Prediction of slope instabilities due to deep-seated gravitational creep

International audienceDeep-seated gravitational creep in rock slopes, rock-flow or sackung is a special category of mass-movement, in which long-lasting small-scale movements prevail. The prime causes of these mass movements in the Alpine area seem to have been glacial retreat at ~15000 a B.P. Many sackung stabilize and some undergo the transition to rapid sliding. This paper concentrates on four mass-movements in crystalline complexes of the Austrian Alps which have been investigated for aspects of deep-seated gravitational creep and prediction of the transition to rapid sliding. The present-day extent of the creeping or sliding of the rock mass has been modelled by a process of progressive, stress induced damage. Subcritical crack growth has been assumed to control this process and also the velocity of the mass movement. A sliding surface and decreasing Coulomb stress at this surface as a function of slip is a precondition for instability. The development of the four examples has been modelled successfully by a rotational slider block model and the conception of subcritical crack growth and progressive smoothing of the sliding surface. The interrelations between velocity, pore water pressure, seismic activity and the state of the sliding surface have been derived. Finally we discuss how the hypothesis inherent in the models presented could be validated and used for prediction

Aseismic transient driving the swarm-like seismic sequence in the Pollino range, Southern Italy

Tectonic earthquake swarms challenge our understanding of earthquake processes since it is difficult to link observations to the underlying physical mechanisms and to assess the hazard they pose. Transient forcing is thought to initiate and drive the spatio-temporal release of energy during swarms. The nature of the transient forcing may vary across sequences and range from aseismic creeping or transient slip to diffusion of pore pressure pulses to fluid redistribution and migration within the seismogenic crust. Distinguishing between such forcing mechanisms may be critical to reduce epistemic uncertainties in the assessment of hazard due to seismic swarms, because it can provide information on the frequency–magnitude distribution of the earthquakes (often deviating from the assumed Gutenberg–Richter relation) and on the expected source parameters influencing the ground motion (for example the stress drop). Here we study the ongoing Pollino range (Southern Italy) seismic swarm, a long-lasting seismic sequence with more than five thousand events recorded and located since October 2010. The two largest shocks (magnitude Mw = 4.2 and Mw = 5.1) are among the largest earthquakes ever recorded in an area which represents a seismic gap in the Italian historical earthquake catalogue. We investigate the geometrical, mechanical and statistical characteristics of the largest earthquakes and of the entire swarm. We calculate the focal mechanisms of the Ml > 3 events in the sequence and the transfer of Coulomb stress on nearby known faults and analyse the statistics of the earthquake catalogue. We find that only 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the sequence can be explained as aftershocks, and the remaining 75 per cent may be attributed to a transient forcing. The b-values change in time throughout the sequence, with low b-values correlated with the period of highest rate of activity and with the occurrence of the largest shock. In the light of recent studies on the palaeoseismic and historical activity in the Pollino area, we identify two scenarios consistent with the observations and our analysis: This and past seismic swarms may have been ‘passive’ features, with small fault patches failing on largely locked faults, or may have been accompanied by an ‘active’, largely aseismic, release of a large portion of the accumulated tectonic strain. Those scenarios have very different implications for the seismic hazard of the area

The Role of Pore Fluid Pressure on the Failure of Magma Reservoirs:Insights From Indonesian and Aleutian Arc Volcanoes

We use numerical models to study the mechanical stability of magma reservoirs embedded in elastic host rock. We quantify the overpressure required to open tensile fractures (the failure overpressure), as a function of the depth and the size of the reservoir, the loading by the volcanic edifice, and the pore fluid pressure in the crust. We show that the pore fluid pressure is the most important parameter controlling the magnitude of the failure overpressure rather than the reservoir depth and the edifice load. Under lithostatic pore fluid pressure conditions, the failure overpressure is on the order of the rock tensile strength (a few tens of megapascals). Under zero pore fluid pressure conditions, the failure overpressure increases linearly with depth (a few hundreds of megapascals at 5 km depth). We use our models to forecast the failure displacement (the cumulative surface displacement just before an eruption) on volcanoes showing unrest: Sinabung and Agung (Indonesia) and Okmok and Westdahl (Aleutian). By comparison between our forecast and the observation, we provide valuable constraint on the pore fluid pressure conditions on the volcanic system. At Okmok, the occurrence of the 2008 eruption can be explained with a 1,000 m reservoir embedded in high pore fluid pressure, whereas the absence of eruption at Westdahl better suggests that the pore fluid pressure is much lower than lithostatic. Our finding suggests that the pore fluid pressure conditions around the reservoir may play an important role in the triggering of an eruption by encouraging or discouraging the failure of the reservoir. Key Points Numerical calculation of the failure overpressure required to cause magma intrusion is dependent on pore fluid pressure High pore fluid pressure encourages eruptions by reducing the failure overpressure Different pore fluid pressure conditions can explain the difference of eruptive behavior between volcanoe

Prediction of slope instabilities due to deep-seated gravitational creep

Deep-seated gravitational creep in rock slopes, rock-flow or sackung is a special category of mass-movement, in which long-lasting small-scale movements prevail. The prime causes of these mass movements in the Alpine area seem to have been glacial retreat at ~15000 a B.P. Many sackung stabilize and some undergo the transition to rapid sliding. This paper concentrates on four mass-movements in crystalline complexes of the Austrian Alps which have been investigated for aspects of deep-seated gravitational creep and prediction of the transition to rapid sliding. The present-day extent of the creeping or sliding of the rock mass has been modelled by a process of progressive, stress induced damage. Subcritical crack growth has been assumed to control this process and also the velocity of the mass movement. A sliding surface and decreasing Coulomb stress at this surface as a function of slip is a precondition for instability. The development of the four examples has been modelled successfully by a rotational slider block model and the conception of subcritical crack growth and progressive smoothing of the sliding surface. The interrelations between velocity, pore water pressure, seismic activity and the state of the sliding surface have been derived. Finally we discuss how the hypothesis inherent in the models presented could be validated and used for prediction