On the Influence of ENSO on Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Using the extended ERA5 reanalysis and three state-of-the-art models, this study explores how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the total frequency, seasonal cycle and preconditioning of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Reanalysis data shows that in the last seven decades, winters with SSWs were more common than winters without, regardless El Niño (EN) or La Niña (LN) occurrence or the ENSO/SSW definitions. In agreement with previous studies, our models tend to simulate a linear ENSO-SSW relationship, with more SSWs for EN, around mid-winter (January–February) as in reanalysis, and less for LN when compared to neutral conditions. Independently of ENSO, the main tropospheric precursor of SSWs appears to be an anomalous wave-like pattern over Eurasia, but it is dominated by wavenumber 1 (WN1) for EN and shows an enhanced wavenumber 2 (WN2) for LN. The differences in this Eurasian wave pattern, which is largely internally generated, emerge from the distinct configuration of the background, stationary wave pattern induced by ENSO in the North Pacific, favoring a stronger WN1 (WN2) component during EN (LN). Our results suggest that the ENSO-forced signal relies on modulating the seasonal-mean polar vortex strength, becoming weaker and more displaced (stronger and more stable) for EN (LN), while ENSO-unforced wave activity represents the ultimate trigger of SSWs. This supports the view that ENSO and SSWs are distinct sources of variability of the winter atmospheric circulation operating at different time-scales and may reconcile previous findings in this context

Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere

The predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO)

El Niño teleconnection to the Euro-Mediterranean late-winter: the role of extratropical Pacific modulation

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the major driver of interannual climate variability at global scale. Observational and model-based studies have fostered a long-standing debate on the shape and intensity of the ENSO influence over the Euro-Mediterranean sector. Indeed, the detection of this signal is strongly affected by the large internal variability that characterizes the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region. This study explores if and how the low-frequency variability of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) may impact the El Niño-NAE teleconnection in late winter, which consists of a dipolar pattern between middle and high latitudes. A set of idealized atmosphere-only experiments, prescribing different phases of the anomalous SST linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed onto an El Niño-like forcing in the tropical Pacific, has been performed in a multi-model framework, in order to assess the potential modulation of the positive ENSO signal. The modelling results suggest, in agreement with observational estimates, that the PDO negative phase (PDO−) may enhance the amplitude of the El Niño-NAE teleconnection, while the dynamics involved appear to be unaltered. On the other hand, the modulating role of the PDO positive phase (PDO+) is not reliable across models. This finding is consistent with the atmospheric response to the PDO itself, which is robust and statistically significant only for PDO−. Its modulation seems to rely on the enhanced meridional SST gradient and the related turbulent heat-flux released along the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension. PDO− weakens the North Pacific jet, whereby favoring more poleward propagation of wave activity, strengthening the El Niño-forced Rossby wave-train. These results imply that there might be conditional predictability for the interannual Euro-Mediterranean climate variability depending on the background state

The complex behavior of El Niño winter 2015-2016

This paper examines the outstanding characteristics of the strong 2015-2016 El Nino (EN) winter and its impact over the European region through the stratosphere. Despite being classified as a strong eastern Pacific (EP) EN event, our analysis reveals an anomalous behavior, with some signatures that are more typical of central Pacific (CP) EN events instead. They include (i) a record-breaking value of the CP index, (ii) a stronger polar vortex in early and midwinter, due to reduced upward wave activity and a weakened Aleutian low, and (iii) the occurrence of one of the earliest stratospheric final warmings (SFWs) on record, which are more prone to occur during CP-EN. Following the SFW, a stratospheric influence on the Euro-Atlantic sector is reported in spring, with persistent Greenland blocking resulting in extreme precipitation over some southern European regions. Results highlight the importance of considering early SFWs as mediators of El Nino teleconnections

Multi-material NiTi-PEEK hybrid cellular structures by selective laser melting and hot pressing: tribological characterization

In this study, a multi-material NiTi-PEEK cellular structured solution was designed, produced and characterized targeting orthopedic applications. For that purpose, Selective Laser Melting (SLM) technique was used to produce NiTi cellular structures with different open-cell sizes and wall thicknesses. Hot Pressing (HP) technique was used to introduce PEEK in the open-cells of NiTi structures to obtain multi-material components. Morphological characterization showed that the selected SLM processing parameters were suited to achieve high-quality parts without significant defects. Tribological characterization proved an enhanced wear resistance to the multimaterial specimens when compared with the mono-material NiTi structures. These multi-material structures are a promising solution for providing a customized stiffness and superior wear resistance to NiTi structures to be integrated in innovative orthopedic designs.This work was supported by FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) through the grant SFRH/BD/140191/2018 and by project NORTE 01–0145_FEDER-000018-HAMaBICo. Additionally, this work is supported by FCT with the reference project UID/EEA/04436/2019

Measurement of radon-induced backgrounds in the NEXT double beta decay experiment

The measurement of the internal $^{222}$Rn activity in the NEXT-White detector during the so-called Run-II period with $^{136}$Xe-depleted xenon is discussed in detail, together with its implications for double beta decay searches in NEXT. The activity is measured through the alpha production rate induced in the fiducial volume by $^{222}$Rn and its alpha-emitting progeny. The specific activity is measured to be $(38.1\pm 2.2~\mathrm{(stat.)}\pm 5.9~\mathrm{(syst.)})$~mBq/m$^3$. Radon-induced electrons have also been characterized from the decay of the $^{214}$Bi daughter ions plating out on the cathode of the time projection chamber. From our studies, we conclude that radon-induced backgrounds are sufficiently low to enable a successful NEXT-100 physics program, as the projected rate contribution should not exceed 0.1~counts/yr in the neutrinoless double beta decay sample.Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures, 6 tables. Version accepted for publication in JHE