Influence of Bioenergy Crop Production and Climate Change on Ecosystem Services

Land use change can significantly affect the provision of ecosystem services and the effects could be exacerbated by projected climate change. We quantify ecosystem services of bioenergy‐based land use change and estimate the potential changes of ecosystem services due to climate change projections. We considered 17 bioenergy‐based scenarios with Miscanthus, switchgrass, and corn stover as candidate bioenergy feedstock. Soil and Water Assessment Tool simulations of biomass/grain yield, hydrology, and water quality were used to quantify ecosystem services freshwater provision (FWPI), food (FPI) and fuel provision, erosion regulation (ERI), and flood regulation (FRI). Nine climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase‐3 were used to quantify the potential climate change variability. Overall, ecosystem services of heavily row cropped Wildcat Creek watershed were lower than St. Joseph River watershed which had more forested and perennial pasture lands. The provision of ecosystem services for both study watersheds were improved with bioenergy production scenarios. Miscanthus in marginal lands of Wildcat Creek (9% of total area) increased FWPI by 27% and ERI by 14% and decreased FPI by 12% from the baseline. For St. Joseph watershed, Miscanthus in marginal lands (18% of total area) improved FWPI by 87% and ERI by 23% while decreasing FPI by 46%. The relative impacts of land use change were considerably larger than climate change impacts in this paper. Editor’s note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/140015/1/jawr12591_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/140015/2/jawr12591.pd

Impacts of climate change on hydrology, water quality and crop productivity in the Ohio-Tennessee River Basin

Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus in the stream systems of the Corn Belt region in the Midwestern US. The eastern part of this region is comprised of the Ohio-Tennessee River Basin (OTRB), which is considered a key contributing area for water pollution and the Northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. A point of crucial importance in this basin is therefore how intensive corn-based cropping systems for food and fuel production can be sustainable and coexist with a healthy water environment, not only under existing climate but also under climate change conditions in the future. To address this issue, a OTRB integrated modeling system has been built with a greatly refined 12-digit subbasin structure based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) water quality model, which is capable of estimating landscape and in-stream water and pollutant yields in response to a wide array of alternative cropping and/or management strategies and climatic conditions. The effects of three agricultural management scenarios on crop production and pollutant loads exported from the crop land of the OTRB to streams and rivers were evaluated: (1) expansion of continuous corn across the entire basin, (2) adoption of no-till on all corn and soybean fields in the region, (3) implementation of a winter cover crop within the baseline rotations. The effects of each management scenario were evaluated both for current climate and projected mid-century (2046-2065) climates from seven global circulation models (GCMs). In both present and future climates each management scenario resulted in reduced erosion and nutrient loadings to surface water bodies compared to the baseline agricultural management, with cover crops causing the highest water pollution reduction. Corn and soybean yields in the region were negligibly influenced from the agricultural management scenarios. On the other hand, both water quality and crop yield numbers under climate change deviated considerably for all seven GCMs compared to the baseline climate. Future climates from all GCMs led to decreased corn and soybean yields by up to 20% on a mean annual basis, while water quality alterations were either positive or negative depending on the GCM. The study highlights the loss of productivity in the eastern Corn Belt under climate change, the need to consider a range of GCMs when assessing impacts of climate change, and the value of SWAT as a tool to analyze the effects of climate change on parameters of interest at the basin scale

LUMINATE: linking agricultural land use, local water quality and Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

In this paper, we discuss the importance of developing integrated assessment models to support the design and implementation of policies to address water quality problems associated with agricultural pollution. We describe a new modelling system, LUMINATE, which links land use decisions made at the field scale in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Basins through both environmental and hydrological components to downstream water quality effects and hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. This modelling system can be used to analyse detailed policy scenarios identifying the costs of the policies and their resulting benefits for improved local and regional water quality. We demonstrate the model\u27s capabilities with a simple scenario where cover crops are incentivised with green payments over a large expanse of the watershed

Protecting and restoring Europe's waters:an analysis of the future development needs of the Water Framework Directive

