An evaluation of culture results during treatment for tuberculosis as surrogate endpoints for treatment failure and relapse.

It is widely acknowledged that new regimens are urgently needed for the treatment of tuberculosis. The primary endpoint in the Phase III trials is a composite outcome of failure at the end of treatment or relapse after stopping treatment. Such trials are usually both long and expensive. Valid surrogate endpoints measured during or at the end of treatment could dramatically reduce both the time and cost of assessing the effectiveness of new regimens. The objective of this study was to evaluate sputum culture results on solid media during treatment as surrogate endpoints for poor outcome. Data were obtained from twelve randomised controlled trials conducted by the British Medical Research Council in the 1970s and 80s in East Africa and East Asia, consisting of 6974 participants and 49 different treatment regimens. The month two culture result was shown to be a poor surrogate in East Africa but a good surrogate in Hong Kong. In contrast, the month three culture was a good surrogate in trials conducted in East Africa but not in Hong Kong. As well as differences in location, ethnicity and probable strain of Mycobacteria tuberculosis, Hong Kong trials more often evaluated regimens with rifampicin throughout and intermittent regimens, and patients in East African trials more often presented with extensive cavitation and were slower to convert to culture negative during treatment. An endpoint that is a summary measure of the longitudinal profile of culture results over time or that is able to detect the presence of M. tuberculosis later in treatment is more likely to be a better endpoint for a phase II trial than a culture result at a single time point and may prove to be an acceptable surrogate. More data are needed before any endpoint can be used as a surrogate in a confirmatory phase III trial

Non-inferiority trials: are they inferior? A systematic review of reporting in major medical journals.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the adequacy of reporting of non-inferiority trials alongside the consistency and utility of current recommended analyses and guidelines. DESIGN: Review of randomised clinical trials that used a non-inferiority design published between January 2010 and May 2015 in medical journals that had an impact factor >10 (JAMA Internal Medicine, Archives Internal Medicine, PLOS Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, JAMA, Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine). DATA SOURCES: Ovid (MEDLINE). METHODS: We searched for non-inferiority trials and assessed the following: choice of non-inferiority margin and justification of margin; power and significance level for sample size; patient population used and how this was defined; any missing data methods used and assumptions declared and any sensitivity analyses used. RESULTS: A total of 168 trial publications were included. Most trials concluded non-inferiority (132; 79%). The non-inferiority margin was reported for 98% (164), but less than half reported any justification for the margin (77; 46%). While most chose two different analyses (91; 54%) the most common being intention-to-treat (ITT) or modified ITT and per-protocol, a large number of articles only chose to conduct and report one analysis (65; 39%), most commonly the ITT analysis. There was lack of clarity or inconsistency between the type I error rate and corresponding CIs for 73 (43%) articles. Missing data were rarely considered with (99; 59%) not declaring whether imputation techniques were used. CONCLUSIONS: Reporting and conduct of non-inferiority trials is inconsistent and does not follow the recommendations in available statistical guidelines, which are not wholly consistent themselves. Authors should clearly describe the methods used and provide clear descriptions of and justifications for their design and primary analysis. Failure to do this risks misleading conclusions being drawn, with consequent effects on clinical practice

Investigating the missing data mechanism in quality of life outcomes: a comparison of approaches

Background: Missing data is classified as missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR) or missing not at random (MNAR). Knowing the mechanism is useful in identifying the most appropriate analysis. The first aim was to compare different methods for identifying this missing data mechanism to determine if they gave consistent conclusions. Secondly, to investigate whether the reminder-response data can be utilised to help identify the missing data mechanism. Methods: Five clinical trial datasets that employed a reminder system at follow-up were used. Some quality of life questionnaires were initially missing, but later recovered through reminders. Four methods of determining the missing data mechanism were applied. Two response data scenarios were considered. Firstly, immediate data only; secondly, all observed responses (including reminder-response). Results: In three of five trials the hypothesis tests found evidence against the MCAR assumption. Logistic regression suggested MAR, but was able to use the reminder-collected data to highlight potential MNAR data in two trials. Conclusion: The four methods were consistent in determining the missingness mechanism. One hypothesis test was preferred as it is applicable with intermittent missingness. Some inconsistencies between the two data scenarios were found. Ignoring the reminder data could potentially give a distorted view of the missingness mechanism. Utilising reminder data allowed the possibility of MNAR to be considered.The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorate. Research Training Fellowship (CZF/1/31

Synchrotron analysis of toughness anomalies in nanostructured bainite

High-resolution synchrotron X-ray diffraction has been used to characterise the notch root regions of Charpy impact test specimens of a superbainitic steel, both before and after loading. The changes in the volume fraction of austenite induced by the application of a three-point-bending load were quantified. Analysis of diffraction peak shifts revealed the extent of residual tensile and compressive strains present due to both machining and an applied load. The results lend support to the hypothesis that the comparatively low energies absorbed during Charpy impact testing of superbainitic steels, < 7 J, are due to the formation of stress-induced martensite at the notch root, prior to crack initiation.The authors are grateful to Prakash Srirangam Venkata and Bernard Ennis for their valuable contribution to the synchrotron work; to Diamond Light Source (Oxford) for access to the synchrotron facilities (under experiment EE8564); to Tata Steel UK and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council of the UK for financial support (under EP/H500375/1 and EP/I02249X/1).This is the final version of the article. It was first available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actamat.2015.11.02

