Sequential Extensions of Causal and Evidential Decision Theory

Moving beyond the dualistic view in AI where agent and environment are separated incurs new challenges for decision making, as calculation of expected utility is no longer straightforward. The non-dualistic decision theory literature is split between causal decision theory and evidential decision theory. We extend these decision algorithms to the sequential setting where the agent alternates between taking actions and observing their consequences. We find that evidential decision theory has two natural extensions while causal decision theory only has one.Comment: ADT 201

Causal inference based on counterfactuals

BACKGROUND: The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. DISCUSSION: This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. SUMMARY: Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept

Recognition and Alleviation of Pain in Animals

The pain and distress which animals experience as a consequence of their use by man figures prominently in discussions of animal welfare. Some improvements have been made in animal housing and husbandry practices and it is likely that further progress will be made in this field. In comparison, relatively little attention has been given to the problem of minimizing the pain and distress caused to animals by the various procedures to which they are subjected. The most publicized of these are the wide range of experimental techniques which are undertaken using laboratory animals, but also includes procedures such as castration of farm animals and neutering operations carried out on pet animals. The prevention or alleviation of the pain associated with such procedures is a complex problem with no single, simple solution. Consideration must be given to the use of analgesic drugs, the provision of high standards of general care, and the use of special nursing techniques. When dealing with post-operative care, the pre-operative management ofthe animal, the operative procedures and the anesthetic regime must all be evaluated and, when necessary, modified to minimize pain or discomfort

The Cluster Variation Method for Efficient Linkage Analysis on Extended Pedigrees

BACKGROUND: Computing exact multipoint LOD scores for extended pedigrees rapidly becomes infeasible as the number of markers and untyped individuals increase. When markers are excluded from the computation, significant power may be lost. Therefore accurate approximate methods which take into account all markers are desirable. METHODS: We present a novel method for efficient estimation of LOD scores on extended pedigrees. Our approach is based on the Cluster Variation Method, which deterministically estimates likelihoods by performing exact computations on tractable subsets of variables (clusters) of a Bayesian network. First a distribution over inheritances on the marker loci is approximated with the Cluster Variation Method. Then this distribution is used to estimate the LOD score for each location of the trait locus. RESULTS: First we demonstrate that significant power may be lost if markers are ignored in the multi-point analysis. On a set of pedigrees where exact computation is possible we compare the estimates of the LOD scores obtained with our method to the exact LOD scores. Secondly, we compare our method to a state of the art MCMC sampler. When both methods are given equal computation time, our method is more efficient. Finally, we show that CVM scales to large problem instances. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the Cluster Variation Method is as accurate as MCMC and generally is more efficient. Our method is a promising alternative to approaches based on MCMC sampling

What Can Causal Networks Tell Us about Metabolic Pathways?

Graphical models describe the linear correlation structure of data and have been used to establish causal relationships among phenotypes in genetic mapping populations. Data are typically collected at a single point in time. Biological processes on the other hand are often non-linear and display time varying dynamics. The extent to which graphical models can recapitulate the architecture of an underlying biological processes is not well understood. We consider metabolic networks with known stoichiometry to address the fundamental question: “What can causal networks tell us about metabolic pathways?”. Using data from an Arabidopsis BaySha population and simulated data from dynamic models of pathway motifs, we assess our ability to reconstruct metabolic pathways using graphical models. Our results highlight the necessity of non-genetic residual biological variation for reliable inference. Recovery of the ordering within a pathway is possible, but should not be expected. Causal inference is sensitive to subtle patterns in the correlation structure that may be driven by a variety of factors, which may not emphasize the substrate-product relationship. We illustrate the effects of metabolic pathway architecture, epistasis and stochastic variation on correlation structure and graphical model-derived networks. We conclude that graphical models should be interpreted cautiously, especially if the implied causal relationships are to be used in the design of intervention strategies

Towards a comprehensive structural coverage of completed genomes: a structural genomics viewpoint

BACKGROUND: Structural genomics initiatives were established with the aim of solving protein structures on a large-scale. For many initiatives, such as the Protein Structure Initiative (PSI), the primary aim of target selection is focussed towards structurally characterising protein families which, so far, lack a structural representative. It is therefore of considerable interest to gain insights into the number and distribution of these families, and what efforts may be required to achieve a comprehensive structural coverage across all protein families. RESULTS: In this analysis we have derived a comprehensive domain annotation of the genomes using CATH, Pfam-A and Newfam domain families. We consider what proportions of structurally uncharacterised families are accessible to high-throughput structural genomics pipelines, specifically those targeting families containing multiple prokaryotic orthologues. In measuring the domain coverage of the genomes, we show the benefits of selecting targets from both structurally uncharacterised domain families, whilst in addition, pursuing additional targets from large structurally characterised protein superfamilies. CONCLUSION: This work suggests that such a combined approach to target selection is essential if structural genomics is to achieve a comprehensive structural coverage of the genomes, leading to greater insights into structure and the mechanisms that underlie protein evolution

Using Stochastic Causal Trees to Augment Bayesian Networks for Modeling eQTL Datasets

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The combination of genotypic and genome-wide expression data arising from segregating populations offers an unprecedented opportunity to model and dissect complex phenotypes. The immense potential offered by these data derives from the fact that genotypic variation is the sole source of perturbation and can therefore be used to reconcile changes in gene expression programs with the parental genotypes. To date, several methodologies have been developed for modeling eQTL data. These methods generally leverage genotypic data to resolve causal relationships among gene pairs implicated as associates in the expression data. In particular, leading studies have augmented Bayesian networks with genotypic data, providing a powerful framework for learning and modeling causal relationships. While these initial efforts have provided promising results, one major drawback associated with these methods is that they are generally limited to resolving causal orderings for transcripts most proximal to the genomic loci. In this manuscript, we present a probabilistic method capable of learning the causal relationships between transcripts at all levels in the network. We use the information provided by our method as a prior for Bayesian network structure learning, resulting in enhanced performance for gene network reconstruction.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using established protocols to synthesize eQTL networks and corresponding data, we show that our method achieves improved performance over existing leading methods. For the goal of gene network reconstruction, our method achieves improvements in recall ranging from 20% to 90% across a broad range of precision levels and for datasets of varying sample sizes. Additionally, we show that the learned networks can be utilized for expression quantitative trait loci mapping, resulting in upwards of 10-fold increases in recall over traditional univariate mapping.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Using the information from our method as a prior for Bayesian network structure learning yields large improvements in accuracy for the tasks of gene network reconstruction and expression quantitative trait loci mapping. In particular, our method is effective for establishing causal relationships between transcripts located both proximally and distally from genomic loci.</p