Probabilities of Large Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

In 1987 a Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities was organized by the U.S. Geological Survey at the recommendation of the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC). The membership included representatives from private industry, academia, and the U.S. Geological Survey. The Working Group computed long-term probabilities of earthquakes along the major faults of the San Andreas fault system on the basis of consensus interpretations of information then available. Faults considered by the Working Group included the San Andreas fault proper, the San Jacinto and Imperial-faults of southern California, and the Hayward fault of northern California. The Working Group issued a final report of its findings in 1988 (Working Group, 1988) that was reviewed and endorsed by NEPEC. As a consequence of the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 17, 1989, a second Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities was organized under the auspices of NEPEC. Its charge was to review and, as necessary, revise the findings of the 1988 report on the probability of large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region. In particular, the Working Group was requested to examine the probabilities of large earthquakes in the context of new interpretations or physical changes resulting from the Loma Prieta earthquake. In addition, it was to consider new information pertaining to the San Andreas and other faults in the region obtained subsequent to the release of the 1988 report. Insofar as modified techniques and improved data have been used in this study, the same approach might also, of course, modify the probabilities for southern California. This reevaluation has, however, been specifically limited to the San Francisco Bay region. This report is intended to summarize the collective knowledge and judgments of a diverse group of earthquake scientists to assist in formulation of rational earthquake policies. A considerable body of information about active faults in the San Francisco Bay region leads to the conclusion that major earthquakes are likely within the next tens of years. Several techniques can be used to compute probabilities of future earthquakes, although there are uncertainties about the validity of specific assumptions or models that must be made when applying these techniques. The body of this report describes the data and detailed assumptions that lead to specific probabilities for different fault segments. Additional data and future advances in our understanding of earthquake physics may alter the way that these probabilities are estimated. Even though this uncertainty must be acknowledged, we emphasize that the findings of this report are supported by other lines of argument and are consistent with our best understanding of the likelihood for the occurrence of earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region

Sexually transmitted infection screening, prevalence and incidence among South African men and transgender women who have sex with men enrolled in a combination HIV prevention cohort study : the Sibanye Methods for Prevention Packages Programme (MP3) project

INTRODUCTION : Men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) experience high incidence and prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STI), and data are needed to understand risk factors for STIs in these populations. The Sibanye Health Project was conducted in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth, South Africa from 2015 to 2016 to develop and test a package of HIV prevention interventions for MSM and TGW. We describe the incidence, prevalence and symptoms of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhea (NG) and syphilis observed during the study. METHODS : Participants completed HIV testing at baseline. All participants who were HIV negative were followed prospectively. Additionally, a sample of participants identified as living with HIV at baseline was selected to be followed prospectively so that the prospective cohort was approximately 20% HIV positive; the remaining participants identified as HIV positive at baseline were not followed prospectively. Prospective participants were followed for 12 months and returned for clinic-based STI/HIV testing and assessment of STI symptoms at months 6 and 12. Additional HIV/STI testing visits could be scheduled at participant request. RESULTS : Following consent, a total of 292 participants attended a baseline visit (mean age = 26 years), and 201 were enrolled for the 12-month prospective study. Acceptance of screening for syphilis and urethral NG/CT was near universal, though acceptance of screening for rectal NG/CT was lower (194/292; 66%). Prevalence of urethral CT and NG at baseline was 10% (29/289) and 3% (8/288) respectively; incidence of urethral CT and NG was 12.8/100 person-years (PY) and 7.1/100 PY respectively. Prevalence of rectal CT and NG at baseline was 25% (47/189) and 16% (30/189) respectively; incidence of rectal CT and NG was 33.4/100 PY and 26.8/100 PY respectively. Prevalence of syphilis at baseline was 17% (45/258) and incidence was 8.2/100 PY. 91%, 95% and 97% of diagnosed rectal NG/CT, urethral NG/CT and syphilis infections, respectively, were clinically asymptomatic. CONCLUSIONS : Prevalence and incidence of urethral and rectal STIs were high among these South African MSM and TGW, and were similar to rates in other settings in the world. Clinical symptoms from these infections were rare, highlighting limitations of syndromic surveillance and suggesting the need for presumptive testing and/or treatment to address the STI epidemic among MSM/TGW in South Africa.Table S1. Acceptance of urethral and syphilis STI screening at baseline and over 12 months of follow-up among men who have sex with men and transgender women in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth, South Africa.Table S2. Rate (per 100 person years), unadjusted rate ratios (RR), and 95% confidence intervals of urethral and rectal chlamydia, urethral and rectal gonorrhea, and syphilis among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth, South Africa.The National Institutes of Healthhttp://www.jiasociety.orgam2021School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH

Taxonomy of the family Arenaviridae and the order Bunyavirales : update 2018

In 2018, the family Arenaviridae was expanded by inclusion of 1 new genus and 5 novel species. At the same time, the recently established order Bunyavirales was expanded by 3 species. This article presents the updated taxonomy of the family Arenaviridae and the order Bunyavirales as now accepted by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) and summarizes additional taxonomic proposals that may affect the order in the near future.Peer reviewe

Seeding Science, Courting Conclusions: Reexamining the Intersection of Science, Corporate Cash, and the Law

Social scientists have expressed strong views on corporate influences over science, but most attention has been devoted to broad, Black/White arguments, rather than to actual mechanisms of influence. This paper summarizes an experience where involvement in a lawsuit led to the discovery of an unexpected mechanism: A large corporation facing a multibillion-dollar court judgment quietly provided generous funding to well-known scientists (including at least one Nobel prize winner) who would submit articles to "open," peer-reviewed journals, so that their "unbiased science" could be cited in an appeal to the Supreme Court. On balance, the corporation's most effective techniques of influence may have been provided not by overt pressure, but by encouraging scientists to continue thinking of themselves as independent and impartial

HIV prevalence and incidence in a cohort of South African men and transgender women who have sex with men: the Sibanye methods for prevention packages programme (MP3) project

INTRODUCTION: Men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) are at increased risk for acquiring HIV, but there are limited HIV incidence data for these key populations in Africa. Understanding HIV prevalence and incidence provides important context for designing HIV prevention strategies, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programmes. We describe HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV infection, HIV incidence and associated factors for a cohort of MSM and TGW in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth, South Africa. METHODS: From 2015 to 2016, MSM and TGW in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth were enrolled and prospectively followed for 12 months, receiving a comprehensive package of HIV prevention services. HIV testing was conducted at baseline and at follow-up visits (targeted for three, six and twelve months). All HIV-negative PrEP-eligible participants were offered PrEP enrolment during the first four months of study participation. We determined HIV prevalence among participants at baseline, and incidence by repeat screening of initially HIV-negative participants with HIV tests at three, six and twelve months. RESULTS: Among 292 participants enrolled, HIV prevalence was high (43%; 95% CI: 38 to 49) and awareness of HIV status was low (50%). The 167 HIV-negative participants who were followed prospectively for 144.7 person-years; nine incident HIV infections were documented. Overall annual incidence was 6.2% (CI: 2.8 to 11.8) and did not differ by city. Annual HIV incidence was significantly higher for younger (18 to 19 years) MSM and TGW (MSM: 21.8% (CI: 1.2 to 100); TGW: 31.0 (CI: 3.7, 111.2)). About half of participants started PrEP during the study; the annual incidence of HIV among 82 (49%) PrEP starters was 3.6% (CI: 0.4, 13.1) and among those who did not start PrEP was 7.8% (CI: 3.1, 16.1). CONCLUSIONS: HIV incidence was high among MSM and TGW in the context of receiving a comprehensive package of prevention interventions and offering of PrEP. PrEP uptake was high; the observed incidence of HIV in those who started PrEP was about half the incidence of HIV in those who did not. Future implementation-oriented studies should focus on decisions to start and continue PrEP for those at highest risk, including young MSM.Center for AIDS Research at Emory University and National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/17582652pm2021School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH

Genetic Association of the R620W Polymorphism of Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase PTPN22 with Human SLE

We genotyped 525 independent North American white individuals with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) for the PTPN22 R620W polymorphism and compared the results with data generated from 1,961 white control individuals. The R620W SNP was associated with SLE (genotypic P=.00009), with estimated minor (T) allele frequencies of 12.67% in SLE cases and 8.64% in controls. A single copy of the T allele (W620) increases risk of SLE (odds ratio [OR]=1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07–1.75), and two copies of the allele more than double this risk (OR=4.37; 95% CI 1.98–9.65). Together with recent evidence showing association of this SNP with type 1 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis, these data provide compelling evidence that PTPN22 plays a fundamental role in regulating the immune system and the development of autoimmunity