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) is a pioneering piece of legislation that aims to protect and enhance aquatic ecosystems and promote sustainable water use across Europe. There is growing concern that the objective of good status, or higher, in all EU waters by 2027 is a long way from being achieved in many countries. Through questionnaire analysis of almost 100 experts, we provide recommendations to enhance WFD monitoring and assessment systems, improve programmes of measures and further integrate with other sectoral policies. Our analysis highlights that there is great potential to enhance assessment schemes through strategic design of monitoring networks and innovation, such as earth observation. New diagnostic tools that use existing WFD monitoring data, but incorporate novel statistical and trait-based approaches could be used more widely to diagnose the cause of deterioration under conditions of multiple pressures and deliver a hierarchy of solutions for more evidence-driven decisions in river basin management. There is also a growing recognition that measures undertaken in river basin management should deliver multiple benefits across sectors, such as reduced flood risk, and there needs to be robust demonstration studies that evaluate these. Continued efforts in ‘mainstreaming’ water policy into other policy sectors is clearly needed to deliver wider success with WFD goals, particularly with agricultural policy. Other key policy areas where a need for stronger integration with water policy was recognised included urban planning (waste water treatment), flooding, climate and energy (hydropower). Having a deadline for attaining the policy objective of good status is important, but even more essential is to have a permanent framework for river basin management that addresses the delays in implementation of measures. This requires a long-term perspective, far beyond the current deadline of 2027

A Large-Scale Nature-Based Solution in Agriculture for Sustainable Water Management: The Lake Karla Case

This study demonstrates a new nature-based solution (NBS) project in agriculture, the ‘Karla’ reservoir in Central Greece, a unique example at European scale, of a lake ecosystem which was dried and is now restored with the purpose to maximize the efficiency of water provision in agriculture and biodiversity enhancement. In this article, we present: (a) The historical developments from the existence of the old natural Lake Karla until the reconstruction of the homonymous artificial reservoir, (b) the environmental and economic benefits that the new project delivers, and (c) the governance and management mechanisms that can ensure the efficient operation of the project. The analysis shows that the reconstructed Lake Karla can serve as a multi-purpose project to combat water scarcity, achieving a twofold crop yield production and respective agricultural income in the surrounding area, securing the coverage of the water supply needs of the closest city, improving the status of groundwater resources, developing a natural shelter for biodiversity and emerging recreation and touristic opportunities. At the same time, its construction and operation costs can be recovered, and the proposed governance plan can ensure the viability of the whole project inspiring similar multi-purpose water retention projects for investment in agriculture and the environment in southern Europe but also in other water scarce regions

Decision making for planning sustainable measures for water quality protection against non point source pollution

