Deer in Britain: population spread and the implications for biodiversity

Owing to their cascading effects on ecosystems, keystone species should be a focus of conservation and management efforts. However, in order to manage populations of keystone species – such as deer – effectively, there is a need to quantify how the distribution and abundance of populations may change in the future, and to understand the potential consequences of these changes for biodiversity. By relating species’ abundance data within their historic ranges to habitat variables, I developed a novel methodology to assess habitat suitability for deer across Britain, none of which are currently at equilibrium with their environment. The resultant models performed well in describing the observed, contemporary distribution of roe, red and Chinese muntjac deer in Britain. In particular, the model for the non-native muntjac deer highlighted the potential for this species to expand its range significantly in the future. I estimated, for the first time, the rate and pattern of the future spread of deer at a landscape scale across Britain, using a spatially explicit population model (SEPM). The SEPM accounts for range-limiting processes such as species-specific dispersal ability and environmental barriers to dispersal. The SEPM performed well in describing the observed spread of roe, red and muntjac deer in Britain between 1972 and 2007, and predicted the spread of, and overlap between, species to continue to increase in the future. From sensitivity analyses, I found that the spread of deer was strongly influenced by adult and juvenile survival. I also investigated the impacts of deer on their environment using two approaches. First, using vegetation data collected in 35 woodland sites across Britain, I found negative relationships between the density of roe deer and the diversity and abundance of shrub-layer vegetation. Second, I investigated the potential cascading effect of this negative relationship between deer density and shrub layer vegetation on bird populations. I used a long-running dataset on bird abundances across Britain, to construct and contrast two multi-species composite population trends for birds: one for deer-sensitive woodland birds and the second for deer-tolerant woodland birds. The divergence in these trends showed a striking association to a composite population trend for deer (also calculated using data from long-running volunteer surveys). These results demonstrate the potential for rapid and profound impacts of keystone herbivores across multiple tropic levels, which are likely to increase as a consequence of the predicted future expansion of such species

Simulating range shifts of African mammals under predicted climate change: potential conservation and economic consequences

Simulated present-day ranges of 281 African mammal species were produced using climate-envelope models. This modeling approach was robust and was therefore used to simulate potential future ranges of 281 African mammals in response to nine future climate change scenarios (three general circulation models for 2020, 2050 and 2080). The size of species' ranges were projected to decrease only slightly (-4.41%) on average by 2080. Species' future ranges were projected to overlap current ranges by only 75.7% on average by 2080.The effectiveness of the African protected area (PA) network under projected future climate change was then assessed by intersecting simulated ranges with PA outlines at the quarter degree scale. By 2080, the mean decrease in species richness was projected to be 7.18% under a best-case scenario of range shift, which is greater that that projected for areas of Africa beyond р As (-4.41%). By 2080, mean species persistence and turnover within РAs were projected to be, on average, 79% and 26% respectively. Species turnover will be unevenly spread across the PA network; PAs in South Africa and Namibia will be affected most by climate change. Simulations indicated the loss of keystone and charismatic species from a number of PAs, including Kruger National Park (KNP). The value of two keystone species in KNP was assessed using the contingent valuation method. Significant factors influencing willingness-to-pay included respondents' age, employment status and experience of visiting the PA. Aggregated willingness-to-pay values were R87.3million (±R17.4million) per year for ensemble species conservation, R41.1 million (± R17.8million) for giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis) and R42.4million (± R14.3million) for elephant (Loxodonta africana) conservation. Until greenhouse gas emissions are stabilised (or reduced), it is inevitable that further climate change, and therefore further alterations of species distributions will occur. Efforts such as increasing the extent and connectedness of the PA network may help to protect species threatened by projected climate change by allowing them the opportunity of tracking climate change

Pot throwing: an investigation into the real-time cognitive and physical processes involved in a craft performance

