Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India

Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security. In this paper, we focus on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and we employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level (~ 18 × 18 km cell resolution) under projected future (2050) climate change (IPCC RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, using three GCMs: BCC-CSM1.1, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and HadGEM2-ES). We quantify the occurrence of rice (whether or not rainfed rice is commonly grown, using CEMs) and rice extent (area under cultivation, using BRTs) during the summer monsoon in relation to four climate variables that affect rice growth and yield namely ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration (PER), maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin), and total rainfall during harvesting. Our models described the occurrence and extent of rice very well (CEMs for occurrence, ensemble AUC = 0.92; BRTs for extent, Pearson's r = 0.87). PER was the most important predictor of rainfed rice occurrence, and it was positively related to rainfed rice area, but all four climate variables were important for determining the extent of rice cultivation. Our models project that 15%–40% of current rainfed rice growing areas will be at risk (i.e. decline in climate suitability or become completely unsuitable). However, our models project considerable variation across India in the impact of future climate change: eastern and northern India are the locations most at risk, but parts of central and western India may benefit from increased precipitation. Hence our CEM and BRT models agree on the locations most at risk, but there is less consensus about the degree of risk at these locations. Our results help to identify locations where livelihoods of low-income farmers and regional food security may be threatened in the next few decades by climate changes. The use of more drought-resilient rice varieties and better irrigation infrastructure in these regions may help to reduce these impacts and reduce the vulnerability of farmers dependent on rainfed cropping

Particulate matter pollution in an informal settlement in Nairobi : using citizen science to make the invisible visible

We used a citizen science approach to explore personal exposure to air pollution of selected informal settlement dwellers in Nairobi, Kenya. This paper presents the methods used, with the aim of informing others who wish to conduct similar work in the future, and some results, including policy impact. We used three interlinked methods: 1) a personal mobile exposure monitoring campaign in which individual workers used Dylos monitors to measure variations in their exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) within the settlement over the course of a day, 2) a questionnaire conducted before and after the monitoring campaign to assess any changes in knowledge or attitude in the wider community, and 3) two workshops, which facilitated the citizen science approach and brought together members of the community, local policy makers and researchers. The three elements of the study provided the local community, policymakers and scientists with new insights into the challenges air pollution poses for human health in such settlements, and opportunities for exploring how to monitor, mitigate and avoid these pollutants using a citizen science approach. We found significant differences in PM2.5 exposure between individual workers that could be partially explained by spatial differences in concentration that we identified within the settlement. Residents of the informal settlement identified a number of sources that might explain these differences in concentration, although many residents perceived air quality to be good both indoors and outdoors. The workshops raised awareness of the issue of air pollution and brought together affected community members and local and national policy makers to discuss air pollution issues in Nairobi's informal settlements. As a result, a new knowledge exchange network, the Kenya Air Quality Network, of policy-makers, researchers and community members was formed with the aim to facilitate the improvement of air quality across Kenya

New Insights into Leaf Physiological Responses to Ozone for Use in Crop Modelling

Estimating food production under future air pollution and climate conditions in scenario analysis depends on accurately modelling ozone (O₃) effects on yield. This study tests several assumptions that form part of published approaches for modelling O₃ effects on photosynthesis and leaf duration against experimental data. In 2015 and 2016, two wheat cultivars were exposed in eight hemispherical glasshouses to O₃ ranging from 22 to 57 ppb (24 h mean), with profiles ranging from raised background to high peak treatments. The stomatal O₃ flux (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose, POD) to leaves was simulated using a multiplicative stomatal conductance model. Leaf senescence occurred earlier as average POD increased according to a linear relationship, and the two cultivars showed very different senescence responses. Negative effects of O₃ on photosynthesis were only observed alongside O₃-induced leaf senescence, suggesting that O₃ does not impair photosynthesis in un-senesced flag leaves at the realistic O₃ concentrations applied here. Accelerated senescence is therefore likely to be the dominant O₃ effect influencing yield in most agricultural environments. POD was better than 24 h mean concentration and AOT40 (accumulated O₃ exceeding 40 ppb, daylight hours) at predicting physiological response to O₃, and flux also accounted for the difference in exposure resulting from peak and high background treatments

Using a co-created transdisciplinary approach to explore the complexity of air pollution in informal settlements

We present novel co-created transdisciplinary research that uses arts and humanities methods to explore air pollution in an informal settlement (Mukuru) in Nairobi, Kenya. Air pollution is a well-documented major human health issue, but despite many air pollution reduction interventions designed to improve health, these are frequently ineffective. Often this is because they fail to account for local knowledge, cultural practices and priorities of the intended recipients. Designing solutions therefore requires in-depth exploration of relevant issues with stakeholders. Researchers worked collaboratively with local residents to develop a range of methods to explore understandings of air pollution including interviews, storytelling, participatory mapping and theatre. Together, we uncovered contrasting definitions of air pollution, differing perceptions of who was responsible for enacting solutions, and overall a view that air pollution cannot be seen in isolation from the other issues faced by settlement residents. The methods used also allowed us to communicate about the topic with a wide audience. While we acknowledge that this research approach is more time consuming than traditional approaches, we urge other researchers wishing to address multifactorial problems, such as air pollution to use a mixture of qualitative, participatory and creative methods to engage with a wide range of stakeholders to elicit new and unexpected understandings that may not otherwise emerge.Additional co-authors: Charlotte Waelde, Anna Walnycki, Megan Wainwright, Jana Wendler, and Mike Wilso

Evaluation of simulated biomass damage in forest ecosystems induced by ozone against observation-based estimates

