Winter storm risk of residential structures ? model development and application to the German state of Baden-Württemberg

International audienceThe derivation of probabilities of high wind speeds and the establishment of risk curves for storm damage is of prime importance in natural hazard risk analysis. Risk curves allow the assessment of damage being exceeded at a given level of probability. In this paper, a method for the assessment of winter storm damage risk is described in detail and applied to the German state of Baden-Württemberg. Based on meteorological observations of the years 1971?2000 and on damage information of 4 severe storm events, storm hazard and damage risk of residential buildings is calculated on the level of communities. For this purpose, highly resolved simulations of storm wind fields with the Karlsruher Atmospheric Mesoscale Model (KAMM) are performed and a storm damage model is developed. Risk curves including the quantification of the uncertainties are calculated for every community. Local differences of hazard and risk are presented in state-wide maps. An average annual winter storm damage to residential buildings of minimum 15 million Euro (reference year 2000) for Baden-Württemberg is expected

Saharan Dust Event Impacts on Cloud Formation and Radiation over Western Europe

We investigated the impact of mineral dust particles on clouds, radiation and atmospheric state during a strong Saharan dust event over Europe in May 2008, applying a comprehensive online-coupled regional model framework that explicitly treats particle-microphysics and chemical composition. Sophisticated parameterizations for aerosol activation and ice nucleation, together with two-moment cloud microphysics are used to calculate the interaction of the different particles with clouds depending on their physical and chemical properties. The impact of dust on cloud droplet number concentration was found to be low, with just a slight increase in cloud droplet number concentration for both uncoated and coated dust. For temperatures lower than the level of homogeneous freezing, no significant impact of dust on the number and mass concentration of ice crystals was found, though the concentration of frozen dust particles reached up to 100 l-1 during the ice nucleation events. Mineral dust particles were found to have the largest impact on clouds in a temperature range between freezing level and the level of homogeneous freezing, where they determined the number concentration of ice crystals due to efficient heterogeneous freezing of the dust particles and modified the glaciation of mixed phase clouds. Our simulations show that during the dust events, ice crystals concentrations were increased twofold in this temperature range (compared to if dust interactions are neglected). This had a significant impact on the cloud optical properties, causing a reduction in the incoming short-wave radiation at the surface up to -75Wm-2. Including the direct interaction of dust with radiation caused an additional reduction in the incoming short-wave radiation by 40 to 80Wm-2, and the incoming long-wave radiation at the surface was increased significantly in the order of +10Wm-2. The strong radiative forcings associated with dust caused a reduction in surface temperature in the order of -0.2 to -0.5K for most parts of France, Germany, and Italy during the dust event. The maximum difference in surface temperature was found in the East of France, the Benelux, and Western Germany with up to -1 K. This magnitude of temperature change was sufficient to explain a systematic bias in numerical weather forecasts during the period of the dust event

Weddell Sea iceberg drift: Five years of observations

Since 1999, 52 icebergs have been tagged with GPS buoys in the Weddell Seato enable monitoring of their position. The chosen icebergs were of small tomedium size, with a few icebergs larger than 10 km associatedwith the calving of icebergs A38 and A43 from the Ronne Ice Shelf.The majority of icebergs were tagged off Neumayer Station (8E, 70S).It was found that smaller bergs with edges shorter than 200 m had the shortestlife cycle (< 0.5 yr). Iceberg and thus freshwater export out of theWeddell Sea was found to be highly variable. In one year the majority of buoysdeployed remained in the Weddell Sea, constituting about 40 % of the NCEP P-Efreshwater input, whereas in other years all of the tagged icebergs were exported.The observed drifts of icebergs and sea-ice showed a remarkably coherent motion.The analysis of an iceberg - sea-ice buoy array in the western Weddell Seaand an iceberg array in the eastern Weddell Sea showed a coherent sea-iceiceberg drift in sea-ice concentrations above 86 %. Dynamic kinematic parameter(DKP) during the course of coherent movement were low and deviations from the meancourse associated with the passage of low-pressure system. The length scale ofcoherent movement was estimated to be less than 250km; about half the value found forthe Arctic Ocean

Operational flood management under large-scale extreme conditions, using the example of the Middle Elbe

In addition to precautionary or technical flood protection measures, short-term strategies of the operational management, i.e. the initiation and co-ordination of preventive measures during and/or before a flood event are crucially for the reduction of the flood damages. This applies especially for extreme flood events. These events are rare, but may cause a protection measure to be overtopped or even to fail and be destroyed. In such extreme cases, reliable decisions must be made and emergency measures need to be carried out to prevent even larger damages from occurring. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt; Based on improved methods for meteorological and hydrological modelling a range of (physically based) extreme flood scenarios can be derived from historical events by modification of air temperature and humidity, shifting of weather fields and recombination of flood relevant event characteristics. By coupling the large scale models with hydraulic and geotechnical models, the whole flood-process-chain can be analysed right down to the local scale. With the developed GIS-based tools for hydraulic modelling &lt;i&gt;FlowGIS&lt;/i&gt; and the Dike-Information-System, (IS-dikes) it is possible to quantify the endangering shortly before or even during a flood event, so the decision makers can evaluate possible options for action in operational mode

