Convert index trading to option strategies via LSTM architecture

AbstractIn the past, most strategies were mainly designed to focus on stocks or futures as the trading target. However, due to the enormous number of companies in the market, it is not easy to select a set of stocks or futures for investment. By investigating each company's financial situation and the trend of the overall financial market, people can invest precisely in the market and choose to go long or short. Moreover, how to determine the position size of the transaction is also a problematic issue. In the past, many money management theories were based on the Kelly criterion. And they put a certain percentage of their total funds into the market for trading. Nonetheless, three massive problems cannot be overcome. First, futures are leveraged transactions, and extra funds must be deposited as margin. It causes that the position size is hard to be estimated by the Kelly criterion. The second point is that the trading strategy is difficult to determine the winning rate in the financial market and cannot be brought into the Kelly criterion to calculate the optimal fraction. Last, the financial data are always massive. A big data technique should be applied to resolve this issue and enhance the performance of the framework to reveal knowledge in the financial data. Therefore, in this paper, a concept of converting the original futures trading strategy into options trading is proposed. An LSTM (long short-term memory)-based framework is proposed to predict the profit probability of the original futures strategy and convert the corresponding daily take-profit and stop-loss points according to the delta value of the options. Finally, the proposed framework brings the results into the Kelly criterion to get the optimal fraction of options trading. The final research results show that options trading is closer to the optimal fraction calculated by the Kelly criterion than futures trading. If the original futures trading strategy can profit, the benefits after converting to options trading can be further superior

The Vibrio cholerae var regulon encodes a metallo-β-lactamase and an antibiotic efflux pump, which are regulated by VarR, a LysR-type transcription factor

The genome sequence of V. cholerae O1 Biovar Eltor strain N16961 has revealed a putative antibiotic resistance (var) regulon that is predicted to encode a transcriptional activator (VarR), which is divergently transcribed relative to the putative resistance genes for both a metallo-β-lactamase (VarG) and an antibiotic efflux-pump (VarABCDEF). We sought to test whether these genes could confer antibiotic resistance and are organised as a regulon under the control of VarR. VarG was overexpressed and purified and shown to have β-lactamase activity against penicillins, cephalosporins and carbapenems, having the highest activity against meropenem. The expression of VarABCDEF in the Escherichia coli (ΔacrAB) strain KAM3 conferred resistance to a range of drugs, but most significant resistance was to the macrolide spiramycin. A gel-shift analysis was used to determine if VarR bound to the promoter regions of the resistance genes. Consistent with the regulation of these resistance genes, VarR binds to three distinct intergenic regions, varRG, varGA and varBC located upstream and adjacent to varG, varA and varC, respectively. VarR can act as a repressor at the varRG promoter region; whilst this repression was relieved upon addition of β-lactams, these did not dissociate the VarR/varRG-DNA complex, indicating that the de-repression of varR by β-lactams is indirect. Considering that the genomic arrangement of VarR-VarG is strikingly similar to that of AmpR-AmpC system, it is possible that V. cholerae has evolved a system for resistance to the newer β-lactams that would prove more beneficial to the bacterium in light of current selective pressures

Clinical Efficacy and Post-Treatment Seromarkers Associated with the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma among Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

This follow-up study enrolled chronic hepatitis C patients to evaluate the treatment efficacy and to identify post-treatment seromarkers associated with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with a sustained virological response (SVR) or nonsustained virological response (NSVR). A total of 4639 patients who received pegylated interferon and ribavirin during 2004–2013 were followed until December 2014. HCC was confirmed through health examinations and data linkage with a national database. A total of 233 HCC cases were reported after 26,163 person-years of follow-up, indicating an incidence of 8.9 per 1000 person-years: 6.9 for SVR and 21.6 for NSVR per 1000 person-years. The associated risk of HCC in patients with SVR was 0.37 (0.22–0.63) for those without cirrhosis and 0.54 (0.31–0.92) for those with cirrhosis compared with their respective counterparts with NSVR. Among patients with SVR, advanced age, male gender, cirrhosis, decreased platelet count, and increased aspartate aminotransferase and α-fetoprotein levels were associated with HCC (p < 0.001). The treatment of chronic hepatitis C patients before they developed cirrhosis showed a higher efficacy than did the treatment of those who had already developed cirrhosis. Patients with SVR may still have a risk of HCC and need to be regularly monitored

Oncologic impact of delay between diagnosis and radical nephroureterectomy

PurposeThis study aimed to evaluate the oncological outcome of delayed surgical wait time from the diagnosis of upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) to radical nephroureterectomy (RNU).MethodsIn this multicenter retrospective study, medical records were collected between 1988 and 2021 from 18 participating Taiwanese hospitals under the Taiwan UTUC Collaboration Group. Patients were dichotomized into the early (≤90 days) and late (&gt;90 days) surgical wait-time groups. Overall survival, disease-free survival, and bladder recurrence-free survival were calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed using stepwise linear regression.ResultsOf the 1251 patients, 1181 (94.4%) were classifed into the early surgical wait-time group and 70 (5.6%) into the late surgical wait-time group. The median surgical wait time was 21 days, and the median follow-up was 59.5 months. Our study showed delay-time more than 90 days appeared to be associated with worse overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] 1.974, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.166−3.343, p = 0.011), and disease-free survival (HR 1.997, 95% CI 1.137−3.507, p = 0.016). This remained as an independent prognostic factor after other confounding factors were adjusted. Age, ECOG performance status, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), surgical margin, tumor location and adjuvant systemic therapy were independent prognostic factors for overall survival. Tumor location and adjuvant systemic therapy were also independent prognostic factors for disease-free survival.ConclusionsFor patients with UTUC undergoing RNU, the surgical wait time should be minimized to less than 90 days. Prolonged delay times may be associated with poor overall and disease-free survival

