Sources of pro-cyclicality in east Asian financial systems

Procyclicality is a normal feature of economic systems, but financial sector weaknesses can exacerbate it sufficiently to pose a threat to macroeconomic and financial stability. These include shortcomings in bank risk management and governance, in supervision and in terms of dependence on volatile sources of funds. The paper tests econometrically for the importance of such features leading to pro-cyclicality in the financial systems of 11 East Asian countries. This analysis makes it possible to identify specific policy measures for East Asian countries that could limit the extent to which financial systems exacerbate pro-cyclicality

The risk factors potentially influencing hospital admission in people with diabetes, following SARS-CoV-2 infection : a population-level analysis

Introduction: Since early 2020 the whole world has been challenged by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the associated global pandemic (Covid-19). People with diabetes are particularly at high risk of becoming seriously unwell after contracting this virus. Methods: This population-based study included people living in the Greater Manchester conurbation who had a recorded diagnosis of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and subsequent Covid-19 infection. Each individual with T1DM (n = 862) or T2DM (n = 13,225) was matched with three Covid-19-infected non-diabetes controls. Results: For individuals with T1DM, hospital admission rate in the first 28 days after a positive Covid-19 test was 10% vs 4.7% in age/gender-matched controls [relative risk (RR) 2.1]. For individuals with T2DM, hospital admission rate after a positive Covid-19 test was 16.3% vs 11.6% in age/gender-matched controls (RR 1.4). The average Townsend score was higher in T2DM (1.8) vs matched controls (0.4), with a higher proportion of people with T2DM observed in the top two quintiles of greatest disadvantage (p < 0.001). For Covid-19-infected individuals with T1DM, factors influencing admission likelihood included age, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, HbA1c, low HDL-cholesterol, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and being of African/mixed ethnicity. In Covid-19-infected individuals with T2DM, factors related to a higher admission rate included age, Townsend index, comorbidity with COPD/asthma and severe mental illness (SMI), lower eGFR. Metformin prescription lowered the likelihood. For multivariate analysis in combined individuals with T2DM/controls, factors relating to higher likelihood of admission were having T2DM/age/male gender/diagnosed COPD/diagnosed hypertension/social deprivation (higher Townsend index) and non-white ethnicity (all groups). Conclusion: In a UK population we have confirmed a significantly higher likelihood of admission in people with diabetes following Covid-19 infection. A number of factors mediate that increased likelihood of hospital admission. For T2DM, the majority of factors related to increased admission rate are common to the general population but more prevalent in T2DM. There was a protective effect of metformin in people with T2DM

Cold gas accretion in galaxies

Evidence for the accretion of cold gas in galaxies has been rapidly accumulating in the past years. HI observations of galaxies and their environment have brought to light new facts and phenomena which are evidence of ongoing or recent accretion: 1) A large number of galaxies are accompanied by gas-rich dwarfs or are surrounded by HI cloud complexes, tails and filaments. It may be regarded as direct evidence of cold gas accretion in the local universe. It is probably the same kind of phenomenon of material infall as the stellar streams observed in the halos of our galaxy and M31. 2) Considerable amounts of extra-planar HI have been found in nearby spiral galaxies. While a large fraction of this gas is produced by galactic fountains, it is likely that a part of it is of extragalactic origin. 3) Spirals are known to have extended and warped outer layers of HI. It is not clear how these have formed, and how and for how long the warps can be sustained. Gas infall has been proposed as the origin. 4) The majority of galactic disks are lopsided in their morphology as well as in their kinematics. Also here recent accretion has been advocated as a possible cause. In our view, accretion takes place both through the arrival and merging of gas-rich satellites and through gas infall from the intergalactic medium (IGM). The infall may have observable effects on the disk such as bursts of star formation and lopsidedness. We infer a mean ``visible'' accretion rate of cold gas in galaxies of at least 0.2 Msol/yr. In order to reach the accretion rates needed to sustain the observed star formation (~1 Msol/yr), additional infall of large amounts of gas from the IGM seems to be required.Comment: To appear in Astronomy & Astrophysics Reviews. 34 pages. Full-resolution version available at http://www.astron.nl/~oosterlo/accretionRevie

The Failure of ECB Monetary Policy from a Mises-Hayek Perspective

The paper analyses the common European monetary policy based on a Mises-Hayek overinvestment framework, which is combined with the theory of optimum currency areas. It shows how since the turn of the millennium a too expansionary monetary policy contributed to unsustainable overinvestment booms in the periphery of the European Monetary Union, and more recently in Germany, dependent on the national fiscal policy stances. It is argued that the ECB´s ultra-loose monetary policy as a crisis therapy puts a drag on long-term growth by conserving distorted economic structures. To preserve political stability a timely exit from the ultra-expansionary monetary policy is postulated

Habitat quality influences population distribution, individual space use and functional responses in habitat selection by a large herbivore

Identifying factors shaping variation in resource selection is central for our understanding of the behaviour and distribution of animals. We examined summer habitat selection and space use by 108 Global Positioning System (GPS)-collared moose in Norway in relation to sex, reproductive status, habitat quality, and availability. Moose selected habitat types based on a combination of forage quality and availability of suitable habitat types. Selection of protective cover was strongest for reproducing females, likely reflecting the need to protect young. Males showed strong selection for habitat types with high quality forage, possibly due to higher energy requirements. Selection for preferred habitat types providing food and cover was a positive function of their availability within home ranges (i.e. not proportional use) indicating functional response in habitat selection. This relationship was not found for unproductive habitat types. Moreover, home ranges with high cover of unproductive habitat types were larger, and smaller home ranges contained higher proportions of the most preferred habitat type. The distribution of moose within the study area was partly related to the distribution of different habitat types. Our study shows how distribution and availability of habitat types providing cover and high-quality food shape ungulate habitat selection and space use

An Assessment of H1N1 Influenza-Associated Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Severity after Adjustment for Treatment Characteristics

Pandemic influenza caused significant increases in healthcare utilization across several continents including the use of high-intensity rescue therapies like extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) or high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV). The severity of illness observed with pandemic influenza in 2009 strained healthcare resources. Because lung injury in ARDS can be influenced by daily management and multiple organ failure, we performed a retrospective cohort study to understand the severity of H1N1 associated ARDS after adjustment for treatment. Sixty subjects were identified in our hospital with ARDS from “direct injury” within 24 hours of ICU admission over a three month period. Twenty-three subjects (38.3%) were positive for H1N1 within 72 hours of hospitalization. These cases of H1N1-associated ARDS were compared to non-H1N1 associated ARDS patients. Subjects with H1N1-associated ARDS were younger and more likely to have a higher body mass index (BMI), present more rapidly and have worse oxygenation. Severity of illness (SOFA score) was directly related to worse oxygenation. Management was similar between the two groups on the day of admission and subsequent five days with respect to tidal volumes used, fluid balance and transfusion practices. There was, however, more frequent use of “rescue” therapy like prone ventilation, HFOV or ECMO in H1N1 patients. First morning set tidal volumes and BMI were significantly associated with increased severity of lung injury (Lung injury score, LIS) at presentation and over time while prior prescription of statins was protective. After assessment of the effect of these co-interventions LIS was significantly higher in H1N1 patients. Patients with pandemic influenza-associated ARDS had higher LIS both at presentation and over the course of the first six days of treatment when compared to non-H1N1 associated ARDS controls. The difference in LIS persisted over the duration of observation in patients with H1N1 possibly explaining the increased duration of mechanical ventilation

Confronting Uncertainty in Wildlife Management: Performance of Grizzly Bear Management

Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone – discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels – led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty) revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty. &nbsp

Peer navigation improves diagnostic follow-up after breast cancer screening among Korean American women: results of a randomized trial

To test an intervention to increase adherence to diagnostic follow-up tests among Asian American women. Korean American women who were referred for a diagnostic follow-up test (mainly diagnostic mammograms) and who had missed their follow-up appointment were eligible to participate in the study. Women from two clinics (n&nbsp;=&nbsp;176) were randomly allocated to a usual care control arm or a peer navigator intervention arm. A 20-min telephone survey was administered to women in both study arms six&nbsp;months after they were identified to assess demographic and socio-economic characteristics and the primary outcome, self-reported completion of the recommended follow-up exam. Among women who completed the survey at six-month follow-up, self-reported completion of follow-up procedures was 97% in the intervention arm and 67% in the control arm (p&nbsp;&lt;&nbsp;0.001). Based on an intent-to-treat analysis of all women who were randomized and an assumption of no completion of follow-up exam for women with missing outcome data, self-reported completion of follow-up was 61% in the intervention arm and 46% in the usual care control arm (p&nbsp;&lt;&nbsp;0.069). Our results suggest that a peer navigator intervention to assist Korean American women to obtain follow-up diagnostic tests after an abnormal breast cancer screening test is efficacious

Nuclear Kaiso Expression Is Associated with High Grade and Triple-Negative Invasive Breast Cancer

Kaiso is a BTB/POZ transcription factor that is ubiquitously expressed in multiple cell types and functions as a transcriptional repressor and activator. Little is known about Kaiso expression and localization in breast cancer. Here, we have related pathological features and molecular subtypes to Kaiso expression in 477 cases of human invasive breast cancer. Nuclear Kaiso was predominantly found in invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) (p = 0.007), while cytoplasmic Kaiso expression was linked to invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) (p = 0.006). Although cytoplasmic Kaiso did not correlate to clinicopathological features, we found a significant correlation between nuclear Kaiso, high histological grade (p = 0.023), ERα negativity (p = 0.001), and the HER2-driven and basal/triple-negative breast cancers (p = 0.018). Interestingly, nuclear Kaiso was also abundant in BRCA1-associated breast cancer (p<0.001) and invasive breast cancer overexpressing EGFR (p = 0.019). We observed a correlation between nuclear Kaiso and membrane-localized E-cadherin and p120-catenin (p120) (p<0.01). In contrast, cytoplasmic p120 strongly correlated with loss of E-cadherin and low nuclear Kaiso (p = 0.005). We could confirm these findings in human ILC cells and cell lines derived from conditional mouse models of ILC. Moreover, we present functional data that substantiate a mechanism whereby E-cadherin controls p120-mediated relief of Kaiso-dependent gene repression. In conclusion, our data indicate that nuclear Kaiso is common in clinically aggressive ductal breast cancer, while cytoplasmic Kaiso and a p120-mediated relief of Kaiso-dependent transcriptional repression characterize ILC