Dietary metabolite profiling brings new insight into the relationship between nutrition and metabolic risk: An IMI Direct study

Background: Dietary advice remains the cornerstone of prevention and management of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, understanding the efficacy of dietary interventions is confounded by the challenges inherent in assessing free living diet. Here we profiled dietary metabolites to investigate glycaemic deterioration and cardiometabolic risk in people at risk of or living with T2D. Methods: We analysed data from plasma collected at baseline and 18-month follow-up in individuals from the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (DIRECT) cohort 1 n=403 individuals with normal or impaired glucose regulation (prediabetic) and cohort 2 n=458 individuals with new onset of T2D. A dietary metabolite profile model (Tpred) was constructed using multivariate regression of 113 plasma metabolites obtained from targeted metabolomics assays. The continuous Tpred score was used to explore the relationships between diet, glycaemic deterioration and cardio-metabolic risk via multiple linear regression models. Findings: A higher Tpred was associated with healthier diets high in wholegrain (β=0.004 g, p=0.02 and β=0.003 g, p=0.03) and lower energy intake (β=-0.0002 kcal, p=0.04 and β=-0.0002 kcal, p=0.003), and saturated fat (β=-0.03 g, p<.0001 and β=-0.03 g, p<.0001), respectively for cohort 1 and 2. In both cohorts a higher Tpred score was also associated with lower total body adiposity and improved lipid profiles HDL-cholesterol (β=0.07 mmol/L, p<.0001), (β=0.08 mmol/L, p=0.0002), and triglycerides (β=-0.1 mmol/L, p=0.003), (β=-0.2 mmol/L, p=0.0002), respectively for cohort 1 and 2. In cohort 2, the Tpred score was negatively associated with liver fat content (β=-0.74 %, p<.0001), and lower fasting concentrations of HbA1c (β=-0.9mmol/mol, p=0.02), glucose (β=-0.2 mmol/L, p=0.01) and insulin (β=-11.0 pmol/mol, p=0.01). Longitudinal analysis showed at 18-month follow up a higher Tpred score was also associated lower total body adiposity in both cohorts and lower fasting glucose (β=-0.2 mmol/L, p=0.03) and insulin (β=-9.2 pmol/mol, p=0.04) concentrations in cohort 2. Interpretation: Plasma dietary metabolite profiling provides objective measures of diet intake, showing a relationship to glycaemic deterioration and cardiometabolic health

Performing meta-analysis with incomplete statistical information in clinical trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Results from clinical trials are usually summarized in the form of sampling distributions. When full information (mean, SEM) about these distributions is given, performing meta-analysis is straightforward. However, when some of the sampling distributions only have mean values, a challenging issue is to decide how to use such distributions in meta-analysis. Currently, the most common approaches are either ignoring such trials or for each trial with a missing SEM, finding a similar trial and taking its SEM value as the missing SEM. Both approaches have drawbacks. As an alternative, this paper develops and tests two new methods, the first being the prognostic method and the second being the interval method, to estimate any missing SEMs from a set of sampling distributions with full information. A merging method is also proposed to handle clinical trials with partial information to simulate meta-analysis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Both of our methods use the assumption that the samples for which the sampling distributions will be merged are randomly selected from the same population. In the prognostic method, we predict the missing SEMs from the given SEMs. In the interval method, we define intervals that we believe will contain the missing SEMs and then we use these intervals in the merging process.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two sets of clinical trials are used to verify our methods. One family of trials is on comparing different drugs for reduction of low density lipprotein cholesterol (LDL) for Type-2 diabetes, and the other is about the effectiveness of drugs for lowering intraocular pressure (IOP). Both methods are shown to be useful for approximating the conventional meta-analysis including trials with incomplete information. For example, the meta-analysis result of Latanoprost versus Timolol on IOP reduction for six months provided in <abbrgrp><abbr bid="B1">1</abbr></abbrgrp> was 5.05 ± 1.15 (Mean ± SEM) with full information. If the last trial in this study is assumed to be with partial information, the traditional analysis method for dealing with incomplete information that ignores this trial would give 6.49 ± 1.36 while our prognostic method gives 5.02 ± 1.15, and our interval method provides two intervals as Mean ∈ [4.25, 5.63] and SEM ∈ [1.01, 1.24].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Both the prognostic and the interval methods are useful alternatives for dealing with missing data in meta-analysis. We recommend clinicians to use the prognostic method to predict the missing SEMs in order to perform meta-analysis and the interval method for obtaining a more cautious result.</p

Post-load glucose subgroups and associated metabolic traits in individuals with type 2 diabetes:An IMI-DIRECT study

