña) events

Сила и ее проявление студентами ВГМУ

СИЛАМЫШЦЫСТУДЕНТЫ МЕДИЦИНСКИХ УЧЕБНЫХ ЗАВЕДЕНИ

Higher-Order Risk Preferences, Constant Relative Risk Aversion and the Optimal Portfolio Allocation

We derive the conditions for optimal portfolio choice within an expected utility framework considering alternative probability distributions that are able to capture the stylized features of asset returns at different degrees of accuracy. We show the importance of higher-order moments in the optimal decision on liquidity and relate them with the risk preference properties of riskiness, prudence and temperance

Our Peculiar Motion Away from the Local Void

The peculiar velocity of the Local Group of galaxies manifested in the Cosmic Microwave Background dipole is found to decompose into three dominant components. The three components are clearly separated because they arise on distinct spatial scales and are fortuitously almost orthogonal in their influences. The nearest, which is distinguished by a velocity discontinuity at ~7 Mpc, arises from the evacuation of the Local Void. We lie in the Local Sheet that bounds the void. Random motions within the Local Sheet are small. Our Galaxy participates in the bulk motion of the Local Sheet away from the Local Void. The component of our motion on an intermediate scale is attributed to the Virgo Cluster and its surroundings, 17 Mpc away. The third and largest component is an attraction on scales larger than 3000 km/s and centered near the direction of the Centaurus Cluster. The amplitudes of the three components are 259, 185, and 455 km/s, respectively, adding collectively to 631 km/s in the reference frame of the Local Sheet. Taking the nearby influences into account causes the residual attributed to large scales to align with observed concentrations of distant galaxies and reduces somewhat the amplitude of motion attributed to their pull. On small scales, in addition to the motion of our Local Sheet away from the Local Void, the nearest adjacent filament, the Leo Spur, is seen to be moving in a direction that will lead to convergence with our filament. Finally, a good distance to an isolated galaxy within the Local Void reveals that this dwarf system has a motion of at least 230 km/s away from the void center. Given the velocities expected from gravitational instability theory in the standard cosmological paradigm, the distance to the center of the Local Void must be at least 23 Mpc from our position. The Local Void is large!Comment: Tentatively scheduled for Astrophysical Journal, 676 (March 20), 2008. 18 figures, 3 tables including web link for 2 tables, web links to 2 video

An Exact No Free Lunch Theorem for Community Detection

A precondition for a No Free Lunch theorem is evaluation with a loss function which does not assume a priori superiority of some outputs over others. A previous result for community detection by Peel et al. (2017) relies on a mismatch between the loss function and the problem domain. The loss function computes an expectation over only a subset of the universe of possible outputs; thus, it is only asymptotically appropriate with respect to the problem size. By using the correct random model for the problem domain, we provide a stronger, exact No Free Lunch theorem for community detection. The claim generalizes to other set-partitioning tasks including core/periphery separation, $k$-clustering, and graph partitioning. Finally, we review the literature of proposed evaluation functions and identify functions which (perhaps with slight modifications) are compatible with an exact No Free Lunch theorem

Spatial navigation impairments among intellectually high-functioning adults with autism spectrum disorder: Exploring relations with theory of mind, episodic memory, and episodic future thinking

Research suggests that spatial navigation relies on the same neural network as episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and theory of mind (ToM). Such findings have stimulated theories (e.g., the scene construction and self-projection hypotheses) concerning possible common underlying cognitive capacities. Consistent with such theories, autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by concurrent impairments in episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and ToM. However, it is currently unclear whether spatial navigation is also impaired. Hence, ASD provides a test case for the scene construction and self-projection theories. The study of spatial navigation in ASD also provides a test of the extreme male brain theory of ASD, which predicts intact or superior navigation (purportedly a systemizing skill) performance among individuals with ASD. Thus, the aim of the current study was to establish whether spatial navigation in ASD is impaired, intact, or superior. Twenty-seven intellectually high-functioning adults with ASD and 28 sex-, age-, and IQ-matched neurotypical comparison adults completed the memory island virtual navigation task. Tests of episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and ToM were also completed. Participants with ASD showed significantly diminished performance on the memory island task, and performance was positively related to ToM and episodic memory, but not episodic future thinking. These results suggest that (contra the extreme male brain theory) individuals with ASD have impaired survey-based navigation skills—that is, difficulties generating cognitive maps of the environment—and adds weight to the idea that scene construction/self-projection are impaired in ASD. The theoretical and clinical implications of these results are discussed

Exposure to Household Air Pollution from Biomass-Burning Cookstoves and HbA1c and Diabetic Status Among Honduran Women

Household air pollution from biomass cookstoves is estimated to be responsible for more than two and a half million premature deaths annually, primarily in low and middle‐income countries where cardiometabolic disorders, such as Type II Diabetes, are increasing. Growing evidence supports a link between ambient air pollution and diabetes, but evidence for household air pollution is limited. This cross‐sectional study of 142 women (72 with traditional stoves and 70 with cleaner‐burning Justa stoves) in rural Honduras evaluated the association of exposure to household air pollution (stove type, 24‐hour average kitchen and personal fine particulate matter [PM2.5] mass and black carbon) with glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and diabetic status based on HbA1c levels. The prevalence ratio (PR) per interquartile range increase in pollution concentration indicated higher prevalence of prediabetes/diabetes (vs normal HbA1c) for all pollutant measures (eg, PR per 84 μg/m3 increase in personal PM2.5, 1.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11‐2.01). Results for HbA1c as a continuous variable were generally in the hypothesized direction. These results provide some evidence linking household air pollution with the prevalence of prediabetes/diabetes, and, if confirmed, suggest that the global public health impact of household air pollution may be broader than currently estimated

C-Band All-Sky Survey: A First Look at the Galaxy

We present an analysis of the diffuse emission at 5 GHz in the first quadrant of the Galactic plane using two months of preliminary intensity data taken with the C-Band All Sky Survey (C-BASS) northern instrument at the Owens Valley Radio Observatory, California. Combining C-BASS maps with ancillary data to make temperature-temperature plots we find synchrotron spectral indices of $\beta = -2.65 \pm 0.05$ between 0.408 GHz and 5 GHz and $\beta = -2.72 \pm 0.09$ between 1.420 GHz and 5 GHz for $-10^{\circ} < |b| < -4^{\circ}$, $20^{\circ} < l < 40^{\circ}$. Through the subtraction of a radio recombination line (RRL) free-free template we determine the synchrotron spectral index in the Galactic plane ($|b| < 4^{\circ}$) to be $\beta = -2.56 \pm 0.07$ between 0.408 GHz and 5 GHz, with a contribution of $53 \pm 8$ per cent from free-free emission at 5\,GHz. These results are consistent with previous low frequency measurements in the Galactic plane. By including C-BASS data in spectral fits we demonstrate the presence of anomalous microwave emission (AME) associated with the HII complexes W43, W44 and W47 near 30 GHz, at 4.4 sigma, 3.1 sigma and 2.5 sigma respectively. The CORNISH VLA 5 GHz source catalogue rules out the possibility that the excess emission detected around 30\;GHz may be due to ultra-compact HII regions. Diffuse AME was also identified at a 4 sigma level within $30^{\circ} < l < 40^{\circ}$, $-2^{\circ} < b < 2^{\circ}$ between 5 GHz and 22.8 GHz.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, submitted to MNRAS, referee's corrections made, awaiting for final approval for publicatio