Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yIn decision-making processes, reliability and risk aversion play a decisive role. The aim of this study is to perform an uncertainty assessment of the effects of future scenarios of sustainable groundwater pumping strategies on the quantitative and chemical status of an aquifer. The good status of the aquifer is defined according to the terms established by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). A decision support systems (DSS) is presented, which makes use of a stochastic inverse model (GC method) and geostatistical approaches to calibrate equally likely realizations of hydraulic conductivity (K) fields for a particular case study. These K fields are conditional to available field data, including hard and soft information. Then, different future scenarios of groundwater pumping strategies are generated, based on historical information and WFD standards, and simulated for each one of the equally likely K fields. The future scenarios lead to different environmental impacts and levels of socioeconomic development of the region and, hence, to a different degree of acceptance among stakeholders. We have identified the different stakeholders implied in the decision-making process, the objectives pursued and the alternative actions that should be considered by stakeholders in a public participation project (PPP). The MonteCarlo simulation provides a highly effective way for uncertainty assessment and allows presenting the results in a simple and understandable way even for non-experts stakeholders. The methodology has been successfully applied to a real case study and lays the foundations to performa PPP and stakeholders' involvement in a decisionmaking process as required by the WFD. The results of the methodology can help the decision-making process to come up with the best policies and regulations for a groundwater system under uncertainty in groundwater parameters and management strategies and involving stakeholders with conflicting interests.Llopis Albert, C.; Palacios Marqués, D.; Merigó -Lindahl, JM. (2016). Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling. Environmental Earth Sciences. 75(19):1-11. doi:10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yS1117519Arhonditsis GB, Perhar G, Zhang W, Massos E, Shi M, Das A (2008) Addressing equifinality and uncertainty in eutrophication models. Water Resour Res 44:W01420. doi: 10.1029/2007WR005862Capilla JE, Llopis-Albert C (2009) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. 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Comput Geosci 16(4):395–440Harbaugh AW, Banta ER, Hill MC and McDonald MG (2000) MODFLOW- 2000, The US geological survey modular groundwater model-user guide to modularization concepts and the groundwater flow process. US Geol. Surv. Open-File Rep 00–92, 12Hu LY (2000) Gradual deformation and iterative calibration of Gaussian related stochastic models. Math Geol 32(1):87–108Jagelke J, Barthel R (2005) Conceptualization and implementation of a regional groundwater model for the Neckar catchment in the framework of an integrated regional model. Adv Geosci 5:105–111Llopis-Albert C (2008) Stochastic inverse modeling conditional to flow, mass transport and secondary information. Universitat Politècnica de València, València. ISBN 978-84-691-9796-7Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009a) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Demonstration on a synthetic aquifer. J Hydrol 371:53–55. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.014Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009b) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Application to the macrodispersion experiment (MADE-2) site, on Columbus air force base in Mississippi (USA). J Hydrol 371:75–84. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.016Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010a) Stochastic simulation of non-gaussian 3D conductivity fields in a fractured medium with multiple statistical populations: a case study. J Hydrol Eng 15(7):554–566. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000214Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010b) Stochastic inverse modeling of hydraulic conductivity fields taking into account independent stochastic structures: a 3D case study. J Hydrol 391:277–288. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.028Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez D (2014) Discussion about the validity of sharp-interface models to deal with seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. Hydrol Process 28(10):3642–3654Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez D (2015) Using MODFLOW code to approach transient hydraulic head with a sharp-interface solution. Hydrol Process 29(8):2052–2064. doi: 10.1002/hyp.10354Llopis-Albert C, Palacios-Marqués D, Merigó JM (2014) A coupled stochastic inverse-management framework for dealing with nonpoint agriculture pollution under groundwater parameter uncertainty. J Hydrol 511:10–16. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.021Llopis-Albert C, Merigó JM, Palacios-Marqués D (2015) Structure adaptation in stochastic inverse methods for integrating information. Water Resour Manage 29(1):95–107. doi: 10.1007/s11269-014-0829-2Llopis-Albert C, Merigó JM, Xu Y (2016) A coupled stochastic inverse/sharp interface seawater intrusion approach for coastal aquifers under groundwater parameter uncertainty. J Hydrol 540:774–783. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.065McDonald MG and Harbaugh AW (1988) A modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater flow model. 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Effectiveness of a structured motivational intervention including smoking cessation advice and spirometry information in the primary care setting: the ESPITAP study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is current controversy about the efficacy of smoking cessation interventions that are based on information obtained by spirometry. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness in the primary care setting of structured motivational intervention to achieve smoking cessation, compared with usual clinical practice.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Design</p> <p>Multicentre randomized clinical trial with an intervention and a control group.</p> <p>Setting</p> <p>12 primary care centres in the province of Tarragona (Spain).</p> <p>Subjects of study</p> <p>600 current smokers aged between 35 and 70 years with a cumulative habit of more than 10 packs of cigarettes per year, attended in primary care for any reason and who did not meet any of the exclusion criteria for the study, randomly assigned to structured intervention or standard clinical attention.</p> <p>Intervention</p> <p>Usual advice to quit smoking by a general practitioner as well as a 20-minute personalized visit to provide detailed information about spirometry results, during which FEV1, FVC, FEF 25-75% and PEF measurements were discussed and interpreted in terms of theoretical values. Additional information included the lung age index (defined as the average age of a non-smoker with the same FEV1 as the study participant), comparing this with the chronological age to illustrate the pulmonary deterioration that results from smoking.</p> <p>Measurements</p> <p>Spirometry during the initial visit. Structured interview questionnaire administered at the primary care centre at the initial visit and at 12-month follow-up. Telephone follow-up interview at 6 months. At 12-month follow-up, expired CO was measured in patients who claimed to have quit smoking.</p> <p>Main variables</p> <p>Smoking cessation at 12 months.</p> <p>Analysis</p> <p>Data will be analyzed on the basis of "intention to treat" and the unit of analysis will be the individual smoker.</p> <p>Expected results</p> <p>Among active smokers treated in primary care we anticipate significantly higher smoking cessation in the intervention group than in the control group.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Application of a motivational intervention based on structured information about spirometry results, improved abstinence rates among smokers seen in actual clinical practice conditions in primary care.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrial.gov, number <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01194596">NCT01194596</a>.</p

