CSM-349 - Benford's Law: An Empirical Investigation and a Novel Explanation

This report describes an investigation into Benford?s Law for the distribution of leading digits in real data sets. A large number of such data sets have been examined and it was found that only a small fraction of them conform to the law. Three classes of mathematical model of processes that might account for such a leading digit distribution have also been investigated. We found that based on the notion of taking the product of many random factors the most credible. This led to the identification of a class of lognormal distributions, those whose shape parameter exceeds 1, which satisfy Benford?s Law. This in turn led us to a novel explanation for the law: that it is fundamentally a consequence of the fact that many physical quantities cannot meaningfully take negative values. This enabled us to develop a simple set of rules for determining whether a given data set is likely to conform to Benford?s Law. Our explanation has an important advantage over previous attempts to account for the law: it also explains which data sets will not have logarithmically distributed leading digits. Some techniques for generating data that satisfy Benford?s law are described and the report concludes with a summary and a discussion of the practical implications

The incidence and clinical burden of respiratory syncytial virus disease identified through hospital outpatient presentations in Kenyan children

There is little information that describe the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated disease in the tropical African outpatient setting. Methods We studied a systematic sample of children aged <5 years presenting to a rural district hospital in Kenya with acute respiratory infection (ARI) between May 2002 and April 2004. We collected clinical data and screened nasal wash samples for RSV antigen by immunofluorescence. We used a linked demographic surveillance system to estimate disease incidence. Results Among 2143 children tested, 166 (8%) were RSV positive (6% among children with upper respiratory tract infection and 12% among children with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). RSV was more likely in LRTI than URTI (p<0.001). 51% of RSV cases were aged 1 year or over. RSV cases represented 3.4% of hospital outpatient presentations. Relative to RSV negative cases, RSV positive cases were more likely to have crackles (RR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.34–1.97), nasal flaring (RR = 2.66; 95% CI 1.40–5.04), in-drawing (RR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.47–3.40), fast breathing for age (RR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.03–1.75) and fever (RR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.33–1.80). The estimated incidence of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTI, per 100,000 child years, among those aged <5 years was 767 and 283, respectively. Conclusion The burden of childhood RSV-associated URTI and LRTI presenting to outpatients in this setting is considerable. The clinical features of cases associated with an RSV infection were more severe than cases without an RSV diagnosis

Moving from information and collaboration to action: report from the 3rd International Dog Health Workshop, Paris in April 2017

Abstract Background Breed-related health problems in dogs have received increased focus over the last decade. Responsibility for causing and/or solving these problems has been variously directed towards dog breeders and kennel clubs, the veterinary profession, welfare scientists, owners, regulators, insurance companies and the media. In reality, all these stakeholders are likely to share some responsibility and optimal progress on resolving these challenges requires all key stakeholders to work together. The International Partnership for Dogs (IPFD), together with an alternating host organization, holds biennial meetings called the International Dog Health Workshops (IDHW). The Société Centrale Canine (French Kennel Club) hosted the 3rd IDHW, in Paris, in April, 2017. These meetings bring together a wide range of stakeholders in dog health, science and welfare to improve international sharing of information and resources, to provide a forum for ongoing collaboration, and to identify specific needs and actions to improve health, well-being and welfare in dogs. Results The workshop included 140 participants from 23 countries and was structured around six important issues facing those who work to improve dog health. These included individualized breed-specific strategies for health and breeding, extreme conformations, education and communication in relation to antimicrobial resistance, behavior and welfare, genetic testing and population-based evidence. A number of exciting actions were agreed during the meeting. These included setting up working groups to create tools to help breed clubs accelerate the implementation of breed-health strategies, review aspects of extreme conformation and share useful information on behavior. The meeting also heralded the development of an online resource of relevant information describing quality measures for DNA testing. A demand for more and better data and evidence was a recurring message stressed across all themes. Conclusions The meeting confirmed the benefits from inclusion of a diverse range of stakeholders who all play relevant and collaborative parts to improve future canine health. Firm actions were set for progress towards improving breed-related welfare. The next international workshop will be in the UK in 2019 and will be organized by the UK Kennel Club

Relationship between cardiac diffusion tensor imaging parameters and anthropometrics in healthy volunteers

Background: In vivo cardiac diffusion tensor imaging (cDTI) is uniquely capable of interrogating laminar myocardial dynamics non-invasively. A comprehensive dataset of quantative parameters and comparison with subject anthropometrics is required. Methods: cDTI was performed at 3T with a diffusion weighted STEAM sequence. Data was acquired from the mid left ventricle in 43 subjects during the systolic and diastolic pauses. Global and regional values were determined for fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), helix angle gradient (HAg, degrees/%depth) and the secondary eigenvector angulation (E2A). Regression analysis was performed between global values and subject anthropometrics. Results: All cDTI parameters displayed regional heterogeneity. The RR interval had a significant, but clinically small effect on systolic values for FA, HAg and E2A. Male sex and increasing left ventricular end diastolic volume were associated with increased systolic HAg. Diastolic HAg and systolic E2A were both directly related to left ventricular mass and body surface area. There was an inverse relationship between E2A mobility and both age and ejection fraction. Conclusions: Future interpretations of quantitative cDTI data should take into account anthropometric variations observed with patient age, body surface area and left ventricular measurements. Further work determining the impact of technical factors such as strain and SNR is required

WiseEye: next generation expandable and programmable camera trap platform for wildlife research

Funding: The work was supported by the RCUK Digital Economy programme to the dot.rural Digital Economy Hub; award reference: EP/G066051/1. The work of S. Newey and RJI was part funded by the Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS). Details published as an Open Source Toolkit, PLOS Journals at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0169758Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Mathematical modeling of the metastatic process

Mathematical modeling in cancer has been growing in popularity and impact since its inception in 1932. The first theoretical mathematical modeling in cancer research was focused on understanding tumor growth laws and has grown to include the competition between healthy and normal tissue, carcinogenesis, therapy and metastasis. It is the latter topic, metastasis, on which we will focus this short review, specifically discussing various computational and mathematical models of different portions of the metastatic process, including: the emergence of the metastatic phenotype, the timing and size distribution of metastases, the factors that influence the dormancy of micrometastases and patterns of spread from a given primary tumor.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures, Revie

Gut microbiota-derived propionate reduces cancer cell proliferation in the liver

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Frontal lobe changes occur early in the course of affective disorders in young people

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>More severe and persistent forms of affective disorders are accompanied by grey matter loss in key frontal and temporal structures. It is unclear whether such changes precede the onset of illness, occur early in the course or develop gradually with persistence or recurrence of illness. A total of 47 young people presenting with admixtures of depressive and psychotic symptoms were recruited from specialist early intervention services along with 33 age matched healthy control subjects. All participants underwent magnetic resonance imaging and patients were rated clinically as to current stage of illness. Twenty-three patients were identified as being at an early 'attenuated syndrome' stage, while the remaining were rated as having already reached the 'discrete disorder' or 'persistent or recurrent illness' stage. Contrasts were carried out between controls subjects and patients cohorts with attenuated syndromes and discrete disorders, separately.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The patients that were identified as having a discrete or persisting disorder demonstrated decreased grey matter volumes within distributed frontal brain regions when contrasted to both the control subjects as well as those patients in the attenuated syndrome stage. Overall, patients who were diagnosed as more advanced in terms of the clinical stage of their illness, exhibited the greatest grey matter volume loss of all groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study suggests that, in terms of frontal grey matter changes, a major transition point may occur in the course of affective illness between early attenuated syndromes and later discrete illness stages.</p