Characterisation of the genomic landscape of CRLF2-rearranged acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Deregulated expression of the type I cytokine receptor, CRLF2, is observed in 5–15% of precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (B-ALL). We aimed to determine the clinical and genetic landscape of those with IGH-CRLF2 or P2RY8-CRLF2 (CRLF2-r) using multiple genomic approaches. Clinical and demographic features of CRLF2-r patients were characteristic of B-ALL. Patients with IGH-CRLF2 were older (14 y vs. 4 y, P < .001), while the incidence of CRLF2-r among Down syndrome patients was high (50/161, 31%). CRLF2-r co-occurred with primary chromosomal rearrangements but the majority (111/161, 69%) had B-other ALL. Copy number alteration (CNA) profiles were similar to B-other ALL, although CRLF2-r patients harbored higher frequencies of IKZF1 (60/138, 43% vs. 77/1351, 24%) and BTG1 deletions (20/138, 15% vs. 3/1351, 1%). There were significant differences in CNA profiles between IGH-CRLF2 and P2RY8-CRLF2 patients: IKZF1 (25/35, 71% vs. 36/108, 33%, P < .001), BTG1 (11/35, 31% vs. 10/108, 9%, P =.004), and ADD3 deletions (9/19, 47% vs. 5/38, 13%, P =.008). A novel gene fusion, USP9X-DDX3X, was discovered in 10/54 (19%) of patients. Pathway analysis of the mutational profile revealed novel involvement for focal adhesion. Although the functional relevance of many of these abnormalities are unknown, they likely activate additional pathways, which may represent novel therapeutic targets

Use of low-dose oral theophylline as an adjunct to inhaled corticosteroids in preventing exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with high morbidity, mortality, and health-care costs. An incomplete response to the anti-inflammatory effects of inhaled corticosteroids is present in COPD. Preclinical work indicates that 'low dose' theophylline improves steroid responsiveness. The Theophylline With Inhaled Corticosteroids (TWICS) trial investigates whether the addition of 'low dose' theophylline to inhaled corticosteroids has clinical and cost-effective benefits in COPD. METHOD/DESIGN: TWICS is a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial conducted in primary and secondary care sites in the UK. The inclusion criteria are the following: an established predominant respiratory diagnosis of COPD (post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in first second/forced vital capacity [FEV1/FVC] of less than 0.7), age of at least 40 years, smoking history of at least 10 pack-years, current inhaled corticosteroid use, and history of at least two exacerbations requiring treatment with antibiotics or oral corticosteroids in the previous year. A computerised randomisation system will stratify 1424 participants by region and recruitment setting (primary and secondary) and then randomly assign with equal probability to intervention or control arms. Participants will receive either 'low dose' theophylline (Uniphyllin MR 200 mg tablets) or placebo for 52 weeks. Dosing is based on pharmacokinetic modelling to achieve a steady-state serum theophylline of 1-5 mg/l. A dose of theophylline MR 200 mg once daily (or placebo once daily) will be taken by participants who do not smoke or participants who smoke but have an ideal body weight (IBW) of not more than 60 kg. A dose of theophylline MR 200 mg twice daily (or placebo twice daily) will be taken by participants who smoke and have an IBW of more than 60 kg. Participants will be reviewed at recruitment and after 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome is the total number of participant-reported COPD exacerbations requiring oral corticosteroids or antibiotics during the 52-week treatment period. DISCUSSION: The demonstration that 'low dose' theophylline increases the efficacy of inhaled corticosteroids in COPD by reducing the incidence of exacerbations is relevant not only to patients and clinicians but also to health-care providers, both in the UK and globally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN27066620 was registered on Sept. 19, 2013, and the first subject was randomly assigned on Feb. 6, 2014

Residual susceptibility to measles among young adults in Victoria, Australia following a national targeted measles-mumps-rubella vaccination campaign

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Past measles immunisation policies in Australia have resulted in a cohort of young adults who have been inadequately vaccinated, but who also have low levels of naturally acquired immunity because immunisation programs have decreased the circulation of wild virus. A measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) immunisation campaign aimed at addressing this susceptibility to measles among young adults was conducted in Australia in 2001–2. By estimating age-specific immunity, we aimed to evaluate the success of this campaign in the state of Victoria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted serosurveys after the young adult MMR program at state and national levels to estimate immunity among young adults born between 1968–82. We compared results of the Victorian (state) surveys with the Victorian component of the national surveys and compared both surveys with surveys conducted before the campaign. We also reviewed all laboratory confirmed measles cases in Victoria between 2000–4.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The Victorian state serosurveys indicated no significant change in immunity of the cohort following the young adult MMR campaign (83.9% immune pre and 85.5% immune post campaign) while the Victorian component of the national serosurvey indicated a significant decline in immunity (91.0% to 84.2%; p = 0.006). Both surveys indicated about 15% susceptibility to measles among young Victorian adults after the campaign. Measles outbreaks in Victoria between 2000–4 confirmed the susceptibility of young adults. Outbreaks involved a median of 2.5 cases with a median age of 24.5 years.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In Victoria, the young adult MMR program appears to have had no effect on residual susceptibility to measles among the 1968–82 birth cohort. Young adults in Victoria, as in other countries where past immunisation policies have left a residual susceptible cohort, represent a potential problem for the maintenance of measles elimination.</p

