Predicting avian distributions to evaluate spatiotemporal overlap with locust control operations in eastern Australia

Locusts and grasshoppers cause considerable economic damage to agriculture worldwide. The Australian Plague Locust Commission uses multiple pesticides to control locusts in eastern Australia. Avian exposure to agricultural pesticides is of conservation concern, especially in the case of rare and threatened species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the probability of pesticide exposure of native avian species during operational locust control based on knowledge of species occurrence in areas and times of application. Using presence-absence data provided by the Birds Australia Atlas for 1998 to 2002, we developed a series of generalized linear models to predict avian occurrences on a monthly basis in 0.5 degrees grid cells for 280 species over 2 million km 2 in eastern Australia. We constructed species-specific models relating occupancy patterns to survey date and location, rainfall, and derived habitat preference. Model complexity depended on the number of observations available. Model output was the probability of occurrence for each species at times and locations of past locust control operations within the 5-year study period. Given the high spatiotemporal variability of locust control events, the variability in predicted bird species presence was high, with 108 of the total 280 species being included at least once in the top 20 predicted species for individual space-time events. The models were evaluated using field surveys collected between 2000 and 2005, at sites with and without locust outbreaks. Model strength varied among species. Some species were under- or over-predicted as times and locations of interest typically did not correspond to those in the prediction data set and certain species were likely attracted to locusts as a food source. Field surveys demonstrated the utility of the spatially explicit species lists derived from the models but also identified the presence of a number of previously unanticipated species. These results also emphasize the need for special consideration of rare and threatened species that are poorly predicted by presence-absence models. This modeling exercise was a useful a priori approach in species risk assessments to identify species present at times and locations of locust control applications, and to discover gaps in our knowledge and need for further focused data collection Copyright 2009 by the Ecological Society ot America

The Role of Antimatter Searches in the Hunt for Supersymmetric Dark Matter

We analyze the antimatter yield of supersymmetric (SUSY) models with large neutralino annihilation cross sections. We introduce three benchmark scenarios, respectively featuring bino, wino and higgsino-like lightest neutralinos, and we study in detail the resulting antimatter spectral features. We carry out a systematic and transparent comparison between current and future prospects for direct detection, neutrino telescopes and antimatter searches. We demonstrate that often, in the models we consider, antimatter searches are the only detection channel which already constrains the SUSY parameter space. Particularly large antiprotons fluxes are expected for wino-like lightest neutralinos, while significant antideuteron fluxes result from resonantly annihilating binos. We introduce a simple and general recipe which allows to assess the visibility of a given SUSY model at future antimatter search facilities. We provide evidence that upcoming space-based experiments, like PAMELA or AMS, are going to be, in many cases, the unique open road towards dark matter discovery.Comment: 34 pages, 18 figures; V2: misprints in the labels of fig. 2,3 and 5 correcte

Direct versus indirect detection in mSUGRA with self-consistent halo models

We perform a detailed analysis of the detection prospects of neutralino dark matter in the mSUGRA framework. We focus on models with a thermal relic density, estimated with high accuracy using the DarkSUSY package, in the range favored by current precision cosmological measurements. Direct and indirect detection rates are computed implementing two models for the dark matter halo, tracing opposite regimes for the phase of baryon infall, with fully consistent density profiles and velocity distribution functions. This has allowed, for the first time, a fully consistent comparison between direct and indirect detection prospects. We discuss all relevant regimes in the mSUGRA parameter space, underlining relevant effects, and providing the basis for extending the discussion to alternative frameworks. In general, we find that direct detection and searches for antideuterons in the cosmic rays seems to be the most promising ways to search for neutralinos in these scenarios.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figure

Gamma-ray and radio tests of the e+e- excess from DM annihilations

PAMELA and ATIC recently reported an excess in e+e- cosmic rays. We show that if it is due to Dark Matter annihilations, the associated gamma-ray flux and the synchrotron emission produced by e+e- in the galactic magnetic field violate HESS and radio observations of the galactic center and HESS observations of dwarf Spheroidals, unless the DM density profile is significantly less steep than the benchmark NFW and Einasto profiles.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures; v2: normalizations fixed in Table 2 and typos corrected (no changes in the analysis nor the results), some references and comments added; v3: minor additions, matches published versio

Museums and the ‘new museology’ : theory, practice and organisational change

The widening of roles and expectations within cultural policy discourses has been a challenge to museum workers throughout Great Britain. There has been an expectation that museums are changing from an ‘old’ to a ‘new museology’ that has shaped museum functions and roles. This paper outlines the limitations of this perceived transition as museum services confront multiple exogenous and endogenous expectations, opportunities, pressures and threats. Findings from 23 publically funded museum services across England, Scotland and Wales are presented to explore the roles of professional and hierarchical differentiation, and how there were organisational and managerial limitations to the practical application of the ‘new museology’. The ambiguity surrounding policy, roles and practice also highlighted that museum workers were key agents in interpreting, using and understanding wide-ranging policy expectations. The practical implementation of the ‘new museology’ is linked to the values held by museum workers themselves and how they relate it to their activities at the ground level

