How Effective are Unemployment Benefit Sanctions? Looking Beyond Unemployment Exit

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of benefit sanctions, i.e. temporary reductions in unemployment benefits as punishment for noncompliance with eligibility requirements. In addition to the effects on unemployment durations, we evaluate the effects on post-unemployment employment stability, on exits from the labor market and on earnings. In our analysis we use a rich set of Swiss register data which allow us to distinguish between ex ante effects, the effects of warnings and the effects of enforcement of benefit sanctions. Adopting a multivariate mixed proportional hazard approach to address selectivity, we find that both warnings and enforcement increase the job finding rate and the exit rate out of the labor force. Warnings do not affect subsequent employment stability but do reduce post-unemployment earnings. Actual benefit reductions lower the quality of post-unemployment jobs both in terms of job duration as well as in terms of earnings. The net effect of a benefit sanction on post-unemployment income is negative. Over a period of two years after leaving unemployment workers who got a benefit sanction imposed face a net income loss equivalent to 30 days of full pay due to the ex post effect. In addition to that, stricter monitoring may reduce net earnings by up to 4 days of pay for every unemployed worker due to the ex ante effect.Benefit sanctions;earnings effects;unemployment duration;competing-risk duration models

How Effective are Unemployment Benefit Sanctions? Looking Beyond Unemployment Exit

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of benefit sanctions, i.e. temporary reductions in unemployment benefits as punishment for noncompliance with eligibility requirements. In addition to the effects on unemployment durations, we evaluate the effects on post-unemployment employment stability, on exits from the labor market and on earnings. In our analysis we use a rich set of Swiss register data which allow us to distinguish between ex ante effects, the effects of warnings and the effects of enforcement of benefit sanctions. Adopting a multivariate mixed proportional hazard approach to address selectivity, we find that both warnings and enforcement increase the job finding rate and the exit rate out of the labor force. Warnings do not affect subsequent employment stability but do reduce post-unemployment earnings. Actual benefit reductions lower the quality of post-unemployment jobs both in terms of job duration as well as in terms of earnings. The net effect of a benefit sanction on post-unemployment income is negative. Over a period of two years after leaving unemployment workers who got a benefit sanction imposed face a net income loss equivalent to 30 days of full pay due to the ex post effect. In addition to that, stricter monitoring may reduce net earnings by up to 4 days of pay for every unemployed worker due to the ex ante effect.

Causality and endogeneity: Problems and solutions

Most leadership and management researchers ignore one key design and estimation problem rendering parameter estimates uninterpretable: Endogeneity. We discuss the problem of endogeneity in depth and explain conditions that engender it using examples grounded in the leadership literature. We show how consistent causal estimates can be derived from the randomized experiment, where endogeneity is eliminated by experimental design. We then review the reasons why estimates may become biased (i.e., inconsistent) in non-experimental designs and present a number of useful remedies for examining causal relations with non-experimental data. We write in intuitive terms using nontechnical language to make this chapter accessible to a large audience

Treatment Versus Regime Effects of Carrots and Sticks

Public employment service (PES) agencies and caseworkers (CWs) often have substantial leeway in the design and implementation of active labor market policies for the unemployed, and they use policies to a varying extent. We estimate regime effects which capture how CW and PES affect outcomes through different policy intensities. These operate potentially on all forward-looking job seekers regardless of actual treatment exposure. We consider regime effects for two sets of programs, supporting (“carrots”) and restricting (“sticks”) programs, and contrast regime and treatment effects on unemployment durations, employment, and post-unemployment earnings using register data that contain PES and caseworker identifiers for about 130,000 job spells. Regime effects are important: earnings are higher in a PES if carrot-type programs are used more intensively and stick-type programs are used less intensively. Actual treatment effects on earnings have a similar order of magnitude as regime effects and are positive for participation in carrot-type programs and negative for stick-type treatments. Regime effects are economically substantial. A modest increase in the intended usage of carrots and sticks reduces the total cost of an unemployed individual by up to 7.5%