Viruses in extreme environments

The original publication is available at www.springerlink.comInternational audienceThe tolerance limits of extremophiles in term of temperature, pH, salinity, desiccation, hydrostatic pressure, radiation, anaerobiosis far exceed what can support non-extremophilic organisms. Like all other organisms, extremophiles serve as hosts for viral replication. Many lines of evidence suggest that viruses could no more be regarded as simple infectious ‘‘fragments of life'' but on the contrary as one of the major components of the biosphere. The exploration of niches with seemingly harsh life conditions as hypersaline and soda lakes, Sahara desert, polar environments or hot acid springs and deep sea hydrothermal vents, permitted to track successfully the presence of viruses. Substantial populations of double-stranded DNA virus that can reach 109 particles per milliliter were recorded. All these viral communities, with genome size ranging from 14 kb to 80 kb, seem to be genetically distinct, suggesting specific niche adaptation. Nevertheless, at this stage of the knowledge, very little is known of their origin, activity, or importance to the in situ microbial dynamics. The continuous attempts to isolate and to study viruses that thrive in extreme environments will be needed to address such questions. However, this topic appears to open a new window on an unexplored part of the viral world

Utilizing high-throughput experimentation to enhance specific productivity of an E.coli T7 expression system by phosphate limitation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The specific productivity of cultivation processes can be optimized, amongst others, by using genetic engineering of strains, choice of suitable host/vector systems or process optimization (e.g. choosing the right induction time). A further possibility is to reduce biomass buildup in favor of an enhanced product formation, e.g. by limiting secondary substrates in the medium, such as phosphate. However, with conventional techniques (e.g. small scale cultivations in shake flasks), it is very tedious to establish optimal conditions for cell growth and protein expression, as the start of protein expression (induction time) and the degree of phosphate limitation have to be determined in numerous concerted, manually conducted experiments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We investigated the effect of different induction times and a concurrent phosphate limitation on the specific productivity of the T7 expression system <it>E.coli </it>BL21(DE3) pRhotHi-2-EcFbFP, which produces the model fluorescence protein EcFbFP upon induction. Therefore, specific online-monitoring tools for small scale cultivations (RAMOS, BioLector) as well as a novel cultivation platform (Robo-Lector) were used for rapid process optimization. The RAMOS system monitored the oxygen transfer rate in shake flasks, whereas the BioLector device allowed to monitor microbial growth and the production of EcFbFP in microtiter plates. The Robo-Lector is a combination of a BioLector and a pipetting robot and can conduct high-throughput experiments fully automated. By using these tools, it was possible to determine the optimal induction time and to increase the specific productivity for EcFbFP from 22% (for unlimited conditions) to 31% of total protein content of the <it>E.coli </it>cells via a phosphate limitation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results revealed that a phosphate limitation at the right induction time was suitable to redirect the available cellular resources during cultivation to protein expression rather than in biomass production. To our knowledge, such an effect was shown for the first time for an IPTG-inducible expression system. Finally, this finding and the utilization of the introduced high-throughput experimentation approach could help to find new targets to further enhance the production capacity of recombinant <it>E.coli</it>-strains.</p

Reduced expression of BAX is associated with poor prognosis in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer: a multifactorial analysis of TP53, p21, BAX and BCL-2

Traditional clinicopathological features do not predict which patients will develop chemotherapy resistance. The TP53 gene is frequently altered in ovarian cancer but its prognostic implications are controversial. Little is known on the impact of TP53-downstream genes on prognosis. Using molecular and immunohistochemical analyses we examined TP53 and its downstream genes p21 BAX and BCL-2 in ovarian tumour tissues and have evaluated the results in relation to clinico-pathological parameters, clinical outcome and response to platinum-based chemotherapy. Associations of tested factors and patient and tumour characteristics were studied by Spearman rank correlation and Pearsons χ2 test. The Cox proportional hazard model was used for univariate and multivariate analysis. The associations of tested factors with response was tested using logistic regression analysis. TP53 mutation, p21 and BCL-2 expression were not associated with increased rates of progression and death. Expression of TP53 was associated with a shorter overall survival only (relative hazard rate [RHR] 2.01 P = 0.03). Interestingly, when combining TP53 mutation and expression data, this resulted in an increased association with overall survival (P = 0.008). BAX expression was found to be associated with both progression-free (RHR 0.44 P = 0.05) and overall survival (RHR 0.42 P = 0.03). Those patients who simultaneously expressed BAX and BCL-2 had a longer progression-free and overall survival compared to patients whose tumours did not express BCL-2 (P = 0.05 and 0.015 respectively). No relations were observed between tested factors and response to platinum-based chemotherapy. We conclude that BAX expression may represent a prognostic indicator for patients with ovarian cancer and that the combined evaluation of BAX and BCL-2 may provide additional prognostic significance.   http://www.bjcancer.com © 2001 Cancer Research Campaig