A 2017 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity

We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.Cambridge Conservation Initiative, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Arcadia, Natural Environment Research Council (Grant ID: NE/N014472/1

Disentangling the Relative Importance of Changes in Climate and Land-Use Intensity in Driving Recent Bird Population Trends

Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends) has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations

Breeding productivity, nest-site selection and conservation needs of the endemic Turkestan Ground-jay Podoces panderi

The Turkestan Ground-jay Podoces panderi, a corvid endemic to the deserts of Central Asia, is both understudied and under-protected. Using standardised nest-monitoring protocols and nest cameras, we estimated its breeding productivity for the first time as 0.586 fledglings per nesting attempt (inter-quartile range, IQR 0.413‒0.734), strongly constrained by a diverse set of predator species (accounting for 88% of failures), supporting the broad pattern that a wide spectrum of nest predators operate in arid environments. The probability of nest success for the 35 days from the start of incubation to fledging was low, 0.186 ± 0.06 se (N = 37), with no influence of season date, nest height or nest shrub species. However, pervasive shrub harvest severely limited availability of taller shrubs for nest-site selection, and thus our ability to detect any effect of height on nest survival. Mean clutch size was 4.8 ± 0.8 sd while hatching probability of an egg from a clutch surviving incubation was 0.800 ± 0.050 se and fledging probability was 0.824 ± 0.093 se for individual chicks in successful nests (i.e. that fledged one or more chicks). Two shrub genera, saxaul Haloxylon spp. and Calligonum spp., were used for nesting more frequently than expected (χ152 = 784.02, P < 0.001), highlighting their importance to breeding habitat suitability. This near-sole reliance on these taller shrub genera, both targeted for illegal cutting, indicates that habitat degradation may lead to increased predation and declines in productivity. Habitat conservation is, therefore, likely to be the most important management strategy for the species and other components of desert systems, as management of so diverse a set of nest predators would be both impractical and inappropriate

Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding

Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major), breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general) can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships

Both habitat change and local lek structure influence patterns of spatial loss and recovery in a black grouse population

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10144-015-0484-3Land use change is a major driver of declines in wildlife populations. Where human economic or recreational interests and wildlife share landscapes this problem is exacerbated. Changes in UK black grouse Tetrao tetrix populations are thought to have been strongly influenced by upland land use change. In a long-studied population within Perthshire, lek persistence is positively correlated with lek size, and remaining leks clustered most strongly within the landscape when the population is lowest, suggesting that there may be a demographic and/or spatial context to the reaction of the population to habitat changes. Hierarchical cluster analysis of lek locations revealed that patterns of lek occupancy when the population was declining were different to those during the later recovery period. Response curves from lek-habitat models developed using MaxEnt for periods with a declining population, low population, and recovering population were consistent across years for most habitat measures. We found evidence linking lek persistence with habitat quality changes and more leks which appeared between 1994 and 2008 were in improving habitat than those which disappeared during the same period. Generalised additive models (GAMs) identified changes in woodland and starting lek size as being important indicators of lek survival between declining and low/recovery periods. There may also have been a role for local densities in explaining recovery since the population low point. Persistence of black grouse leks was influenced by habitat, but changes in this alone did not fully account for black grouse declines. Even when surrounded by good quality habitat, leks can be susceptible to extirpation due to isolation

Extreme events are more likely to affect the breeding success of lesser kestrels than average climate change

Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population. Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and climate change hotspotinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A Functional Genomics Approach to Establish the Complement of Carbohydrate Transporters in Streptococcus pneumoniae

The aerotolerant anaerobe Streptococcus pneumoniae is part of the normal nasopharyngeal microbiota of humans and one of the most important invasive pathogens. A genomic survey allowed establishing the occurrence of twenty-one phosphotransferase systems, seven carbohydrate uptake ABC transporters, one sodium∶solute symporter and a permease, underlining an exceptionally high capacity for uptake of carbohydrate substrates. Despite high genomic variability, combined phenotypic and genomic analysis of twenty sequenced strains did assign the substrate specificity only to two uptake systems. Systematic analysis of mutants for most carbohydrate transporters enabled us to assign a phenotype and substrate specificity to twenty-three transport systems. For five putative transporters for galactose, pentoses, ribonucleosides and sulphated glycans activity was inferred, but not experimentally confirmed and only one transport system remains with an unknown substrate and lack of any functional annotation. Using a metabolic approach, 80% of the thirty-two fermentable carbon substrates were assigned to the corresponding transporter. The complexity and robustness of sugar uptake is underlined by the finding that many transporters have multiple substrates, and many sugars are transported by more than one system. The present work permits to draw a functional map of the complete arsenal of carbohydrate utilisation proteins of pneumococci, allows re-annotation of genomic data and might serve as a reference for related species. These data provide tools for specific investigation of the roles of the different carbon substrates on pneumococcal physiology in the host during carriage and invasive infection

Early influences on cardiovascular and renal development

The hypothesis that a developmental component plays a role in subsequent disease initially arose from epidemiological studies relating birth size to both risk factors for cardiovascular disease and actual cardiovascular disease prevalence in later life. The findings that small size at birth is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease have led to concerns about the effect size and the causality of the associations. However, recent studies have overcome most methodological flaws and suggested small effect sizes for these associations for the individual, but an potential important effect size on a population level. Various mechanisms underlying these associations have been hypothesized, including fetal undernutrition, genetic susceptibility and postnatal accelerated growth. The specific adverse exposures in fetal and early postnatal life leading to cardiovascular disease in adult life are not yet fully understood. Current studies suggest that both environmental and genetic factors in various periods of life may underlie the complex associations of fetal growth retardation and low birth weight with cardiovascular disease in later life. To estimate the population effect size and to identify the underlying mechanisms, well-designed epidemiological studies are needed. This review is focused on specific adverse fetal exposures, cardiovascular adaptations and perspectives for new studies. Copyrigh