Conformational epitopes of myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein are targets of potentially pathogenic antibody responses in multiple sclerosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Myelin/oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) is a putative autoantigen in multiple sclerosis (MS). Establishing the pathological relevance and validity of anti-MOG antibodies as biomarkers has yielded conflicting reports mainly due to different MOG isoforms used in different studies. Because epitope specificity may be a key factor determining anti-MOG reactivity we aimed at identifying <it>a priori </it>immunodominant MOG epitopes by monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and at assessing clinical relevance of these epitopes in MS.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sera of 325 MS patients, 69 patients with clinically isolated syndrome and 164 healthy controls were assayed by quantitative, high-throughput ELISA for reactivity to 3 different MOG isoforms, and quantitative titers correlated with clinical characteristics. mAbs defined unique immunodominant epitopes distinct to each of the isoforms.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the majority of human samples anti-MOG levels were skewed towards low titers. However, in 8.2% of samples high-titer anti-MOG antibodies were identified. In contrast to anti-MOG reactivity observed in a mouse model of MS, in patients with MS these never reacted with ubiquitously exposed epitopes. Moreover, in patients with relapsing-remitting MS high-titer anti-MOG IgG correlated with disability (EDSS; Spearman r = 0.574; p = 0.025).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Thus high-titer reactivity likely represents high-affinity antibodies against pathologically relevant MOG epitopes, that are only present in a small proportion of patients with MS. Our study provides valuable information about requirements of anti-MOG reactivity for being regarded as a prognostic biomarker in a subtype of MS.</p

Personality as a Predictor of Disability in Multiple Sclerosis.

As personality changes and personality disorders are frequently observed in multiple sclerosis (MS), personality may be a prognostic factor for this disease. The present study investigated the influence of personality on disability, progression, and treatment adherence in MS. Personality was assessed in 41 patients with Relapsing-Remitting MS (30 females; mean age = 42.63 years) using the NEO Personality Inventory-3rd edition. Disability was measured with the Expanded Disability Status Scale, and treatment adherence information was collected from the Swiss MS Cohort. Correlation, multiple linear and partial least square regressions were performed to examine relations between personality, disability, and treatment adherence in MS. After accounting for age and time since disease onset, our analysis revealed that Neuroticism (β = 0.32, p = 0.01) and its Vulnerability facet (β = 0.28, p &lt; 0.05) predicted greater disability, whereas Extraversion (β = -0.25, p = 0.04) and its Activity facet (β = -0.23, p &lt; 0.05) predicted milder disability. Regarding disability progression, correlational analysis revealed that it was negatively correlated with Extraversion (r = -0.44, p = 0.02) and the Feelings facet of Openness (r = -0.41, p = 0.03), but regressions failed to highlight any predictive links. No significant results could be demonstrated for treatment adherence. Overall, our study showed that some personality traits can impact disability in MS, indicating that these should be considered in clinical practice, as they could be used to adapt and improve patients' clinical support

Prognostic biomarkers in primary progressive multiple sclerosis: validating and scrutinizing multimodal evoked potentials

OBJECTIVE: To validate the prognostic value of multimodal evoked potentials (mmEP) in primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) and to determine the most predictive EP-modalities. METHODS: Thirty-nine patients with PPMS (expanded disability status scale (EDSS): 2.0-6.5; mean clinical follow-up: 2.8 years) had visual (VEP), upper and lower limb somatosensory (SEP) and motor EP (MEP) at baseline. Quantitative EP-scores for single (qVEP, qSEP, qMEP) and combined modalities were correlated to EDSS and compared to previously published data of 21 PPMS patients. Predictors of EDSS-change were analyzed in pooled data by linear regression. RESULTS: Samples were comparable. Except qVEP, all EP-scores were correlated to EDSS at baseline (Rho: 0.45-0.69; p < 0.01) and follow-up (Rho: 0.59-0.80; p < 0.001). Combined EP-modalities significantly predicted EDSS-change (R(2)adj: 0.24), while EDSS and age did not. Tibial qSEP (R(2)adj: 0.22) and qMEP (R(2)adj: 0.26) were the best single modality predictors, outperformed by their combination (R(2)adj: 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative EP-scores predict up to 32% of EDSS-change over three years. Modalities representing motor and long tract function carry the main prognostic information. SIGNIFICANCE: Replication of previous results corroborates the use of mmEP as a prognostic biomarker candidate in PPMS

Coordination on Networks: Does Topology Matter?

Effective coordination is key to many situations that affect the well-being of two or more humans. Social coordination can be studied in coordination games between individuals located on networks of contacts. We study the behavior of humans in the laboratory when they play the Stag Hunt game - a game that has a risky but socially efficient equilibrium and an inefficient but safe equilibrium. We contrast behavior on a cliquish network to behavior on a random network. The cliquish network is highly clustered and resembles more closely to actual social networks than the random network. In contrast to simulations, we find that human players dynamics do not converge to the efficient outcome more often in the cliquish network than in the random network. Subjects do not use pure myopic best-reply as an individual update rule. Numerical simulations agree with laboratory results once we implement the actual individual updating rule that human subjects use in our laboratory experiments