Relationships between the El-Niño Southern Oscillation and spate flows in southern Africa and Australia

International audienceThe flow records of arid zone rivers are characterised by a high degree of seasonal variability, being dominated by long periods of very low or zero flow. Discrete flow events in these rivers are influenced by aseasonal factors such as global climate forcings. The atmospheric circulations of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been shown to influence climate regimes across many parts of the world. Strong teleconnections between changing ENSO regimes and discharges are likely to be observed in highly variable arid zones. In this paper, the influence of ENSO mechanisms on the flow records of two arid zone rivers in each of Australia and Southern Africa are identified. ENSO signals, together with multi-decadal variability in their impact as identified through seasonal values of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index, are shown to influence both the rate of occurrence and the size of discrete flow episodes in these rivers. Keywords: arid zones, streamflow, spates, climate variability, ENSO, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, IP

Chance in Development as a Cause of Variation

Variation is ordinarily considered as due to internal hereditary factors interacting with external environmental factors during development. In experimental work with a parasitic wasp considerable variation has been found in certain pure-bred stocks kept at certain constant environmental conditions. Either at other constant environmental conditions or in other pure-bred stocks this variation does not occur. Variation appearing under uniform conditions of heredity and environment is considered as due to slight irregularities of division and distribution of cells during embryology and to other more or less intangible factors of development. Individual variation resulting from chance in development is on the average predictable, just as is hereditary variation resulting from chance distribution of Mendelian units in gametogenesis and fertilization. It is highly probable that many mental and physical differences in man are due to these intangible factors of development. A knowledge of these factors will be of importance in relation to studies in eugenics such as are being conducted at the Iowa Child Welfare Research Station

Three Different Types of Genetic Sterility in the Parasitic Wasp, Habrobracon

Almost complete sterility may be induced by imperfect fertilization. Resulting male offspring very rarely produce daughters which are almost always sterile. Complete sterility of males due to lack of external genitalia exists in one strain, which is reproduced from sisters and fertile brothers. A previously fertile strain mutated so that females lay inviable eggs. Rarely an egg will hatch and from the resulting insect the strain is perpetuated. Males of this strain are of normal fertility

Thermodynamics of Reissner-Nordstrom-anti-de Sitter black holes in the grand canonical ensemble

The thermodynamical properties of the Reissner-Nordstr\"om-anti-de Sitter black hole in the grand canonical ensemble are investigated using York's formalism. The black hole is enclosed in a cavity with finite radius where the temperature and electrostatic potential are fixed. The boundary conditions allow us to compute the relevant thermodynamical quantities, e.g. thermal energy, entropy and charge. The stability conditions imply that there are thermodynamically stable black hole solutions, under certain conditions. Instantons with negative heat capacity are also found.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, Revtex. Published version. Changes: figures added to tex

Greenhouse gas balance over thaw-freeze cycles in discontinuous zone permafrost

Peat in the discontinuous permafrost zone contains a globally significant reservoir of carbon that has undergone multiple permafrost-thaw cycles since the end of the mid-Holocene (~3700 years before present). Periods of thaw increase C decomposition rates which leads to the release of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere creating potential climate feedback. To determine the magnitude and direction of such feedback, we measured CO2 and CH4 emissions and modeled C accumulation rates and radiative fluxes from measurements of two radioactive tracers with differing lifetimes to describe the C balance of the peatland over multiple permafrost-thaw cycles since the initiation of permafrost at the site. At thaw features, the balance between increased primary production and higher CH4 emission stimulated by warmer temperatures and wetter conditions favors C sequestration and enhanced peat accumulation. Flux measurements suggest that frozen plateaus may intermittently (order of years to decades) act as CO2 sources depending on temperature and net ecosystem respiration rates, but modeling results suggest that—despite brief periods of net C loss to the atmosphere at the initiation of thaw—integrated over millennia, these sites have acted as net C sinks via peat accumulation. In greenhouse gas terms, the transition from frozen permafrost to thawed wetland is accompanied by increasing CO2 uptake that is partially offset by increasing CH4 emissions. In the short-term (decadal time scale) the net effect of this transition is likely enhanced warming via increased radiative C emissions, while in the long-term (centuries) net C deposition provides a negative feedback to climate warming

Added value and cascade effects of inflammatory marker tests in UK primary care: A cohort study from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

This is the final version. Available from Royal College of General Practitioners via the DOI in this record. Background: Inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and plasma viscosity) are commonly used in primary care. Though established for specific diagnostic purposes, there is uncertainty around their utility as a non-specific marker to rule out underlying disease in primary care. Aim: To identify the value of inflammatory marker testing in primary care as a rule-out test, and measure the cascade effects of testing in terms of further blood tests, GP appointments, and referrals. Design and setting: Cohort study of 160 000 patients with inflammatory marker testing in 2014, and 40 000 untested age, sex, and practice-matched controls, using UK primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Method: The primary outcome was incidence of relevant disease, including infections, autoimmune conditions, and cancers, among those with raised versus normal inflammatory markers and untested controls. Process outcomes included rates of GP consultations, blood tests, and referrals in the 6 months after testing. Results: The overall incidence of disease following a raised inflammatory marker was 15%: 6.3% infections, 5.6% autoimmune conditions, 3.7% cancers. Inflammatory markers had an overall sensitivity of <50% for the primary outcome, any relevant disease (defined as any infections, autoimmune conditions, or cancers). For 1000 inflammatory marker tests performed, the authors would anticipate 236 false-positives, resulting in an additional 710 GP appointments, 229 phlebotomy appointments, and 24 referrals in the following 6 months. Conclusion: Inflammatory markers have poor sensitivity and should not be used as a rule-out test. False-positive results are common and lead to increased rates of follow-on GP consultations, tests, and referrals.National Institute for Health ResearchCancer Research UKNIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care Wes

Design study of Software-Implemented Fault-Tolerance (SIFT) computer

Software-implemented fault tolerant (SIFT) computer design for commercial aviation is reported. A SIFT design concept is addressed. Alternate strategies for physical implementation are considered. Hardware and software design correctness is addressed. System modeling and effectiveness evaluation are considered from a fault-tolerant point of view

High-velocity OH megamasers in IRAS 20100-4156: Evidence for a Supermassive Black Hole

We report the discovery of new, high-velocity narrow-line components of the OH megamaser in IRAS 20100-4156. Results from the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP)'s Boolardy Engineering Test Array (BETA) and the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) provide two independent measurements of the OH megamaser spectrum. We found evidence for OH megamaser clumps at $-$409 and $-$562 km/s (blue-shifted) from the systemic velocity of the galaxy, in addition to the lines previously known. The presence of such high velocities in the molecular emission from IRAS 20100$-$4156 could be explained by a ~50 pc molecular ring enclosing an approximately 3.8 billion solar mass black hole. We also discuss two alternatives, i.e. that the narrow-line masers are dynamically coupled to the wind driven by the active galactic nucleus or they are associated with two separate galactic nuclei. The comparison between the BETA and ATCA spectra provides another scientific verification of ASKAP's BETA. Our data, combined with previous measurements of the source enabled us to study the variability of the source over a twenty-six year period. The flux density of the brightest OH maser components has reduced by more than a factor of two between 1988 and 2015, whereas a secondary narrow-line component has more than doubled in the same time. Plans for high-resolution VLBI follow-up of this source are discussed, as are prospects for discovering new OH megamasers during the ASKAP early science program.Comment: Accepted to MNRAS. Seven pages, three figure

The Performance and Calibration of the CRAFT Fly's Eye Fast Radio Burst Survey

Since January 2017, the Commensal Real-time ASKAP Fast Transients survey (CRAFT) has been utilising commissioning antennas of the Australian SKA Pathfinder (ASKAP) to survey for fast radio bursts (FRBs) in fly's eye mode. This is the first extensive astronomical survey using phased array feeds (PAFs), and a total of 20 FRBs have been reported. Here we present a calculation of the sensitivity and total exposure of this survey, using the pulsars B1641-45 (J1644-4559) and B0833-45 (J0835-4510, i.e.\ Vela) as calibrators. The design of the survey allows us to benchmark effects due to PAF beamshape, antenna-dependent system noise, radio-frequency interference, and fluctuations during commissioning on timescales from one hour to a year. Observation time, solid-angle, and search efficiency are calculated as a function of FRB fluence threshold. Using this metric, effective survey exposures and sensitivities are calculated as a function of the source counts distribution. The implied FRB rate is significantly lower than the $37$\,sky$^{-1}$\,day$^{-1}$ calculated using nominal exposures and sensitivities for this same sample by \citet{craft_nature}. At the Euclidean power-law index of $-1.5$, the rate is $10.7_{-1.8}^{+2.7}\,{\rm (sys)} \, \pm \, 3\,{\rm (stat)}$\,sky$^{-1}$\,day$^{-1}$ above a threshold of $57\pm6\,{\rm (sys)}$\,Jy\,ms, while for the best-fit index for this sample of $-2.1$, it is $16.6_{-1.5}^{+1.9} \,{\rm (sys)}\, \pm 4.7\,{\rm (stat)}$\,sky$^{-1}$\,day$^{-1}$ above a threshold of $41.6\pm1.5\,{\rm (sys)}$\,Jy\,ms. This strongly suggests that these calculations be performed for other FRB-hunting experiments, allowing meaningful comparisons to be made between them.Comment: 21 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in PAS