In the present PhD thesis an efficient and user friendly Decision Support Tool (DST) is developed in MATLAB-programming, able to assess the effectiveness of agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs) in mitigating nitrates-nitrogen (N-NO3) and phosphorus (P) surface water pollution arising from non-point agricultural sources in river basins. The DST is comprised of five components: a) the BMPs that cover a representative range of crop, soil, nutrient application and livestock management interventions, b) an economic component, which calculates the additional mean annual cost of their 5-year implementation, c) the river basin SWAT (Soil and Water Assesment Tool) model, which evaluates the environmental effectiveness of the BMP interventions at all homogeneous locations within the catchment (Hydrologic Response Units - HRUs), d) a BMP Database that stores mean annual nutrient losses and costs arising from the SWAT implementation of each BMP to all possible HRUs, e) an elitist MATLAB Genetic Algorithm (GA), which serves as the multi-objective optimization ‘engine’ for the selection and placement of BMPs in the agricultural land in the catchment in order to optimise the economic and the two environmental objectives in reasonable time by using the BMP Database. The methodology and the DST were tested in the medium-sized (940km2) Arachtos catchment of Western Greece. Fifty different BMPs were finally formulated including individual and compatible combinations of measures for implementation in each agricultural land use type (corn, alfalfa, pastureland). The trade-off frontiers between cost-P and cost-N-NO3 provided information on 100 different BMP combinations, which result in various mean annual costs and nutrient concentrations at the outlet. The solutions on the fronts correspond to BMP allocations in the catchment that formulate the three criteria differently. The optimal solution was considered to be the 45% reduction of P river concentration at the outlet, together with a 25% reduction of N-NO3 concentration from the baseline, with a total annual cost of approximately 500000€ or 5€/ha. This management solution corresponds to the establishment of filter strips in most of corn and in selected pastureland fields, together with the fertilization reduction in alfalfa fields, which was found to have no impact on crop yields. The multi-criteria optimization framework presented is suggested for a more cost-effective implementation of the environmental legislation at the catchment scale, with the produced maps being invaluable for decision-making, facilitating policy-makers in examining spatial patterns and imposing additional local constraints, if necessary.Στην παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή αναπτύσσεται σε προγραμματιστικό περιβάλλον MATLAB ένα αποδοτικό και εύχρηστο Εργαλείο Υποστήριξης Αποφάσεων (ΕΥΑ), ικανό να εκτιμά την αποτελεσματικότητα αγροτικών Βέλτιστων Διαχειριστικών Πρακτικών (ΔΠ) στον περιορισμό της μη σημειακής ρύπανσης των επιφανειακών υδάτων λεκάνης απορροής από τις αγροτικής προέλευσης ενώσεις θρεπτικών του αζώτου νιτρικών (Ν-ΝΟ3) και του φωσφόρου (P). Το ΕΥΑ αποτελείται από: α) τις εναλλακτικές ΔΠ που περιλαμβάνουν παρεμβάσεις στη διαχείριση των καλλιεργειών, των εδαφικών πόρων, της εφαρμογής θρεπτικών και του ζωικού κεφαλαίου, β) μία συνάρτηση κόστους που υπολογίζει το επιπρόσθετο μέσο ετήσιο κόστος 5ετούς εφαρμογής τους, γ) το διαχειριστικό μοντέλο SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), το οποίο αξιολογεί την περιβαλλοντική αποτελεσματικότητα εφαρμογής των ΔΠ σε όλες τις υδρολογικά ομοιογενείς περιοχές της λεκάνης απορροής (Υδρολογικές Μονάδες - ΥΜ), δ) μία Βάση Δεδομένων Διαχειριστικών Πρακτικών (ΒΔΠ), η οποία αποθηκεύει δεδομένα μέσου ετήσιου φορτίου απωλειών ρύπων και κόστους που προκύπτουν από όλες τις ΥΜ της λεκάνης μετά από εφαρμογή σε αυτές με το μοντέλο SWAT όλων των συμβατών ΔΠ, ε) τον εκλεκτικό Γενετικό Αλγόριθμο (ΓΑ) του MATLAB, ο οποίος αποτελεί τη ‘μηχανή’ πολυκριτηριακής βελτιστοποίησης για την χωρική κατανομή ΔΠ στην αγροτική γη της λεκάνης με σκοπό τη βελτιστοποίηση του οικονομικού και των δύο περιβαλλοντικών κριτηρίων σε εύλογο χρονικό διάστημα λόγω χρήσης της ΒΔΠ στη διαδικασία. Η Μεθοδολογία και το EYA εφαρμόστηκαν στη μέσης έκτασης (940km2) λεκάνη του άνω ρου του Αράχθου στη Δυτική Ελλάδα. Δημιουργήθηκαν 50 ΔΠ προς εξέταση, μεμονωμένα μέτρα και συμβατοί συνδυασμοί αυτών, για εφαρμογή στους τρεις αγροτικούς τύπους χρήσης γης (αραβόσιτος, μηδική, βοσκότοποι). Οι καμπύλες αντιστάθμισης στο δισδιάστατο χώρο κόστους-P και κόστους-Ν-ΝΟ3 από το βέλτιστο μέτωπο Pareto τριών διαστάσεων κατά το τέλος της βελτιστοποίησης, παρείχαν πληροφορία για 100 διαφορετικούς συνδυασμούς ΔΠ, οι οποίοι προκαλούν διαφορετικά ετήσια κόστη και συγκεντρώσεις θρεπτικών στην έξοδο της λεκάνης. Ο εντοπισμός λύσεων καταδεικνύει τη χωρική κατανομή των ΔΠ, που διαμορφώνει διαφορετικά κάθε φορά τις τιμές των τριών κριτηρίων. Η πιο πρόσφορη λύση θεωρήθηκε η κατά 45 και 25% μείωση των μέσων ετήσιων συγκεντρώσεων P και Ν-ΝΟ3 στο ποτάμι αντίστοιχα, με συνολικό ετήσιο κόστος 500000€ ή 5€/ha, η οποία αντιστοιχεί σε διαμόρφωση λωρίδων συγκράτησης στους περισσότερους αγρούς αραβόσιτου και σε επιλεγμένες εκτάσεις βοσκότοπων σε συνδυασμό με τη μείωση χημικής λίπανσης στις εκτάσεις μηδικής, πρακτική που βρέθηκε να μην έχει κανένα αντίκτυπο στην παραγωγή. Το πλαίσιο πολυκριτηριακής βελτιστοποίησης που παρουσιάζεται συστήνεται για την υλοποίηση της Περιβαλλοντικής Νομοθεσίας σε κλίμακα λεκάνης απορροής με ικανοποιητικούς όρους κόστους και αποτελεσματικότητας, με τους παραγόμενους χάρτες να αποτελούν πολύτιμο μέσο για τη λήψη αποφάσεων, διευκολύνοντας τους αρμόδιους στο να επιβάλλουν επιπρόσθετους περιορισμούς τοπικού χαρακτήρα εντός της λεκάνης απορροής, αν αυτό είναι απαραίτητο

