On The Financial Characteristics Of Firms That Have Achieved The Highest Levels Of Accuracy In Earnings Predictability

The value of a company is said to be a function of the future earnings or cash flows the company will produce discounted at a rate commensurate with risks associated with those cash flows. The subject of earnings predictability or the lack of reliable forecasts has been of interest to academic researchers and financial managers for years. Value Line publishes weekly, a ranking of the reliability of earnings predictions for every firm in their database. The higher the Value Line ranking for earnings predictability, the more likely they would recommend it as a safe investment. Earnings predictability is then, simply one of their important measures of potential value and safety.  The purpose of this study is to provide a financial analysis of those firms described by Value Line as having the most reliable levels of earnings predictability in their database. Specifically, the analysis will test for significant differences in the financial profiles of those firms that achieved the highest Value Line ratings for earnings predictability, and companies selected at random from the same industries.  A unique financial profile is estab­lished for the highest rated group, and it is suggested that the profile may be used to identify firms that because of their financial nature are capable of producing the most accurate sales forecasts, and earnings predictability. As in previous studies of this nature Multiple Discriminant Analysis is used.&nbsp

quasiharmonic equations of state for dynamically-stabilized soft-mode materials

We introduce a method for treating soft modes within the analytical framework of the quasiharmonic equation of state. The corresponding double-well energy-displacement relation is fitted to a functional form that is harmonic in both the low- and high-energy limits. Using density-functional calculations and statistical physics, we apply the quasiharmonic methodology to solid periclase. We predict the existence of a B1--B2 phase transition at high pressures and temperatures

Co-Operative Additive Effects between HLA Alleles in Control of HIV-1

Background: HLA class I genotype is a major determinant of the outcome of HIV infection, and the impact of certain alleles on HIV disease outcome is well studied. Recent studies have demonstrated that certain HLA class I alleles that are in linkage disequilibrium, such as HLA-A*74 and HLA-B*57, appear to function co-operatively to result in greater immune control of HIV than mediated by either single allele alone. We here investigate the extent to which HLA alleles - irrespective of linkage disequilibrium - function co-operatively. Methodology/Principal Findings: We here refined a computational approach to the analysis of >2000 subjects infected with C-clade HIV first to discern the individual effect of each allele on disease control, and second to identify pairs of alleles that mediate ‘co-operative additive’ effects, either to improve disease suppression or to contribute to immunological failure. We identified six pairs of HLA class I alleles that have a co-operative additive effect in mediating HIV disease control and four hazardous pairs of alleles that, occurring together, are predictive of worse disease outcomes (q<0.05 in each case). We developed a novel ‘sharing score’ to quantify the breadth of CD8+ T cell responses made by pairs of HLA alleles across the HIV proteome, and used this to demonstrate that successful viraemic suppression correlates with breadth of unique CD8+ T cell responses (p = 0.03). Conclusions/Significance: These results identify co-operative effects between HLA Class I alleles in the control of HIV-1 in an extended Southern African cohort, and underline complementarity and breadth of the CD8+ T cell targeting as one potential mechanism for this effect

First-principles theory of ferroelectric phase transitions for perovskites: The case of BaTiO3

We carry out a completely first-principles study of the ferroelectric phase transitions in BaTiO$_3$. Our approach takes advantage of two features of these transitions: the structural changes are small, and only low-energy distortions are important. Based on these observations, we make systematically improvable approximations which enable the parameterization of the complicated energy surface. The parameters are determined from first-principles total-energy calculations using ultra-soft pseudopotentials and a preconditioned conjugate-gradient scheme. The resulting effective Hamiltonian is then solved by Monte Carlo simulation. The calculated phase sequence, transition temperatures, latent heats, and spontaneous polarizations are all in good agreement with experiment. We find the transitions to be intermediate between order-disorder and displacive character. We find all three phase transitions to be of first order. The roles of different interactions are discussed.Comment: 33 pages latex file, 9 figure

Physics, Astrophysics and Cosmology with Gravitational Waves

Gravitational wave detectors are already operating at interesting sensitivity levels, and they have an upgrade path that should result in secure detections by 2014. We review the physics of gravitational waves, how they interact with detectors (bars and interferometers), and how these detectors operate. We study the most likely sources of gravitational waves and review the data analysis methods that are used to extract their signals from detector noise. Then we consider the consequences of gravitational wave detections and observations for physics, astrophysics, and cosmology.Comment: 137 pages, 16 figures, Published version <http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2009-2

Evaluation of single-footprint AIRS CH4 profile retrieval uncertainties using aircraft profile measurements

