Instability and multiple steady states in a meridional-plane model of the thermohaline circulation

A meridional-plane model of the thermohaline circulation with a simple friction force and advection and vertical diffusion of the T-S field has been used to demonstrate the instability and existence of multiple steady states associated with “mixed” T-S boundary conditions (specified temperature, flux condition for salinity). With forcing and geometry symmetric to the equator, the symmetric solution was found to be unstable to infinitesimal perturbations, and an asymmetric pole-to-pole circulation was the end-result in all cases. The structure obtained for the meridional-plane stream function and for the poleward heat flux are in qualitative agreement with those obtained by Bryan (1986). Convective overturning caused by static instability was not found to be essential for the transition to the asymmetric steady state. The study suggests that certain aspects of the ocean circulation, in particular those related to the ocean climate, may be profitably explored by use of two-dimensional, zonally averaged models

The present and future system for measuring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and heat transport

of the global combined atmosphere-ocean heat flux and so is important for the mean climate of the Atlantic sector of the Northern Hemisphere. This meridional heat flux is accomplished by both the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and by basin-wide horizontal gyre circulations. In the North Atlantic subtropical latitudes the AMOC dominates the meridional heat flux, while in subpolar latitudes and in the subtropical South Atlantic the gyre circulations are also important. Climate models suggest the AMOC will slow over the coming decades as the earth warms, causing widespread cooling in the Northern hemisphere and additional sea-level rise. Monitoring systems for selected components of the AMOC have been in place in some areas for decades, nevertheless the present observational network provides only a partial view of the AMOC, and does not unambiguously resolve the full variability of the circulation. Additional observations, building on existing measurements, are required to more completely quantify the Atlantic meridional heat transport. A basin-wide monitoring array along 26.5°N has been continuously measuring the strength and vertical structure of the AMOC and meridional heat transport since March 31, 2004. The array has demonstrated its ability to observe the AMOC variability at that latitude and also a variety of surprising variability that will require substantially longer time series to understand fully. Here we propose monitoring the Atlantic meridional heat transport throughout the Atlantic at selected critical latitudes that have already been identified as regions of interest for the study of deep water formation and the strength of the subpolar gyre, transport variability of the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) as well as the upper limb of the AMOC, and inter-ocean and intrabasin exchanges with the ultimate goal of determining regional and global controls for the AMOC in the North and South Atlantic Oceans. These new arrays will continuously measure the full depth, basin-wide or choke-point circulation and heat transport at a number of latitudes, to establish the dynamics and variability at each latitude and then their meridional connectivity. Modeling studies indicate that adaptations of the 26.5°N type of array may provide successful AMOC monitoring at other latitudes. However, further analysis and the development of new technologies will be needed to optimize cost effective systems for providing long term monitoring and data recovery at climate time scales. These arrays will provide benchmark observations of the AMOC that are fundamental for assimilation, initialization, and the verification of coupled hindcast/forecast climate models

Destabilization of the thermohaline circulation by transient perturbations to the hydrological cycle

We reconsider the problem of the stability of the thermohaline circulation as described by a two-dimensional Boussinesq model with mixed boundary conditions. We determine how the stability properties of the system depend on the intensity of the hydrological cycle. We define a two-dimensional parameters' space descriptive of the hydrology of the system and determine, by considering suitable quasi-static perturbations, a bounded region where multiple equilibria of the system are realized. We then focus on how the response of the system to finite-amplitude surface freshwater forcings depends on their rate of increase. We show that it is possible to define a robust separation between slow and fast regimes of forcing. Such separation is obtained by singling out an estimate of the critical growth rate for the anomalous forcing, which can be related to the characteristic advective time scale of the system.Comment: 37 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Clim. Dy

Spatial and Temporal Scales of Sverdrup Balance

Sverdrup balance underlies much of the theory of ocean circulation and provides a potential tool for describing the interior ocean transport from only the wind stress. Using both a model state estimate and an eddy-permitting coupled climate model, this study assesses to what extent and over what spatial and temporal scales Sverdrup balance describes the meridional transport. The authors find that Sverdrup balance holds to first order in the interior subtropical ocean when considered at spatial scales greater than approximately 5°. Outside the subtropics, in western boundary currents and at short spatial scales, significant departures occur due to failures in both the assumptions that there is a level of no motion at some depth and that the vorticity equation is linear. Despite the ocean transport adjustment occurring on time scales consistent with the basin-crossing times for Rossby waves, as predicted by theory, Sverdrup balance gives a useful measure of the subtropical circulation after only a few years. This is because the interannual transport variability is small compared to the mean transports. The vorticity input to the deep ocean by the interaction between deep currents and topography is found to be very large in both models. These deep transports, however, are separated from upper-layer transports that are in Sverdrup balance when considered over large scales