AIM: Subclasses of different glycaemic disturbances could explain the variation in characteristics of individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to examine the association between subgroups based on their glucose curves during a five-point mixed-meal tolerance test (MMT) and metabolic traits at baseline and glycaemic deterioration in individuals with T2D. METHODS: The study included 787 individuals with newly diagnosed T2D from the Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (IMI-DIRECT) Study. Latent class trajectory analysis (LCTA) was used to identify distinct glucose curve subgroups during a five-point MMT. Using general linear models, these subgroups were associated with metabolic traits at baseline and after 18 months of follow up, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: At baseline, we identified three glucose curve subgroups, labelled in order of increasing glucose peak levels as subgroup 1-3. Individuals in subgroup 2 and 3 were more likely to have higher levels of HbA1c, triglycerides and BMI at baseline, compared to those in subgroup 1. At 18 months (n = 651), the beta coefficients (95% CI) for change in HbA1c (mmol/mol) increased across subgroups with 0.37 (-0.18-1.92) for subgroup 2 and 1.88 (-0.08-3.85) for subgroup 3, relative to subgroup 1. The same trend was observed for change in levels of triglycerides and fasting glucose. CONCLUSIONS: Different glycaemic profiles with different metabolic traits and different degrees of subsequent glycaemic deterioration can be identified using data from a frequently sampled mixed-meal tolerance test in individuals with T2D. Subgroups with the highest peaks had greater metabolic risk

Profiles of glucose metabolism in different prediabetes phenotypes, classified by fasting glycemia, 2-hour OGTT, glycated hemoglobin, and 1-hour OGTT:An IMI DIRECT study

Differences in glucose metabolism among categories of prediabetes have not been systematically investigated. In this longitudinal study, participants (N = 2,111) underwent a 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline and 48 months. HbA1c was also measured. We classified participants as having isolated prediabetes defect (impaired fasting glucose [IFG], impaired glucose tolerance [IGT], or HbA1c indicative of prediabetes [IA1c]), two defects (IFG+IGT, IFG+IA1c, or IGT+IA1c), or all defects (IFG+IGT+IA1c). β-Cell function (BCF) and insulin sensitivity were assessed from OGTT. At baseline, in pooling of participants with isolated defects, they showed impairment in both BCF and insulin sensitivity compared with healthy control subjects. Pooled groups with two or three defects showed progressive further deterioration. Among groups with isolated defect, those with IGT showed lower insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion at reference glucose (ISRr), and insulin secretion potentiation (P &lt; 0.002). Conversely, those with IA1c showed higher insulin sensitivity and ISRr (P &lt; 0.0001). Among groups with two defects, we similarly found differences in both BCF and insulin sensitivity. At 48 months, we found higher type 2 diabetes incidence for progressively increasing number of prediabetes defects (odds ratio &gt;2, P &lt; 0.008). In conclusion, the prediabetes groups showed differences in type/degree of glucometabolic impairment. Compared with the pooled group with isolated defects, those with double or triple defect showed progressive differences in diabetes incidence.</p

Predicting and elucidating the etiology of fatty liver disease : A machine learning modeling and validation study in the IMI DIRECT cohorts

Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is highly prevalent and causes serious health complications in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). Early diagnosis of NAFLD is important, as this can help prevent irreversible damage to the liver and, ultimately, hepatocellular carcinomas. We sought to expand etiological understanding and develop a diagnostic tool for NAFLD using machine learning. Methods and findings We utilized the baseline data from IMI DIRECT, a multicenter prospective cohort study of 3,029 European-ancestry adults recently diagnosed with T2D (n= 795) or at high risk of developing the disease (n= 2,234). Multi-omics (genetic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic) and clinical (liver enzymes and other serological biomarkers, anthropometry, measures of beta-cell function, insulin sensitivity, and lifestyle) data comprised the key input variables. The models were trained on MRI-image-derived liver fat content (= 5%) available for 1,514 participants. We applied LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) to select features from the different layers of omics data and random forest analysis to develop the models. The prediction models included clinical and omics variables separately or in combination. A model including all omics and clinical variables yielded a cross-validated receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROCAUC) of 0.84 (95% CI 0.82, 0.86;p = 5%) rather than a continuous one. Conclusions In this study, we developed several models with different combinations of clinical and omics data and identified biological features that appear to be associated with liver fat accumulation. In general, the clinical variables showed better prediction ability than the complex omics variables. However, the combination of omics and clinical variables yielded the highest accuracy. We have incorporated the developed clinical models into a web interface (see:) and made it available to the community.Peer reviewe

Four groups of type 2 diabetes contribute to the etiological and clinical heterogeneity in newly diagnosed individuals: An IMI DIRECT study