We evaluate the uncertainties of methane optimal estimation retrievals from single-footprint thermal infrared observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). These retrievals are primarily sensitive to atmospheric methane in the mid-troposphere through the lower stratosphere (&sim;2 to &sim;17&thinsp;km). We compare them to in situ observations made from aircraft during the HIAPER Pole to Pole Observations (HIPPO) and Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) campaigns, and from the NOAA GML aircraft network, between the surface and 5&ndash;13&thinsp;km, across a range of years, latitudes between 60∘&thinsp;S to 80∘&thinsp;N, and over land and ocean. After a global, pressure-dependent bias correction, we find that the land and ocean have similar biases and that the reported observation error (combined measurement and interference errors) of &sim;27&thinsp;ppb is consistent with the SD between aircraft and individual AIRS observations. A single observation has measurement (noise related) uncertainty of &sim;17&thinsp;ppb, a &sim;20&thinsp;ppb uncertainty from radiative interferences (e.g., from water or temperature), and &sim;30&thinsp;ppb due to &ldquo;smoothing error&rdquo;, which is partially removed when making comparisons to in situ measurements or models in a way that accounts for this regularization. We estimate a 10&thinsp;ppb validation uncertainty because the aircraft typically did not measure methane at altitudes where the AIRS measurements have some sensitivity, e.g., the stratosphere, and there is uncertainty in the truth that we validate against. Daily averaging only partly reduces the difference between aircraft and satellite observation, likely because of correlated errors introduced into the retrieval from temperature and water vapor. For example, averaging nine observations only reduces the aircraft&ndash;model difference to &sim;17&thinsp;ppb vs. the expected &sim;10&thinsp;ppb. Seasonal averages can reduce this &sim;17&thinsp;ppb uncertainty further to &sim;10&thinsp;ppb, as determined through comparison with NOAA aircraft, likely because uncertainties related to radiative effects of temperature and water vapor are reduced when averaged over a season. &nbsp;</p

New genetic loci implicated in fasting glucose homeostasis and their impact on type 2 diabetes risk.

Levels of circulating glucose are tightly regulated. To identify new loci influencing glycemic traits, we performed meta-analyses of 21 genome-wide association studies informative for fasting glucose, fasting insulin and indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-B) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in up to 46,186 nondiabetic participants. Follow-up of 25 loci in up to 76,558 additional subjects identified 16 loci associated with fasting glucose and HOMA-B and two loci associated with fasting insulin and HOMA-IR. These include nine loci newly associated with fasting glucose (in or near ADCY5, MADD, ADRA2A, CRY2, FADS1, GLIS3, SLC2A2, PROX1 and C2CD4B) and one influencing fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (near IGF1). We also demonstrated association of ADCY5, PROX1, GCK, GCKR and DGKB-TMEM195 with type 2 diabetes. Within these loci, likely biological candidate genes influence signal transduction, cell proliferation, development, glucose-sensing and circadian regulation. Our results demonstrate that genetic studies of glycemic traits can identify type 2 diabetes risk loci, as well as loci containing gene variants that are associated with a modest elevation in glucose levels but are not associated with overt diabetes

Defects and lithium migration in Li₂CuO₂

Li2CuO2 is an important candidate material as a cathode in lithium ion batteries. Atomistic simulation methods are used to investigate the defect processes, electronic structure and lithium migration mechanisms in Li2CuO2. Here we show that the lithium energy of migration via the vacancy mechanism is very low, at 0.11 eV. The high lithium Frenkel energy (1.88 eV/defect) prompted the consideration of defect engineering strategies in order to increase the concentration of lithium vacancies that act as vehicles for the vacancy mediated lithium self-diffusion in Li2CuO2. It is shown that aluminium doping will significantly reduce the energy required to form a lithium vacancy from 1.88 eV to 0.97 eV for every aluminium introduced, however, it will also increase the migration energy barrier of lithium in the vicinity of the aluminium dopant to 0.22 eV. Still, the introduction of aluminium is favourable compared to the lithium Frenkel process. Other trivalent dopants considered herein require significantly higher solution energies, whereas their impact on the migration energy barrier was more pronounced. When considering the electronic structure of defective Li2CuO2, the presence of aluminium dopants results in the introduction of electronic states into the energy band gap. Therefore, doping with aluminium is an effective doping strategy to increase the concentration of lithium vacancies, with a minimal impact on the kinetics

Sleep quality, the neglected outcome variable in clinical studies focusing on locomotor system; a construct validation study

Background: In addition to general health and pain, sleep is highly relevant to judging the well-being of an individual. Of these three important outcome variables, however, sleep is neglected in most outcome studies. Sleep is a very important resource for recovery from daily stresses and strains, and any alteration of sleep will likely affect mental and physical health, especially during disease. Sleep assessment therefore should be standard in all population-based or clinical studies focusing on the locomotor system. Yet current sleep assessment tools are either too long or too specific for general use. Methods: Based on a literature review and subsequent patient-based rating of items, an expert panel designed a four-item questionnaire about sleep. Construct validation of the questionnaire in a random sample of the German-speaking Swiss population was performed in 2003. Reliability, correlation, and tests for internal consistency and validity were analyzed. Results: Overall, 16,634 (70%) out of 23,763 eligible individuals participated in the study. Test-retest reliability coefficients ranged from 0.72 to 0.87, and a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.83 indicates good internal consistency. Results show a moderate to good correlation between sleep disturbances and health perception, and between sleep disturbances and overall pain. Conclusions: The Sleep Standard Evaluation Questionnaire (SEQ-Sleep) is a reliable and short tool with confirmed construct validity for sleep assessment in population-based observational studies. It is easy to administer and therefore suitable for postal surveys of the general population. Criterion validity remains to be determined