Observations of Electrons from the Decay of Solar Flare Neutrons

We have found evidence for fluxes of energetic electrons in interplanetary space on board the ISEE-3 spacecraft which we interpret as the decay products of neutrons generated in a solar flare on 1980 June 21. The decay electrons arrived at the s/c shortly before the electrons from the flare and can be distinguished from the latter by their distinctive energy spectrum. The time profile of the decay electrons is in good agreement with the results from a simulation based on a scattering mean free path derived from a fit to the flare electron data. The comparison with simultaneously observed decay protons and a published direct measurement of high-energy neutrons places important constraints on the parent neutron spectrum.Comment: 4 pages (postscript), accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letter

Heliospheric Transport of Neutron-Decay Protons

We report on new simulations of the transport of energetic protons originating from the decay of energetic neutrons produced in solar flares. Because the neutrons are fast-moving but insensitive to the solar wind magnetic field, the decay protons are produced over a wide region of space, and they should be detectable by current instruments over a broad range of longitudes for many hours after a sufficiently large gamma-ray flare. Spacecraft closer to the Sun are expected to see orders-of magnitude higher intensities than those at the Earth-Sun distance. The current solar cycle should present an excellent opportunity to observe neutron-decay protons with multiple spacecraft over different heliographic longitudes and distances from the Sun.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, to be published in special issue of Solar Physic

Bounding Helly numbers via Betti numbers

We show that very weak topological assumptions are enough to ensure the existence of a Helly-type theorem. More precisely, we show that for any non-negative integers $b$ and $d$ there exists an integer $h(b,d)$ such that the following holds. If $\mathcal F$ is a finite family of subsets of $\mathbb R^d$ such that $\tilde\beta_i\left(\bigcap\mathcal G\right) \le b$ for any $\mathcal G \subsetneq \mathcal F$ and every $0 \le i \le \lceil d/2 \rceil-1$ then $\mathcal F$ has Helly number at most $h(b,d)$. Here $\tilde\beta_i$ denotes the reduced $\mathbb Z_2$-Betti numbers (with singular homology). These topological conditions are sharp: not controlling any of these $\lceil d/2 \rceil$ first Betti numbers allow for families with unbounded Helly number. Our proofs combine homological non-embeddability results with a Ramsey-based approach to build, given an arbitrary simplicial complex $K$, some well-behaved chain map $C_*(K) \to C_*(\mathbb R^d)$.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figure

Uncanny Objects and the Fear of the Familiar:Hiding from Akan Witches in New York City

This article examines the cosmology and secret practices of West African traditional priests in New York City in preventing the spread of witchcraft, an evil invisible spirit transmitted between female members of the Akan matrilineage. Explored is an uncanny dynamic as everyday habitus becomes increasingly strange in the world of a young Ghanaian woman in the Bronx, who has become petrified of insinuations of witchcraft from close family members. In trying to hide the young woman from infection by her fellow witches, Akan priests attempt to ‘capture’ her habits and everyday routines, calling upon the iconic magic of New York City in order to ‘misplace’ familiarity within the anonymity of Manhattan. In this process, the transmission of the witch’s spirit to the intended victim is disturbed as the victim’s life and things are moved. Nowhere to be found, the witch shifts her attention to other victims

Sources of SEP Acceleration during a Flare-CME Event

A high-speed halo-type coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with a GOES M4.6 soft X-ray flare in NOAA AR 0180 at S12W29 and an EIT wave and dimming, occurred on 9 November 2002. A complex radio event was observed during the same period. It included narrow-band fluctuations and frequency-drifting features in the metric wavelength range, type III burst groups at metric--hectometric wavelengths, and an interplanetary type II radio burst, which was visible in the dynamic radio spectrum below 14 MHz. To study the association of the recorded solar energetic particle (SEP) populations with the propagating CME and flaring, we perform a multi-wavelength analysis using radio spectral and imaging observations combined with white-light, EUV, hard X-ray, and magnetogram data. Velocity dispersion analysis of the particle distributions (SOHO and Wind in situ observations) provides estimates for the release times of electrons and protons. Our analysis indicates that proton acceleration was delayed compared to the electrons. The dynamics of the interplanetary type II burst identify the burst source as a bow shock created by the fast CME. The type III burst groups, with start times close to the estimated electron release times, trace electron beams travelling along open field lines into the interplanetary space. The type III bursts seem to encounter a steep density gradient as they overtake the type II shock front, resulting in an abrupt change in the frequency drift rate of the type III burst emission. Our study presents evidence in support of a scenario in which electrons are accelerated low in the corona behind the CME shock front, while protons are accelerated later, possibly at the CME bow shock high in the corona.Comment: Solar Physics, November 2007, in pres

Acceleration of Relativistic Protons during the 20 January 2005 Flare and CME

The origin of relativistic solar protons during large flare/CME events has not been uniquely identified so far.We perform a detailed comparative analysis of the time profiles of relativistic protons detected by the worldwide network of neutron monitors at Earth with electromagnetic signatures of particle acceleration in the solar corona during the large particle event of 20 January 2005. The intensity-time profile of the relativistic protons derived from the neutron monitor data indicates two successive peaks. We show that microwave, hard X-ray and gamma-ray emissions display several episodes of particle acceleration within the impulsive flare phase. The first relativistic protons detected at Earth are accelerated together with relativistic electrons and with protons that produce pion decay gamma-rays during the second episode. The second peak in the relativistic proton profile at Earth is accompanied by new signatures of particle acceleration in the corona within approximatively 1 solar radius above the photosphere, revealed by hard X-ray and microwave emissions of low intensity, and by the renewed radio emission of electron beams and of a coronal shock wave. We discuss the observations in terms of different scenarios of particle acceleration in the corona.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figure

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362