The ancient pot throwing craft skill involves three elements, maker, material, and technology. It is in the meeting of these three elements that features a complex, dynamic, and constantly changing point of real-time cognitive and physical contact.The research should be of interest to, novice potters learning the skills involved in a pot throwing performance, practitioners wishing to refine their skills through ergonomic study to optimise their pot throwing performance, and educators wishing to enhance their knowledge to add to their teaching skills.The aim of this investigation is to provide pot throwing practitioners and educators with a better understanding of aspects involved in a pot throwing process/ performance, to enable a more inclusive approach in training; and to signpost ways of enabling a safer more efficient, ergonomic and time saving acquisition of complex craft skills.Little academic literature has been written about the pot throwing process, in the context of real-time making and even less on the consideration of pot throwing as a performance. Data was collected, from a purposively- sampled participant population, through the use of verbal protocol, biophysical measures, digital visual observation, and a self-reporting review. Tools from both qualitative and quantitative research methods were combined to form a mixed and integrated research study. The analysis of data from the study shows explicit knowledge that a throwing performance has elements. It is in exeptional and unique tacit responses from individuals that new knowledge can be termed. •In pre-performance activities. •Micro reflective moments. during the throwing performance, and, •Physical stature and muscle bulk affecting the style of throwing and sequence of defined actions e.g. frequency of adding water and wheel rotational speed, grip pattern and posture. The study considered the concept of expertise and the elements that make an expert. The findings of this study leads onto future research into specific pre-performance preparation based on sports metrics and biomechanical analysis associated with fingertip pressure and haptic feedback.</div

Pot throwing: how can an ancient experiential experience, be evaluated in terms of assessing experiential and tacit knowledge.

This article explores the assessment of experiential and tacit knowledge, within a craft process, through the capturing of a pot throwing performance by digital data capture, narrative and anthropometric analysis. It follows a structure of integrated methods as described by Plowright in ‘A Framework for Integrated Methods, FraIM’ The integrated methods can provide a more complete understanding of the performance. Task analysis, enabled skills needed when throwing, to be examined. The compilation taxonomy outlines the proposed separation of performance activities and their assessment. This understanding will aid the practitioner and student in the refinement or acquisition of skills needed for a throwing performance. Future work leading from this study could be applied to other craft areas inclusively involving crafter, material and tools, tacit knowledge and skills

Crafting expertise

Throwing as a ceramic process of making is established worldwide in a variety of forms, but essentially the process has changed relatively little through the years; the method of learning the skills (Schon, 1991), from master to student, from expert to novice, is as old as the craft itself. Expertise is defined as ‘expert skill or knowledge in a particular field’ (Oxford English Dictionary Online, 2012)’ a high level of skill or knowledge’ (Cambridge Dictionaries Online, 2011) ‘a special skill or knowledge’ (Chambers, 2011), this raises issues of how an expert/high or special skill determined? Is it in the number of hours spent learning and honing skills? Or is it when individuals feel they can pass on their knowledge? A comparison of The ‘Expert’ status of the participant potters using the three different viewpoints. Collins (2007); outlines the knowledge levels of expertise across communities of experts in ‘Rethinking Expertise’ which demonstrated in ‘The periodic table of expertises’. Cross (2004), uses a design lens to define expert designers, Dreyfus approaches expertise by skill set(1986), which goes part way to expressing pot throwing expertise. The comparison of these three viewpoints can be used to further define the terms ‘Expert’ and ‘expertise’ within the field of craft. This understanding will aid the practitioner and student in the refinement or acquisition of the skills needed for the throwing performance. A national, purposive sample of throwing potters, with both experience and expertise has been used in this pilot study. The non-variable design intent for the study is three 1kg cylinder pots. Digital recording combined with interview and self-reflection by each potter helped establish their knowledge level and physical expertise. Further analysis of the recorded data provides an opportunity to understand the relationship between gender, scale and choice of technique at performance critical moments in time

Habitat availability explains variation in climate-driven range shifts across multiple taxonomic groups

Range shifting is vital for species persistence, but there is little consensus on why individual species vary so greatly in the rates at which their ranges have shifted in response to recent climate warming. Here, using 40 years of distribution data for 291 species from 13 invertebrate taxa in Britain, we show that interactions between habitat availability and exposure to climate change at the range margins explain up to half of the variation in rates of range shift. Habitat generalists expanded faster than more specialised species, but this intrinsic trait explains less of the variation in range shifts than habitat availability, which additionally depends on extrinsic factors that may be rare or widespread at the range margin. Similarly, while climate change likely underlies polewards expansions, we find that more of the between-species variation is explained by differences in habitat availability than by changes in climatic suitability. A model that includes both habitat and climate, and their statistical interaction, explains the most variation in range shifts. We conclude that climate-change vulnerability assessments should focus as much on future habitat availability as on climate sensitivity and exposure, with the expectation that habitat restoration and protection will substantially improve species' abilities to respond to uncertain future climates

Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses

Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'

Using mixed methods to investigate factors influencing reporting of livestock diseases: a case study among smallholders in Bolivia

Livestock disease surveillance is particularly challenging in resource-scarce settings, where disease events are often unreported. Surveillance performance is determined as much by the quantifiable biological attributes of the disease, as it is by motivations and barriers perceived by livestock keepers for disease reporting. Mixed methods designs, which integrate the collection, analysis and interpretation of qualitative and quantitative data in a single study, are increasingly used across different disciplines. These designs allow for a deeper exploration of the topic under investigation, than can be achieved by either approach alone. In this study a mixed methods design was used in order to gain a greater understanding of the factors that influence reporting of livestock diseases in Bolivia. There is a need to strengthen passive surveillance in this country, among other reasons as part of an eradication program for Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD). Findings revealed livestock keepers in the study area were extremely unlikely to report the occurrence of livestock health events to the Official Veterinary Services (OVS). Communication outside the local community occurs more often through alternative routes and this is positively correlated with disease awareness. The main barriers to disease reporting identified, were a lack of institutional credibility and the conflicting priorities of the OVS and livestock keepers. As for other animal and human diseases across the developing world, passive surveillance of livestock diseases in Bolivia should be enhanced; this is urgent in view of the current FMD eradication program. Increasing timeliness and smallholders’ participation requires a detailed understanding of their likely actions and perceived barriers towards disease reporting. These insights are most likely to be developed through a holistic mixed methods approach of quantitative and qualitative analyses

The Prognostic and Predictive Value of Melanoma-related MicroRNAs Using Tissue and Serum: A MicroRNA Expression Analysis

The overall 5-year survival for melanoma is 91%. However, if distant metastasis occurs (stage IV), cure rates are = 82%) when = 4 miRNAs were expressed. Moreover, the 'MELmiR-7' panel characterised overall survival of melanoma patients better than both serum LDH and S100B (delta log likelihood=11, p < 0.001). This panel was found to be superior to currently used serological markers for melanoma progression, recurrence, and survival; and would be ideally suited to monitor tumour progression in patients diagnosed with early metastatic disease (stages IIIa-c/IV M1a-b) to detect relapse following surgical or adjuvant treatment. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B. V

Clinical utility of C-reactive protein-based triage for presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis in South African adults.

BACKGROUND: Identification of an accurate, low-cost triage test for pulmonary TB among people presenting to healthcare facilities is an urgent global research priority. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of C-reactive protein (CRP) for TB triage among symptomatic adult outpatients, irrespective of HIV status. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled adults reporting at least one (for people with HIV) or two (for people without HIV) symptoms of cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss at two TB clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Participants provided sputum for culture and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of CRP (measured using a laboratory-based assay) against a TB-culture reference standard as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and sensitivity and specificity at pre-specified thresholds. We assessed clinical utility using decision curve analysis and benchmarked against WHO recommendations. RESULTS: Of 932 included individuals, 255 (27%) had culture-confirmed pulmonary TB and 389 (42%) were living with HIV. CRP demonstrated an AUROC of 0·80 (95% confidence interval 0·77-0·83), with sensitivity 93% (89-95%) and specificity 54% (50-58%) using a primary cut-off of ≥10 mg/L. Performance was similar among people with HIV to those without. In decision curve analysis, CRP-based triage offered greater clinical utility than confirmatory testing for all up to a number willing to test threshold of 20 confirmatory tests per true positive pulmonary TB case diagnosed (threshold probability 5%). If it is possible to perform more confirmatory tests than this, a 'confirmatory test for all' strategy performed better. CONCLUSIONS: CRP achieved the WHO-defined sensitivity, but not specificity, targets for a triage test for pulmonary TB and showed evidence of clinical utility among symptomatic outpatients, irrespective of HIV status. FUNDING: South African Medical Research Council, EDCTP2, Royal Society Newton Advanced Fellowship, Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Health Research, Royal College of Physicians