High energy cosmic rays

I review here some of the physics we are learning and expect to learn in the near future through the observation of cosmic rays. The study of cosmic rays involves a combination of data from accelerators, ground arrays, atmospheric fluorescence detectors and balloon and satellite experiments. I will discuss the data of the Pierre Auger Observatory, PAMELA, ATIC and FST among other experiments.Comment: 18 pages, 18 figures (iopams.sty, jpconf11.clo and jpconf.cls required to tex). Plenary talk at "Discrete `08", December 11-16 2008, Valencia, Spai

The geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa.

BACKGROUND: There remains a lack of epidemiological data on the geographical distribution of trachoma to support global mapping and scale up of interventions for the elimination of trachoma. The Global Atlas of Trachoma (GAT) was launched in 2011 to address these needs and provide standardised, updated and accessible maps. This paper uses data included in the GAT to describe the geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa. METHODS: Data assembly used structured searches of published and unpublished literature to identify cross-sectional epidemiological data on the burden of trachoma since 1980. Survey data were abstracted into a standardised database and mapped using geographical information systems (GIS) software. The characteristics of all surveys were summarized by country according to data source, time period, and survey methodology. Estimates of the current population at risk were calculated for each country and stratified by endemicity class. RESULTS: At the time of writing, 1342 records are included in the database representing surveys conducted between 1985 and 2012. These data were provided by direct contact with national control programmes and academic researchers (67%), peer-reviewed publications (17%) and unpublished reports or theses (16%). Prevalence data on active trachoma are available in 29 of the 33 countries in Africa classified as endemic for trachoma, and 1095 (20.6%) districts have representative data collected through population-based prevalence surveys. The highest prevalence of active trachoma and trichiasis remains in the Sahel area of West Africa and Savannah areas of East and Central Africa and an estimated 129.4 million people live in areas of Africa confirmed to be trachoma endemic. CONCLUSION: The Global Atlas of Trachoma provides the most contemporary and comprehensive summary of the burden of trachoma within Africa. The GAT highlights where future mapping is required and provides an important planning tool for scale-up and surveillance of trachoma control

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis: Health Impact after 8 Years

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a vector-borne, chronically disabling parasitic infection causing elephantiasis, lymphedema, and hydrocele. The infection is endemic in 83 countries worldwide, with more than 1.2 billion people at risk and 120 million already infected. Since 1998, the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) has targeted elimination of LF by 2020. In its first 8 operational years, the program has scaled-up to provide more than 1.9 billion treatments through annual, single-dose mass drug administration (MDA) to ∼570 million individuals living in 48 LF-endemic countries. Not only do the GPELF drugs prevent the spread of LF, they also stop the progression of disease in those already infected. In addition, since two of the three drugs used for LF elimination have broad anti-parasite properties, treated populations are freed from both intestinal worms and from skin infections with onchocerca, lice, and scabies. To better understand the public health benefit of this ongoing global health initiative, we undertook an analysis of Programme data made available to WHO by participating countries. Our conservative estimates show that the GPELF has had an unprecedented public health impact on both LF and other neglected tropical diseases; it justly deserves the accolade of ‘a best buy’ in global health

The Importance of Failure: How Doing Impact Surveys That Fail Saves Trachoma Programs Money.

Trachoma programs use annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) in evaluation units (EUs) that generally encompass 100,000-250,000 people. After one, three, or five MDA rounds, programs undertake impact surveys. Where impact survey prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1- to 9-year-olds is ≥ 5%, ≥ 1 additional MDA rounds are recommended before resurvey. Impact survey costs, and the proportion of impact surveys returning TF prevalence ≥ 5% (the failure rate or, less pejoratively, the MDA continuation rate), therefore influence the cost of eliminating trachoma. We modeled, for illustrative EU sizes, the financial cost of undertaking MDA with and without conducting impact surveys. As an example, we retrospectively assessed how conducting impact surveys affected costs in the United Republic of Tanzania for 2017-2018. For EUs containing 100,000 people, the median (interquartile range) cost of continuing MDA without doing impact surveys is USD 28,957 (17,581-36,197) per EU per year, whereas continuing MDA solely where indicated by impact survey results costs USD 17,564 (12,158-21,694). If the mean EU population is 100,000, then continuing MDA without impact surveys becomes advantageous in financial cost terms only when the continuation rate exceeds 71%. For the United Republic of Tanzania in 2017-2018, doing impact surveys saved enough money to provide MDA for > 1,000,000 people. Although trachoma impact surveys have a nontrivial cost, they generally save money, providing EUs have > 50,000 inhabitants, the continuation rate is not excessive, and they generate reliable data. If all EUs pass their impact surveys, then we have waited too long to do them