Two novel human cytomegalovirus NK cell evasion functions target MICA for lysosomal degradation

NKG2D plays a major role in controlling immune responses through the regulation of natural killer (NK) cells, αβ and γδ T-cell function. This activating receptor recognizes eight distinct ligands (the MHC Class I polypeptide-related sequences (MIC) A andB, and UL16-binding proteins (ULBP)1–6) induced by cellular stress to promote recognition cells perturbed by malignant transformation or microbial infection. Studies into human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) have aided both the identification and characterization of NKG2D ligands (NKG2DLs). HCMV immediate early (IE) gene up regulates NKGDLs, and we now describe the differential activation of ULBP2 and MICA/B by IE1 and IE2 respectively. Despite activation by IE functions, HCMV effectively suppressed cell surface expression of NKGDLs through both the early and late phases of infection. The immune evasion functions UL16, UL142, and microRNA(miR)-UL112 are known to target NKG2DLs. While infection with a UL16 deletion mutant caused the expected increase in MICB and ULBP2 cell surface expression, deletion of UL142 did not have a similar impact on its target, MICA. We therefore performed a systematic screen of the viral genome to search of addition functions that targeted MICA. US18 and US20 were identified as novel NK cell evasion functions capable of acting independently to promote MICA degradation by lysosomal degradation. The most dramatic effect on MICA expression was achieved when US18 and US20 acted in concert. US18 and US20 are the first members of the US12 gene family to have been assigned a function. The US12 family has 10 members encoded sequentially through US12–US21; a genetic arrangement, which is suggestive of an ‘accordion’ expansion of an ancestral gene in response to a selective pressure. This expansion must have be an ancient event as the whole family is conserved across simian cytomegaloviruses from old world monkeys. The evolutionary benefit bestowed by the combinatorial effect of US18 and US20 on MICA may have contributed to sustaining the US12 gene family

'Gain with no pain’: anabolic-androgenic steroids trafficking in the UK

Anabolic-androgenic steroids are performance and image enhancing drugs (PIED) that can improve endurance and athletic performance, reduce body fat and stimulate muscle growth. The use of steroids has been studied extensively in the medical and psychological literature, as well as in the sociology of sport, health and masculinity. From the late 2000s, the worldwide trade in steroids increased significantly. However, trafficking in steroids remains a largely under-researched criminological phenomenon with a few notable exceptions. Currently in the UK there are only small and fragmented pieces of information available relating to steroids trafficking in autobiographical accounts of professional criminals. Drawing on original empirical data, the purpose of this article is to provide an account of the social organization of the steroids trafficking business in the UK. The trade in steroids is decentralized, highly flexible with no hierarchies, and open to anyone willing to either order the merchandise online or travel to producing countries and obtain steroids in bulk from legitimate manufacturers. The patterns of trafficking of this specific type of substance are patently conditioned by its embeddedness in the gym/bodybuilding scene and this greatly affects relations between actors in the business. In the steroids market, one typically encounters a multitude of individuals likely to drift between legality and illegality, online and offline, use and supply

Tuberculosis Prevention in South Africa

Background South Africa has one of the highest per capita rates of tuberculosis (TB) incidence in the world. In 2012, the South African government produced a National Strategic Plan (NSP) to control the spread of TB with the ambitious aim of zero new TB infections and deaths by 2032, and a halving of the 2012 rates by 2016. Methods We used a transmission model to investigate whether the NSP targets could be reached if immediate scale up of control methods had happened in 2014. We explored the potential impact of four intervention portfolios; 1) “NSP” represents the NSP strategy, 2) “WHO” investigates increasing antiretroviral therapy eligibility, 3) “Novel Strategies” considers new isoniazid preventive therapy strategies and HIV “Universal Test and Treat” and 4) “Optimised” contains the most effective interventions. Findings We find that even with this scale-up, the NSP targets are unlikely to be achieved. The portfolio that achieved the greatest impact was “Optimised”, followed closely by “NSP”. The “WHO” and “Novel Strategies” had little impact on TB incidence by 2050. Of the individual interventions explored, the most effective were active case finding and reductions in pre-treatment loss to follow up which would have a large impact on TB burden. Conclusion Use of existing control strategies has the potential to have a large impact on TB disease burden in South Africa. However, our results suggest that the South African TB targets are unlikely to be reached without new technologies. Despite this, TB incidence could be dramatically reduced by finding and starting more TB cases on treatment