Decision making for planning sustainable measures for water quality protection against non-point source pollution

413 σ.Στην παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή αναπτύσσεται σε προγραμματιστικό περιβάλλον MATLAB ένα αποδοτικό και εύχρηστο Εργαλείο Υποστήριξης Αποφάσεων (ΕΥΑ), ικανό να εκτιμά την αποτελεσματικότητα αγροτικών Βέλτιστων Διαχειριστικών Πρακτικών (ΔΠ) στον περιορισμό της μη σημειακής ρύπανσης των επιφανειακών υδάτων λεκάνης απορροής από τις αγροτικής προέλευσης ενώσεις θρεπτικών του αζώτου νιτρικών (Ν-ΝΟ3) και του φωσφόρου (P). Το ΕΥΑ αποτελείται από: α) τις εναλλακτικές ΔΠ που περιλαμβάνουν παρεμβάσεις στη διαχείριση των καλλιεργειών, των εδαφικών πόρων, της εφαρμογής θρεπτικών και του ζωικού κεφαλαίου, β) μία συνάρτηση κόστους που υπολογίζει το επιπρόσθετο μέσο ετήσιο κόστος 5ετούς εφαρμογής τους, γ) το διαχειριστικό μοντέλο SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), το οποίο αξιολογεί την περιβαλλοντική αποτελεσματικότητα εφαρμογής των ΔΠ σε όλες τις υδρολογικά ομοιογενείς περιοχές της λεκάνης απορροής (Υδρολογικές Μονάδες - ΥΜ), δ) μία Βάση Δεδομένων Διαχειριστικών Πρακτικών (ΒΔΠ), η οποία αποθηκεύει δεδομένα μέσου ετήσιου φορτίου απωλειών ρύπων και κόστους που προκύπτουν από όλες τις ΥΜ της λεκάνης μετά από εφαρμογή σε αυτές με το μοντέλο SWAT όλων των συμβατών ΔΠ, ε) τον εκλεκτικό Γενετικό Αλγόριθμο (ΓΑ) του MATLAB, ο οποίος αποτελεί τη ‘μηχανή’ πολυκριτηριακής βελτιστοποίησης για την χωρική κατανομή ΔΠ στην αγροτική γη της λεκάνης με σκοπό τη βελτιστοποίηση του οικονομικού και των δύο περιβαλλοντικών κριτηρίων σε εύλογο χρονικό διάστημα λόγω χρήσης της ΒΔΠ στη διαδικασία. Η Μεθοδολογία και το EYA εφαρμόστηκαν στη μέσης έκτασης (940km2) λεκάνη του άνω ρου του Αράχθου στη Δυτική Ελλάδα. Δημιουργήθηκαν 50 ΔΠ προς εξέταση, μεμονωμένα μέτρα και συμβατοί συνδυασμοί αυτών, για εφαρμογή στους τρεις αγροτικούς τύπους χρήσης γης (αραβόσιτος, μηδική, βοσκότοποι). Οι καμπύλες αντιστάθμισης στο δισδιάστατο χώρο κόστους-P και κόστους-Ν-ΝΟ3 από το βέλτιστο μέτωπο Pareto τριών διαστάσεων κατά το τέλος της βελτιστοποίησης, παρείχαν πληροφορία για 100 διαφορετικούς συνδυασμούς ΔΠ, οι οποίοι προκαλούν διαφορετικά ετήσια κόστη και συγκεντρώσεις θρεπτικών στην έξοδο της λεκάνης. Ο εντοπισμός λύσεων καταδεικνύει τη χωρική κατανομή των ΔΠ, που διαμορφώνει διαφορετικά κάθε φορά τις τιμές των τριών κριτηρίων. Η πιο πρόσφορη λύση θεωρήθηκε η κατά 45 και 25% μείωση των μέσων ετήσιων συγκεντρώσεων P και Ν-ΝΟ3 στο ποτάμι αντίστοιχα, με συνολικό ετήσιο κόστος 500000€ ή 5€/ha, η οποία αντιστοιχεί σε διαμόρφωση λωρίδων συγκράτησης στους περισσότερους αγρούς αραβόσιτου και σε επιλεγμένες εκτάσεις βοσκότοπων σε συνδυασμό με τη μείωση χημικής λίπανσης στις εκτάσεις μηδικής, πρακτική που βρέθηκε να μην έχει κανένα αντίκτυπο στην παραγωγή. Το πλαίσιο πολυκριτηριακής βελτιστοποίησης που παρουσιάζεται συστήνεται για την υλοποίηση της Περιβαλλοντικής Νομοθεσίας σε κλίμακα λεκάνης απορροής με ικανοποιητικούς όρους κόστους και αποτελεσματικότητας, με τους παραγόμενους χάρτες να αποτελούν πολύτιμο μέσο για τη λήψη αποφάσεων, διευκολύνοντας τους αρμόδιους στο να επιβάλλουν επιπρόσθετους περιορισμούς τοπικού χαρακτήρα εντός της λεκάνης απορροής, αν αυτό είναι απαραίτητο.In the present PhD thesis an efficient and user friendly Decision Support Tool (DST) is developed in MATLAB-programming, able to assess the effectiveness of agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs) in