Estimating credit and profit scoring of a Brazilian credit union with logistic regression and machine-learning techniques

Purpose – Although credit unions are nonprofit organizations, their objectives depend on the efficient management of their resources and credit risk aligned with the principles of the cooperative doctrine. This paper aims to propose the combined use of credit scoring and profit scoring to increase the effectiveness of the loan-granting process in credit unions. Design/methodology/approach – This sample is composed by the data of personal loans transactions of a Brazilian credit union. Findings – The analysis reveals that the use of statistical methods improves significantly the predictability of default when compared to the use of subjective techniques and the superiority of the random forests model in estimating credit scoring and profit scoring when compared to logit and ordinary least squares method (OLS) regression. The study also illustrates how both analyses can be used jointly for more effective decision-making. Originality/value – Replacing subjective analysis with objective credit analysis using deterministic models will benefit Brazilian credit unions. The credit decision will be based on the input variables and on clear criteria, turning the decision-making process impartial. The joint use of credit scoring and profit scoring allows granting credit for the clients with the highest potential to pay debt obligation and, at the same time, to certify that the transaction profitability meets the goals of the organization: to be sustainable and to provide loans and investment opportunities at attractive rates to members

Aspectos espaciais, sociodemográficos, clínicos e temporais da esquistossomose no estado de Minas Gerais entre os anos de 2011 e 2020 / Spatial, socio-demographic, clinical and temporal aspects of schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais between the years of 2011 and 2020

A esquistossomose mansoni é causada pelo helminto S.mansoni e configura-se como um importante problema de saúde pública. Entre as formas clínicas, ressalta-se a hepatoesplênica, na qual há formação de fibrose periportal, podendo culminar em hipertensão portal, insuficiência hepática e óbito. Diante da possibilidade de quadros graves, justifica-se a relevância de estudos epidemiológicos em áreas endêmicas, posto que essas pesquisas viabilizam o direcionamento de intervenções. Assim, o objetivo do presente trabalho consiste em caracterizar aspectos espaciais, sociodemográficos, clínicos, e temporais da esquistossomose em Minas Gerais, entre os anos de 2011 e 2020. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico com dados secundários de domínio público, disponíveis no Portal de Vigilância da Secretaria de Estado de Saúde de Minas Gerais. Totalizaram-se 37.535 casos, dos quais 159 evoluíram para óbito (letalidade de 0,4%). Houve destaque para as macrorregiões Vale do Aço (n=10.438; 27,8), Nordeste (n=8.327; 22,2%) e Centro (n=5.928; 15,7%); e para os municípios de Belo Horizonte (n=3.148; 8,3%), Inhapim (n=2.026; 5,3%) e Ipatinga (n=1.710; 4,5%). Quanto às características sociodemográficas, frisa-se sexo masculino (n=23722; 63,2%); faixa etária 25 a 34 anos (n=7025; 18,7%); escolaridade 5a a 8 série do ensino fundamental incompleta (n=5139; 13,7%); e raça/cor parda (n=18312; 48,8%). No contexto clínico, a forma hepatointestinal foi predominante entre homes (n=11.676; 49,2%), mulheres (n=6.914; 50,1%) e todos (n=18.591; 49,5%). A forma hepatoesplênica ocorreu em maior frequência no sexo masculino (n=524; 2,2%) comparando-se ao feminino (n=214; 1,5%). Com relação ao desfecho, frisa-se a evolução para cura entre pacientes do sexo masculino (n=17.460; 73,6%), feminino (n=10.460; 75,8%) e todos (n=27.923; 74,4%). Indivíduos do sexo masculino apresentam 1,4 vezes mais chances de desenvolver a forma hepatoesplênica (95%IC=1,2-1,6; p<0,0001); e 1,5 vezes mais chances de óbito por esquistossomose (95%IC=1,06-2,21; p=0,0198). Englobando a análise temporal, o maior número de notificações foi em 2011 (n=11.777; 31,3%), com redução expressiva até o ano de 2020 (n=1.050; 2,7%). Algo semelhante foi percebido nos coeficientes de incidência (CI) com 58 acometidos para cada 100.000 habitantes em 2011; e queda para 5 acometidos para cada 100.000 habitantes em 2020. Houve correlação entre o passar anos e queda nos CI (r2=0,6392; p=0,0055). Portanto, para a manutenção da redução da incidência e com o intuito de evitar quadros letais, ressalta-se a importância da implementação de intervenções majoritariamente nas macrorregiões de destaque e entre indivíduos que se encaixam no perfil encontrado: homens, adultos jovens, baixo nível de escolaridade, principalmente em áreas endêmicas

Design and baseline characteristics of the finerenone in reducing cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in diabetic kidney disease trial

Background: Among people with diabetes, those with kidney disease have exceptionally high rates of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality and progression of their underlying kidney disease. Finerenone is a novel, nonsteroidal, selective mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist that has shown to reduce albuminuria in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) while revealing only a low risk of hyperkalemia. However, the effect of finerenone on CV and renal outcomes has not yet been investigated in long-term trials. Patients and Methods: The Finerenone in Reducing CV Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease (FIGARO-DKD) trial aims to assess the efficacy and safety of finerenone compared to placebo at reducing clinically important CV and renal outcomes in T2D patients with CKD. FIGARO-DKD is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, event-driven trial running in 47 countries with an expected duration of approximately 6 years. FIGARO-DKD randomized 7,437 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate >= 25 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and albuminuria (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio >= 30 to <= 5,000 mg/g). The study has at least 90% power to detect a 20% reduction in the risk of the primary outcome (overall two-sided significance level alpha = 0.05), the composite of time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure. Conclusions: FIGARO-DKD will determine whether an optimally treated cohort of T2D patients with CKD at high risk of CV and renal events will experience cardiorenal benefits with the addition of finerenone to their treatment regimen. Trial Registration: EudraCT number: 2015-000950-39; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02545049

NEOTROPICAL XENARTHRANS: a data set of occurrence of xenarthran species in the Neotropics

Xenarthrans—anteaters, sloths, and armadillos—have essential functions for ecosystem maintenance, such as insect control and nutrient cycling, playing key roles as ecosystem engineers. Because of habitat loss and fragmentation, hunting pressure, and conflicts with domestic dogs, these species have been threatened locally, regionally, or even across their full distribution ranges. The Neotropics harbor 21 species of armadillos, 10 anteaters, and 6 sloths. Our data set includes the families Chlamyphoridae (13), Dasypodidae (7), Myrmecophagidae (3), Bradypodidae (4), and Megalonychidae (2). We have no occurrence data on Dasypus pilosus (Dasypodidae). Regarding Cyclopedidae, until recently, only one species was recognized, but new genetic studies have revealed that the group is represented by seven species. In this data paper, we compiled a total of 42,528 records of 31 species, represented by occurrence and quantitative data, totaling 24,847 unique georeferenced records. The geographic range is from the southern United States, Mexico, and Caribbean countries at the northern portion of the Neotropics, to the austral distribution in Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, and Uruguay. Regarding anteaters, Myrmecophaga tridactyla has the most records (n = 5,941), and Cyclopes sp. have the fewest (n = 240). The armadillo species with the most data is Dasypus novemcinctus (n = 11,588), and the fewest data are recorded for Calyptophractus retusus (n = 33). With regard to sloth species, Bradypus variegatus has the most records (n = 962), and Bradypus pygmaeus has the fewest (n = 12). Our main objective with Neotropical Xenarthrans is to make occurrence and quantitative data available to facilitate more ecological research, particularly if we integrate the xenarthran data with other data sets of Neotropical Series that will become available very soon (i.e., Neotropical Carnivores, Neotropical Invasive Mammals, and Neotropical Hunters and Dogs). Therefore, studies on trophic cascades, hunting pressure, habitat loss, fragmentation effects, species invasion, and climate change effects will be possible with the Neotropical Xenarthrans data set. Please cite this data paper when using its data in publications. We also request that researchers and teachers inform us of how they are using these data