Regional estimates of the effects of ozone pollution on forest growth depend on the availability of reliable damage functions that estimate a representative ecosystem response to ozone exposure. A number of such damage functions for forest tree species and forest functional types have recently been published and subsequently applied in terrestrial biosphere models to estimate regional or global effects of ozone on forest tree productivity and carbon storage in the living plant biomass. The resulting impacts estimated by these biosphere models show large uncertainty in the magnitude of ozone effects predicted. To understand the role that these damage functions play in determining the variability of estimated ozone impacts, we use the O-CN biosphere model to provide a standardised modelling framework. We test four published damage functions describing the leaf-level, photosynthetic response to ozone exposure (targeting Vcmax or net photosynthesis) in terms of their simulated whole-tree biomass responses against field data from 23 ozone filtration/fumigation experiments conducted with European tree species at sites across Europe with a range of climatic conditions. Our results show that none of these previously published damage functions lead to simulated whole-tree biomass reductions in agreement with the observed dose-response relationships derived from these field experiments, and instead lead to significant over- / or underestimations of the ozone effect. By reparameterising these photosynthetic based damage functions we develop linear, plant functional type specific dose-response relationships, which provide accurate simulations of the observed whole-tree biomass response across these 23 experiments

Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production

Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010–2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change

ECLAIRE third periodic report

The ÉCLAIRE project (Effects of Climate Change on Air Pollution Impacts and Response Strategies for European Ecosystems) is a four year (2011-2015) project funded by the EU's Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (FP7)

ECLAIRE: Effects of Climate Change on Air Pollution Impacts and Response Strategies for European Ecosystems. Project final report

The central goal of ECLAIRE is to assess how climate change will alter the extent to which air pollutants threaten terrestrial ecosystems. Particular attention has been given to nitrogen compounds, especially nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3), as well as Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) in relation to tropospheric ozone (O3) formation, including their interactions with aerosol components. ECLAIRE has combined a broad program of field and laboratory experimentation and modelling of pollution fluxes and ecosystem impacts, advancing both mechanistic understanding and providing support to European policy makers. The central finding of ECLAIRE is that future climate change is expected to worsen the threat of air pollutants on Europe’s ecosystems. Firstly, climate warming is expected to increase the emissions of many trace gases, such as agricultural NH3, the soil component of NOx emissions and key BVOCs. Experimental data and numerical models show how these effects will tend to increase atmospheric N deposition in future. By contrast, the net effect on tropospheric O3 is less clear. This is because parallel increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will offset the temperature-driven increase for some BVOCs, such as isoprene. By contrast, there is currently insufficient evidence to be confident that CO2 will offset anticipated climate increases in monoterpene emissions. Secondly, climate warming is found to be likely to increase the vulnerability of ecosystems towards air pollutant exposure or atmospheric deposition. Such effects may occur as a consequence of combined perturbation, as well as through specific interactions, such as between drought, O3, N and aerosol exposure. These combined effects of climate change are expected to offset part of the benefit of current emissions control policies. Unless decisive mitigation actions are taken, it is anticipated that ongoing climate warming will increase agricultural and other biogenic emissions, posing a challenge for national emissions ceilings and air quality objectives related to nitrogen and ozone pollution. The O3 effects will be further worsened if progress is not made to curb increases in methane (CH4) emissions in the northern hemisphere. Other key findings of ECLAIRE are that: 1) N deposition and O3 have adverse synergistic effects. Exposure to ambient O3 concentrations was shown to reduce the Nitrogen Use Efficiency of plants, both decreasing agricultural production and posing an increased risk of other forms of nitrogen pollution, such as nitrate leaching (NO3-) and the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O); 2) within-canopy dynamics for volatile aerosol can increase dry deposition and shorten atmospheric lifetimes; 3) ambient aerosol levels reduce the ability of plants to conserve water under drought conditions; 4) low-resolution mapping studies tend to underestimate the extent of local critical loads exceedance; 5) new dose-response functions can be used to improve the assessment of costs, including estimation of the value of damage due to air pollution effects on ecosystems, 6) scenarios can be constructed that combine technical mitigation measures with dietary change options (reducing livestock products in food down to recommended levels for health criteria), with the balance between the two strategies being a matter for future societal discussion. ECLAIRE has supported the revision process for the National Emissions Ceilings Directive and will continue to deliver scientific underpinning into the future for the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution

Impacts of summer ozone exposure on the growth and overwintering of UK upland vegetation

The effects of ozone exposure on species of an upland grassland were assessed. Thirty-three species from Snowdonia, North Wales, UK, were exposed for 10 weeks to a weekly episodic ozone regime in solardomes representing predicted future concentrations. Two solardomes were used as controls, with ozone added to charcoal-filtered air to give a continuous ozone concentration of 30 ppb (O3(30)). A weekly episodic ozone regime was applied to two other solardomes, with concentrations rising for 8 h per day to 80 ppb on day 1, 100 ppb on days 2 and 3, and 80 ppb on day 4; ozone concentrations remained at 30 ppb at all other times (O3(30+peaks)). The control and background ozone concentrations of 30 ppb were maintained throughout the night as well as during the daytime. During exposure to the episodic ozone regime, some species were sensitive to ozone and showed ozone-specific leaf injury symptoms (e.g. Carex echinata) and/or premature senescence (e.g. Festuca rubra) and/or changes in above-ground biomass (e.g. Armeria maritima), whereas other species (e.g Holcus lanatus and Carex demissa) showed no effects. Some species, although showing no effects during the 10-week ozone exposure, showed carry-over effects on biomass the following spring, after a winter period of ambient ozone exposure (e.g. Galium saxatile, Nardus stricta and Saxifraga stellaris). The carry-over effects shown in this study indicate the potential ecological impact of ozone on semi-natural vegetation species and indicate the importance of longer-term studies on the effects of ozone on plant