mitigating nitrates-nitrogen (N-NO3) and phosphorus (P) surface water pollution arising from non-point agricultural sources in river basins. The DST is comprised of five components: a) the BMPs that cover a representative range of crop, soil, nutrient application and livestock management interventions, b) an economic component, which calculates the additional mean annual cost of their 5-year implementation, c) the river basin SWAT (Soil and Water Assesment Tool) model, which evaluates the environmental effectiveness of the BMP interventions at all homogeneous locations within the catchment (Hydrologic Response Units – HRUs), d) a BMP Database that stores mean annual nutrient losses and costs arising from the SWAT implementation of each BMP to all possible HRUs, e) an elitist MATLAB Genetic Algorithm (GA), which serves as the multi-objective optimization ‘engine’ for the selection and placement of BMPs in the agricultural land in the catchment in order to optimise the economic and the two environmental objectives in reasonable time by using the BMP Database. The methodology and the DST were tested in the medium-sized (940km2) Arachtos catchment of Western Greece. Fifty different BMPs were finally formulated including individual and compatible combinations of measures for implementation in each agricultural land use type (corn, alfalfa, pastureland). The trade-off frontiers between cost-P and cost-N-NO3 provided information on 100 different BMP combinations, which result in various mean annual costs and nutrient concentrations at the outlet. The solutions on the fronts correspond to BMP allocations in the catchment that formulate the three criteria differently. The optimal solution was considered to be the 45% reduction of P river concentration at the outlet, together with a 25% reduction of N-NO3 concentration from the baseline, with a total annual cost of approximately 500000€ or 5€/ha. This management solution corresponds to the establishment of filter strips in most of corn and in selected pastureland fields, together with the fertilization reduction in alfalfa fields, which was found to have no impact on crop yields. The multi-criteria optimization framework presented is suggested for a more cost-effective implementation of the environmental legislation at the catchment scale, with the produced maps being invaluable for decision-making, facilitating policy-makers in examining spatial patterns and imposing additional local constraints, if necessary.Ιωάννης Ν. Παναγόπουλο

Ecosystem Services Evaluation from Sustainable Water Management in Agriculture: An Example from An Intensely Irrigated Area in Central Greece

This study presents the provisional, regulating and cultural ecosystem services that can be delivered by the newly constructed multi-purpose reservoir of Lake Karla located in a water-scarce agricultural area in central Greece. The present short paper takes advantage of literature data and outputs produced from a dynamic GIS hydrologic and management model of the study area with SWAT that simulated hydrology, reservoir operation, irrigation practices and crop production. The paper highlights the net provisional services that the local agricultural society can gain from the full operation of Karla and the additional benefits arising, such as flood control, biodiversity maintenance, aesthetic improvement and touristic opportunities