Glutathione and its dependent enzymes' modulatory responses to toxic metals and metalloids in fish: a review

Toxic metals and metalloid are being rapidly added from multiple pathways to aquatic ecosystem and causing severe threats to inhabiting fauna including fish. Being common in all the type of aquatic ecosystems such as freshwater, marine and brackish water fish are the first to get prone to toxic metals and metalloids. In addition to a number of physiological/biochemical alterations, toxic metals and metalloids cause enhanced generation of varied reactive oxygen species (ROS) ultimately leading to a situ- ation called oxidative stress. However, as an important com- ponent of antioxidant defence system in fish, the tripeptide glutathione (GSH) directly or indirectly regulates the scav- enging of ROS and their reaction products. Additionally, several other GSH-associated enzymes such as GSH reduc- tase (GR, EC 1.6.4.2), GSH peroxidase (EC 1.11.1.9), and GSH sulfotransferase (glutathione-S-transferase (GST), EC 2.5.1.18) cumulatively protect fish against ROS and their reaction products accrued anomalies under toxic metals and metalloids stress conditions. The current review highlights recent research findings on the modulation of GSH, its redox couple (reduced glutathione/oxidised glutathione), and other GSH-related enzymes (GR, glutathione peroxidase, GST) involved in the detoxification of harmful ROS and their reaction products in toxic metals and metalloids-exposed fish

The clonal origin and clonal evolution of epithelial tumours

While the origin of tumours, whether from one cell or many, has been a source of fascination for experimental oncologists for some time, in recent years there has been a veritable explosion of information about the clonal architecture of tumours and their antecedents, stimulated, in the main, by the ready accessibility of new molecular techniques. While most of these new results have apparently confirmed the monoclonal origin of human epithelial (and other) tumours, there are a significant number of studies in which this conclusion just cannot be made. Moreover, analysis of many articles show that the potential impact of such considerations as patch size and clonal evolution on determinations of clonality have largely been ignored, with the result that a number of these studies are confounded. However, the clonal architecture of preneoplastic lesions provide some interesting insights — many lesions which might have been hitherto regarded as hyperplasias are apparently clonal in derivation. If this is indeed true, it calls into some question our hopeful corollary that a monoclonal origin presages a neoplastic habitus. Finally, it is clear, for many reasons, that methods of analysis which involve the disaggregation of tissues, albeit microdissected, are far from ideal and we should be putting more effort into techniques where the clonal architecture of normal tissues, preneoplastic and preinvasive lesions and their derivative tumours can be directly visualized in situ