A Model-data Comparison for a Multi-model Ensemble of Early Eocene Atmosphere-ocean Simulations: EoMIP

The early Eocene (~55 to 50 Ma) is a time period which has been explored in a large number of modelling and data studies. Here, using an ensemble of previously published model results, making up EoMIP – the Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project – and syntheses of early Eocene terrestrial and sea surface temperature data, we present a self-consistent inter-model and model–data comparison. This shows that the previous modelling studies exhibit a very wide inter-model variability, but that at high CO2, there is good agreement between models and data for this period, particularly if possible seasonal biases in some of the proxies are considered. An energy balance analysis explores the reasons for the differences between the model results, and suggests that differences in surface albedo feedbacks, water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, and prescribed aerosol loading are the dominant cause for the different results seen in the models, rather than inconsistencies in other prescribed boundary conditions or differences in cloud feedbacks. The CO2 level which would give optimal early Eocene model–data agreement, based on those models which have carried out simulations with more than one CO2 level, is in the range of 2500 ppmv to 6500 ppmv. Given the spread of model results, tighter bounds on proxy estimates of atmospheric CO2 and temperature during this time period will allow a quantitative assessment of the skill of the models at simulating warm climates. If it is the case that a model which gives a good simulation of the Eocene will also give a good simulation of the future, then such an assessment could be used to produce metrics for weighting future climate predictions

ICON-O: The Ocean Component of the ICON Earth System Model - Global simulation characteristics and local telescoping capability

Abstract We describe the ocean general circulation model ICON-O of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, which forms the ocean-sea ice component of the Earth system model ICON-ESM. ICON-O relies on innovative structure-preserving finite volume numerics. We demonstrate the fundamental ability of ICON-O to simulate key features of global ocean dynamics at both uniform and non-uniform resolution. Two experiments are analyzed and compared with observations, one with a nearly uniform and eddy-rich resolution of ?10?km and another with a telescoping configuration whose resolution varies smoothly from globally ?80?km to ?10?km in a focal region in the North Atlantic. Our results show first, that ICON-O on the nearly uniform grid simulates an ocean circulation that compares well with observations and second, that ICON-O in its telescope configuration is capable of reproducing the dynamics in the focal region over decadal time scales at a fraction of the computational cost of the uniform-grid simulation. The telescopic technique offers an alternative to the established regionalization approaches. It can be used either to resolve local circulation more accurately or to represent local scales that cannot be simulated globally while remaining within a global modeling framework

Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information

This chapter assesses simulations of future global climate change, spanning time horizons from the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long term (2081–2100) out to the year 2300. Changes are assessed relative to both the recent past (1995–2014) and the 1850–1900 approximation to the pre-industrial period

An adjoint method for the assimilation of statistical characteristics into eddy-resolving ocean models

The study investigates perspectives of the parameter estimation problem with the adjoint method in eddy-resolving models. Sensitivity to initial conditions resulting from the chaotic nature of this type of model limits the direct application of the adjoint method by predictability. Prolonging the period of assimilation is accompanied by the appearance of an increasing number of secondary minima of the cost function that prevents the convergence of this method. In the framework of the Lorenz model it is shown that averaged quantities are suitable for describing invariant properties, and that secondary minima are for this type of data transformed into stochastic deviations. An adjoint method suitable for the assimilation of statistical characteristics of data and applicable on time scales beyond the predictability limit is presented. The approach assumes a greater predictability for averaged quantities. The adjoint to a prognostic model for statistical moments is employed for calculating cost function gradients that ignore the fine structure resulting from secondary minima. Coarse resolution versions of eddy-resolving models are used for this purpose. Identical twin experiments are performed with a quasigeostrophic model to evaluate the performance and limitations of this approach in improving models by estimating parameters. The wind stress curl is estimated from a simulated mean stream function. A very simple parameterization scheme for the assimilation of second-order moments is shown to permit the estimation of gradients that perform efficiently in minimizing cost functions