The presentation and underlying pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is complex and heterogeneous. Recent studies attempted to stratify T2D into distinct subgroups using data-driven approaches, but their clinical utility may be limited if categorical representations of complex phenotypes are suboptimal. We apply a soft-clustering (archetype) method to characterize newly diagnosed T2D based on 32 clinical variables. We assign quantitative clustering scores for individuals and investigate the associations with glycemic deterioration, genetic risk scores, circulating omics biomarkers, and phenotypic stability over 36 months. Four archetype profiles represent dysfunction patterns across combinations of T2D etiological processes and correlate with multiple circulating biomarkers. One archetype associated with obesity, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, and impaired β cell glucose sensitivity corresponds with the fastest disease progression and highest demand for anti-diabetic treatment. We demonstrate that clinical heterogeneity in T2D can be mapped to heterogeneity in individual etiological processes, providing a potential route to personalized treatments

Four groups of type 2 diabetes contribute to the etiological and clinical heterogeneity in newly diagnosed individuals: An IMI DIRECT study

The presentation and underlying pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is complex and heterogeneous. Recent studies attempted to stratify T2D into distinct subgroups using data-driven approaches, but their clinical utility may be limited if categorical representations of complex phenotypes are suboptimal. We apply a soft-clustering (archetype) method to characterize newly diagnosed T2D based on 32 clinical variables. We assign quantitative clustering scores for individuals and investigate the associations with glycemic deterioration, genetic risk scores, circulating omics biomarkers, and phenotypic stability over 36 months. Four archetype profiles represent dysfunction patterns across combinations of T2D etiological processes and correlate with multiple circulating biomarkers. One archetype associated with obesity, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, and impaired β cell glucose sensitivity corresponds with the fastest disease progression and highest demand for anti-diabetic treatment. We demonstrate that clinical heterogeneity in T2D can be mapped to heterogeneity in individual etiological processes, providing a potential route to personalized treatments

Processes Underlying Glycemic Deterioration in Type 2 Diabetes: An IMI DIRECT Study

Objective We investigated the processes underlying glycemic deterioration in type 2 diabetes (T2D). Research Design and Methods 732 recently diagnosed T2D patients from the IMI-DIRECT study were extensively phenotyped over three years, including measures of insulin sensitivity (OGIS), β-cell glucose sensitivity (GS) and insulin clearance (CLIm) from mixed meal tests, liver enzymes, lipid profiles, and baseline regional fat from MRI. The associations between the longitudinal metabolic patterns and HbA1c deterioration, adjusted for changes in BMI and in diabetes medications, were assessed via stepwise multivariable linear and logistic regression. Results Faster HbA1c progression was independently associated with faster deterioration of OGIS and GS, and increasing CLIm; visceral or liver fat, HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides had further independent, though weaker, roles (R2=0.38). A subgroup of patients with a markedly higher progression rate (fast progressors) was clearly distinguishable considering these variables only (discrimination capacity from AUROC=0.94). The proportion of fast progressors was reduced from 56% to 8-10% in subgroups in which only one trait among OGIS, GS and CLIm was relatively stable (odds ratios 0.07 to 0.09). T2D polygenic risk score and baseline pancreatic fat, GLP-1, glucagon, diet, and physical activity did not show an independent role. Conclusions Deteriorating insulin sensitivity and β-cell function, increasing insulin clearance, high visceral or liver fat, and worsening of the lipid profile are the crucial factors mediating glycemic deterioration of T2D patients in the initial phase of the disease. Stabilization of a single trait among insulin sensitivity, β-cell function, and insulin clearance may be relevant to prevent progression

Clinical profiles of post-load glucose subgroups and their association with glycaemic traits over time: an IMI-DIRECT study

Aim To examine the hypothesis that, based on their glucose curves during a seven-point oral glucose tolerance test, people at elevated type 2 diabetes risk can be divided into subgroups with different clinical profiles at baseline and different degrees of subsequent glycaemic deterioration.Methods We included 2126 participants at elevated type 2 diabetes risk from the Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (IMI-DIRECT) study. Latent class trajectory analysis was used to identify subgroups from a seven-point oral glucose tolerance test at baseline and follow-up. Linear models quantified the associations between the subgroups with glycaemic traits at baseline and 18 months.Results At baseline, we identified four glucose curve subgroups, labelled in order of increasing peak levels as 1-4. Participants in Subgroups 2-4, were more likely to have higher insulin resistance (homeostatic model assessment) and a lower Matsuda index, than those in Subgroup 1. Overall, participants in Subgroups 3 and 4, had higher glycaemic trait values, with the exception of the Matsuda and insulinogenic indices. At 18 months, change in homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance was higher in Subgroup 4 (beta = 0.36, 95% CI 0.13-0.58), Subgroup 3 (beta = 0.30; 95% CI 0.10-0.50) and Subgroup 2 (beta = 0.18; 95% CI 0.04-0.32), compared to Subgroup 1. The same was observed for C-peptide and insulin. Five subgroups were identified at follow-up, and the majority of participants remained in the same subgroup or progressed to higher peak subgroups after 18 months.Conclusions Using data from a frequently sampled oral glucose tolerance test, glucose curve patterns associated with different clinical characteristics and different rates of subsequent glycaemic deterioration can be identified.Molecular Epidemiolog