The Risk of Stroke after Percutaneous Vertebroplasty for Osteoporosis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PURPOSE: To investigate the incidence and risk of stroke after percutaneous vertebroplasty in patients with osteoporosis. METHODS: A group of 334 patients with osteoporosis, and who underwent percutaneous vertebroplasty during the study period, was compared to 1,655 age-, sex- and propensity score-matched patients who did not undergo vertebroplasty. All demographic covariates and co-morbidities were deliberately matched between the two groups to avoid selection bias. Every subject was followed-up for up to five years for stroke. Adjustments using a Cox regression model and Kaplan-Meier analyses were conducted. RESULTS: A total of 1,989 osteoporotic patients were followed up for 3,760.13 person-years. Overall, the incidence rates of any stroke, hemorrhagic stroke and ischemic stroke were 22.6, 4.2 and 19.6 per 1,000 person-years, respectively. Patients who underwent vertebroplasty were not more likely to have any stroke (crude hazard ratio = 1.13, p = 0.693), hemorrhagic stroke (HR = 2.21, p = 0.170), or ischemic stroke (HR = 0.96, p = 0.90). After adjusting for demographics, co-morbidities and medications, the vertebroplasty group had no significant difference with the comparison group in terms of any, hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes (adjusted HR = 1.22, 3.17, and 0.96, p = 0.518, 0.055, and 0.91, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Osteoporotic patients who undergo percutaneous vertebroplasty are not at higher risk of any stroke in the next five years after the procedure

The C-Terminus of Histone H2B Is Involved in Chromatin Compaction Specifically at Telomeres, Independently of Its Monoubiquitylation at Lysine 123

Telomeric heterochromatin assembly in budding yeast propagates through the association of Silent Information Regulator (SIR) proteins with nucleosomes, and the nucleosome array has been assumed to fold into a compacted structure. It is believed that the level of compaction and gene repression within heterochromatic regions can be modulated by histone modifications, such as acetylation of H3 lysine 56 and H4 lysine 16, and monoubiquitylation of H2B lysine 123. However, it remains unclear as to whether or not gene silencing is a direct consequence of the compaction of chromatin. Here, by investigating the role of the carboxy-terminus of histone H2B in heterochromatin formation, we identify that the disorderly compaction of chromatin induced by a mutation at H2B T122 specifically hinders telomeric heterochromatin formation. H2B T122 is positioned within the highly conserved AVTKY motif of the αC helix of H2B. Heterochromatin containing the T122E substitution in H2B remains inaccessible to ectopic dam methylase with dramatically increased mobility in sucrose gradients, indicating a compacted chromatin structure. Genetic studies indicate that this unique phenotype is independent of H2B K123 ubiquitylation and Sir4. In addition, using ChIP analysis, we demonstrate that telomere structure in the mutant is further disrupted by a defect in Sir2/Sir3 binding and the resulting invasion of euchromatic histone marks. Thus, we have revealed that the compaction of chromatin per se is not sufficient for heterochromatin formation. Instead, these results suggest that an appropriately arrayed chromatin mediated by H2B C-terminus is required for SIR binding and the subsequent formation of telomeric chromatin in yeast, thereby identifying an intrinsic property of the nucleosome that is required for the establishment of telomeric heterochromatin. This requirement is also likely to exist in higher eukaryotes, as the AVTKY motif of H2B is evolutionarily conserved

Longitudinal Evaluation of an N-Ethyl-N-Nitrosourea-Created Murine Model with Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus

Normal-pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) is a neurodegenerative disorder that usually occurs late in adult life. Clinically, the cardinal features include gait disturbances, urinary incontinence, and cognitive decline.Herein we report the characterization of a novel mouse model of NPH (designated p23-ST1), created by N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU)-induced mutagenesis. The ventricular size in the brain was measured by 3-dimensional micro-magnetic resonance imaging (3D-MRI) and was found to be enlarged. Intracranial pressure was measured and was found to fall within a normal range. A histological assessment and tracer flow study revealed that the cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) pathway of p23-ST1 mice was normal without obstruction. Motor functions were assessed using a rotarod apparatus and a CatWalk gait automatic analyzer. Mutant mice showed poor rotarod performance and gait disturbances. Cognitive function was evaluated using auditory fear-conditioned responses with the mutant displaying both short- and long-term memory deficits. With an increase in urination frequency and volume, the mutant showed features of incontinence. Nissl substance staining and cell-type-specific markers were used to examine the brain pathology. These studies revealed concurrent glial activation and neuronal loss in the periventricular regions of mutant animals. In particular, chronically activated microglia were found in septal areas at a relatively young age, implying that microglial activation might contribute to the pathogenesis of NPH. These defects were transmitted in an autosomal dominant mode with reduced penetrance. Using a whole-genome scan employing 287 single-nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) markers and further refinement using six additional SNP markers and four microsatellite markers, the causative mutation was mapped to a 5.3-cM region on chromosome 4.Our results collectively demonstrate that the p23-ST1 mouse is a novel mouse model of human NPH. Clinical observations suggest that dysfunctions and alterations in the brains of patients with NPH might occur much earlier than the appearance of clinical signs. p23-ST1 mice provide a unique opportunity to characterize molecular changes and the pathogenic mechanism of NPH

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI &lt;18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school&#x2;aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI &lt;2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI &gt;2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit