Revisiting the effect of income on health in Europe : evidence from the 8th round of the European social survey

First published online: February 2020This study provides new evidence about the effects of income on population health. To do so, our first research question controls for the absolute income hypothesis : Has the recent deterioration of individual income had as a result a lower health status in population across European countries? : We assume, as the bulk of the associated studies have found, that the lower the income of an individual, the lower his/her health status. Our second research objective is to examine the validity of the relative income hypothesis. To shed light on this issue, we test two different questions : What is the relationship between an individual's health status and a country's wealth and how self-rated health is associated with the degree of income inequality in a society? : We expect that the population in wealthier countries report higher health status and individuals who live in countries with higher income inequalities report lower health status. By employing a multilevel binomial model and treating data from the latest European Social Survey Round 8 (2016/2017) from 23 countries in Europe, we have found strong evidence in favor of the above-mentioned hypotheses

Conflict Resilience

Although large-scale wars and interstate conflicts have almost disappeared, intrastate conflicts remain widespread and result in a high number of victims. During the last ten years, the number of fatalities was substantially higher than in the previous decade. Though these conflicts take place outside the borders of the EU, they can generate important direct and indirect effects. Moreover, they are connected to climate change, can lead to various disasters, geopolitical effects, or material supply disruptions. The concept of resilience has recently gained ground as a framework for addressing contemporary global threats. It has also become the key principle in the EU’s external action. One of its key building blocks is the modelling and monitoring of conflict risk to allow early action. Conflict resilience refers to the capacity of a state to resist a drift towards violence contrary to the structural conditions prevailing (pre-conflict resilience). It also includes the response of a state in the presence of a conflict (post-conflict resilience). Evaluating the pre-conflict resilience of states can provide insights into conflict aversion or enable a warning for the eruption of violence. On the other hand, the study of postconflict resilience may unveil the adaptive and transformative mechanisms that can be followed by other war-torn countries. Climate change and conflicts are closely related. For example, climate change exacerbates current conflict drivers like food insecurity, competition for water and land resources, poverty and internal displacement of people. Adaptation and mitigation policies may lead to new regulations or infrastructures (like new hydropower reservoirs) which can generate tensions and eventually conflicts. Finally, conflict-torn countries are unable to invest in adaptation strategies, which makes them even more vulnerable to climate change effects.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

The Global Conflict Risk Index: Artificial intelligence for conflict prevention

The Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI), which was designed by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), is the quantitative starting point of the EU’s conflict Early Warning System. Taking into consideration the needs of policy-makers to prioritize actions towards conflict prevention, the GCRI expresses the statistical risk of violent conflict in a given country in the upcoming one to four years. It is based on open source data and grounded in the assumption that the occurrence of conflict is linked to structural conditions, which are used to compute the probability and intensity of conflicts. While the initial GCRI model was estimated by means of linear and logistic regression models, this report presents a new GCRI model based on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) random forest (RF) approach. The models’ hyperparameters are optimized using a ten-fold cross validation. Overall, it is demonstrated that the random forest GCRI models are internally stable, not overfitting, and have a good predictive power. The precision and accuracy metrics are above 98%, both for the national power and subnational power conflict models. The AI GCRI, as a supplementary modelling method for the European conflict prevention policy agenda, is scientifically robust as a baseline quantitative evaluation of armed conflict risk additional to the linear and logistic regression GCRI.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Dynamic Global Conflict Risk Index

This report presents a dynamic model of the Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI), a conflict risk model supporting the design of European Union’s (EU) conflict prevention strategies developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission (EC) in collaboration with an expert panel of researchers and policy-makers. While most studies as well as the regression GCRI measure conflict intensity by counting the number of causalities, the proposed dynamic GCRI integrates and identifies every stage of the conflict development or de-escalation in its entire complexity. The emergence of conflict related event data sets offers researchers new ways to quantify and predict conflicts through big data. Using country-level actor-based event data sets that signal potential triggers to violent conflict such as demonstrations, strikes, or elections-related violence, the model aims at estimating the occurrence of material conflict events, under the assumption that an increase in material conflict events goes along with a decrease in material and verbal cooperation. Three potential datasets are tested in this report following a political event coding classification: (i) the Global Data on Events Location and Tone (GDELT) project, (ii) the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) Dataverse dataset and (iii) the Phoenix - Open Event Data Alliance (OEDA)-Phoenix Dataset. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) methodology adopted to model the dynamic GCRI is built upon a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) Cell Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). These models are well-suited to classify, process and make predictions based on time series data and forecast near future events. Besides this AI model, we have set up an early warning alarm system to signal abnormal social unrest upheavals. The dynamic GCRI, through the AI and early warning alarm, seems to be able to predict the materialization of a conflict on a monthly basis. This new tool gives policy makers the possibility to observe the situation in a country on a monthly base, taking into consideration both the current and the predicted available information, and to implement preventive actions more rapidly to mitigate conflict exacerbations at an earlier stage of the conflict development cycle.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Applications of nuclear symmetry energy in the structure of finite nuclei and neutron stars

In the first part of the present work, we employ a variational method, in the framework of the Thomas-Fermi approximation, to study the effect of the symmetry energy on the neutron skin thickness and the symmetry energy coefficients of various neutron rich nuclei. We confirm, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the strong dependence of the symmetry energy on the various isovector properties for the relevant nuclei, using possible constraints between the slope and the value of the symmetry energy at the saturation density. We find that the neutron skin thickness is very sensitive to L i.e. it increases rapidly with L. We conclude that the present approximation supports a stronger sensitivity of the neutron skin thickness on L. However, constraining the total binding energy being close to the experimental one, we see that our results are very close to the mentioned empirical formula. Our findings, from the present study, show that the experimental knowledge of the symmetry energy at the saturation density J will impose, via the values of the symmetry coefficient, strong constraints on L. In the second part we focus our interest on the gravitational radiation which has been proposed, as an explanation for the observed relatively low spin frequencies of young neutron stars and of accreting neutron stars in low-mass X-ray binaries as well. In the present work, we studied the effects of the neutron star equation of state on the r-mode instability window of rotating neutron stars. Firstly, we employed a set of analytical solution of the TOV equations. We tried to clarify the effects of the bulk neutron star properties on the r-mode instability window. We found that the critical angular velocity depends mainly on the neutron star radius. Secondly, we studied the effect of the elasticity of the crust, via to the slippage factor S and also the effect of the nuclear equation of state, via the slope parameter L, on the instability window. We found that the crust effects are more pronounced, compared to those originating from the EOS. Finally, we studied the effects of the mutual friction on the instability window and discussed the results in comparison with previous similar studies. The effect of the symmetry energy, via L, appears to be comparatively small as that of the dissipation mechanisms, but not negligible. The variation in parameter L, leads to differentiation in the formation of the instability window, while the critical temperature vary significantly with variation in the values of L. Upcoming detection of gravitational waves is expected to illuminate aspects of the instability window and lead to constraints on the symmetry energy and thus lead to better understanding of the equation of state of nuclear matter at high densities.Το πρώτος μέρος της διατριβής αφορά στη συστηματική μελέτη της επίδρασης της ενέργειας συμμετρίας στις ιδιότητες των πυρήνων, που σχετίζονται με την isospin ασυμμετρία του συστήματος και παράλληλα προχωρούμε σε εκτιμήσεις για την επιβολή περιορισμών στις τιμές της. Επιβεβαιώνεται ποσοτικά και ποιοτικά η επίδραση της ενέργειας συμμετρίας στις παραπάνω ιδιότητες, γεγονός που καθιστά αυτά τα μεγέθη ικανά να επιβάλουν περιορισμούς στην τιμή της. Συγκρίσεις με υπολογισμούς που προκύπτουν από διαφορετικά μοντέλα φανερώνουν ότι ποιοτικά υπάρχει σύγκλιση, με την παρούσα εργασία να υποδεικνύει μεγαλύτερη ευαίσθησία του δR στις μεταβολές της παραμέτρου L. Εάν εστιάσουμε στις τιμές των παραμέτρων, οδηγούμαστε στην διαπίστωση ότι η γνώση της τιμή της J περιορίζει σημαντικά το εύρος τιμών της L, ενώ συγκεκριμένα ζεύγη τιμών αναπαράγουν ικανοποιητικά πειραματικά δεδομένα που αφορούν στα ισότοπα. Τέλος φαίνεται η εξάρτηση των ιδιοτήτων από τον παράγοντα ασυμμετρίας να είναι γραμμική για όλα τα ισότοπα, κάτι που συνάδει με άλλες μελέτες. Στο δεύτερο μέρος της διατριβής εξετάζουμε κατά πόσο η εκπομπή βαρυτικών κυμάτων ως μηχανισμός ενίσχυσης των r-τρόπων ταλάντωσης από έναν αστέρα νετρονίων μπορεί να επιβάλει περιορισμούς στην ενέργειας συμμετρίας. Ο μηχανισμός της εκπομπής βαρυτικής ακτινοβολίας οδηγεί τις ταλαντώσεις σε αστάθεια. Θεωρούμε περιστρεφόμενο αστέρα με ρευστό εσωτερικό και μελετούμε την αστάθεια των r-τρόπων ταλάντωσης, λαμβάνοντας υπόψη τους διάφορους μηχανισμούς απόσβεσής τους. Προκύπτει ότι το παράθυρο αστάθειας εξαρτάται ισχυρά από το μέγεθος του αστέρα. Η επίδραση της μάζας του αστέρα και της κατανομής της πυκνότητας δεν είναι σημαντική. Για τον λόγο αυτόν, επιλέγουμε την αναλυτική λύση Tolman VII για τη συστηματική μελέτη της επίδρασης των μηχανισμών απόσβεσης και της ενέργειας συμμετρίας στο παράθυρο αστάθειας. Εάν θεωρηθεί ότι ο αστέρας περιβάλλεται από στερεή και ελαστική κρούστα, διαπιστώνουμε ότι η επίδραση της κρούστας στο παράθυρο αστάθειας είναι έντονη και έχει ως αποτέλεσμα το σημαντικό περιορισμό της περιοχής του παραθύρου αστάθειας καθώς η κρούστα γίνεται λιγότερο ελαστική. Εάν τελικά λάβουμε υπόψη και επιπλέον μηχανισμό απόσβεσης που οφείλεται στην υπερρευστότητα της ύλης, διαπιστώνουμε ότι η επίδρασή του είναι καθοριστική. Το γεγονός αυτό κάτω από δεδομένες συνθήκες μπορεί να εξηγήσει τα παρατηρησιακά δεδομένα που αφορούν σε γηραιούς και ψυχρούς αστέρες νετρονίων. Η επίδραση της καταστατικής εξίσωσης φαίνεται να είναι συγκριτικά μικρή με αυτή των μηχανισμών απόσβεσης. Το παράθυρο αστάθειας παρουσιάζει εξάρτηση από την ενέργεια συμμετρίας. Η μεταβολή των τιμών της παραμέτρου L οδηγεί σε διαφοροποίηση στη διαμόρφωση του παραθύρου αστάθειας, ενώ οι θερμοκρασίες εισαγωγής στο παράθυρο αστάθειας διαφοροποιούνται σημαντικά με τη μεταβολή της τιμής της παραμέτρου. Η επερχόμενη ανίχνευση των βαρυτικών κυμάτων από συστήματα διπλών αστέρων νετρονίων αναμένεται να φωτίσει πτυχές της μελέτης του παραθύρου αστάθειας και να οδηγήσει σε επιβολή περιορισμών στις τιμές της ενέργειας συμμετρίας οι οποίοι συνεπάγονται την καλύτερη κατανόηση της καταστατικής εξίσωσης της πυρηνικής ύλης στις υψηλές πυκνότητες

The Global Conflict Risk Index : A quantitative tool for policy support on conflict prevention

In an effort to bridge the gap between academic and governmental initiatives on quantitative conflict modelling, this article presents, validates and discusses the Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI), the quantitative starting point of the European Union Conflict Early Warning System. Based on open-source data of five risk areas representing the structural conditions characterising a given country (political, economic, social, environmental and security areas), it evaluates the risk of violent conflict in the next one to four years. Using logistic regression, the GCRI calculates the probability of national and subnational conflict risk. Several model design decisions, including definition of the dependent variable, predictor variable selection, data imputation, and probability threshold definition, are tested and discussed in light of the model's direct application in the EU policy support on conflict prevention. While the GCRI remains firmly rooted by its conception and development in the European conflict prevention policy agenda, it is validated as a scientifically robust and rigorous method for a baseline quantitative evaluation of armed conflict risk. Despite its standard, simple methodology, the model predicts better than six other published quantitative conflict early warning systems for ten out of twelve reported performance metrics. Thereby, this article aims to contribute to a cross-fertilisation of academic and governmental efforts in quantitative conflict risk modelling

Congenital Portosystemic Shunts in Dogs and Cats: Classification, Pathophysiology, Clinical Presentation and Diagnosis

Congenital portosystemic shunts (CPSS) are abnormal vascular communications between the portal and the systemic circulation, bypassing the hepatic parenchyma and resulting in liver hypoplasia and hepatic insufficiency. Such connections develop in utero and persist postnatally. CPSS are among the two most common congenital vascular anomalies of the liver in small animals, along with primary hypoplasia of the portal vein without portal hypertension (PHPV without PH). CPSS can be extrahepatic (ECPSS), most commonly diagnosed in small and toy breed dogs and cats, or intrahepatic (ICPSS), most commonly seen in large breed dogs. Single ECPSS is the most common type encountered in both dogs and cats. Clinical signs of CPSS are non-specific and may wax and wane, while laboratory findings can raise clinical suspicion for CPSS, but they are also not specific. Definitive diagnosis will be established by evaluation of liver function tests, such as determination of fasting plasma ammonia (FA) levels, and pre- and postprandial serum bile acids concentrations, and diagnostic imaging. The purpose of this article is to review the definition, classification, pathogenesis, clinical presentation, and diagnosis of CPSS in dogs and cats, highlighted by the authors’ clinical experience

Acinar cell carcinoma in childhood: A case report of a very rare tumor

Pancreatic tumors are reported rarely in childhood and represent an extremely rare entity in Pediatric Oncology. One of the least common types of pediatric pancreatic tumor is acinar cell carcinoma (ACC). We aim to present a rare case of ACC and the difficulties we faced during diagnosis and treatment