Target atmospheric CO2: Supporting material

Additional material supporting the article "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?"Comment: 27 pages, 21 figures; final version accepted by Open Science Atmospheric Journal; main article separately submitted to arXiv as "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?", arxiv:0804.112

Impact of Climate Change on International Health Security: An Intersection of Complexity, Interdependence, and Urgency

Climate change (CC) can be defined as a long-term shift in global, continental, and/or local climate patterns. Although many equate CC to the rise in global temperatures, the issue is much more complicated and involves a large number of interconnected factors. Among some of the less discussed considerations of CC are its effects on a broad range of public health issues, including the emergence of novel infectious diseases, the encroachment of infectious disease vectors into previously unaffected geographic distributions, and crop failures resulting in threats of malnutrition and mass migration. This chapter will be devoted to key issues related to CC in the context of international health security (IHS)

Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature

28 pages, 6 figures; version submitted to Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesGlobal warming due to human-made gases, mainly CO2, is already 0.8{\deg}C and deleterious climate impacts are growing worldwide. More warming is 'in the pipeline' because Earth is out of energy balance, with absorbed solar energy exceeding planetary heat radiation. Maintaining a climate that resembles the Holocene, the world of stable shorelines in which civilization developed, requires rapidly reducing fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Such a scenario is economically sensible and has multiple benefits for humanity and other species. Yet fossil fuel extraction is expanding, including highly carbon-intensive sources that can push the climate system beyond tipping points such that amplifying feedbacks drive further climate change that is practically out of humanity's control. This situation raises profound moral issues as young people, future generations, and nature, with no possibility of protecting their future well-being, will bear the principal consequences of actions and inactions of today's adults

Differences in carbon emissions reduction between countries pursuing renewable electricity versus nuclear power

Two of the most widely emphasized contenders for carbon emissions reduction in the electricity sector are nuclear power and renewable energy. While scenarios regularly question the potential impacts of adoption of various technology mixes in the future, it is less clear which technology has been associated with greater historical emission reductions. Here, we use multiple regression analyses on global datasets of national carbon emissions and renewable and nuclear electricity production across 123 countries over 25 years to examine systematically patterns in how countries variously using nuclear power and renewables contrastingly show higher or lower carbon emissions. We find that larger-scale national nuclear attachments do not tend to associate with significantly lower carbon emissions while renewables do. We also find a negative association between the scales of national nuclear and renewables attachments. This suggests nuclear and renewables attachments tend to crowd each other out

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato. Identification of 'dangerous' effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 degree C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 degree C if climate sensitivity is \~3 degrees C or less for doubled CO2. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are needed to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario

Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. The greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.Comment: 44 pages; 19 figures; Final text accepted by Climate Dynamic

Earth: Atmospheric Evolution of a Habitable Planet

Our present-day atmosphere is often used as an analog for potentially habitable exoplanets, but Earth's atmosphere has changed dramatically throughout its 4.5 billion year history. For example, molecular oxygen is abundant in the atmosphere today but was absent on the early Earth. Meanwhile, the physical and chemical evolution of Earth's atmosphere has also resulted in major swings in surface temperature, at times resulting in extreme glaciation or warm greenhouse climates. Despite this dynamic and occasionally dramatic history, the Earth has been persistently habitable--and, in fact, inhabited--for roughly 4 billion years. Understanding Earth's momentous changes and its enduring habitability is essential as a guide to the diversity of habitable planetary environments that may exist beyond our solar system and for ultimately recognizing spectroscopic fingerprints of life elsewhere in the Universe. Here, we review long-term trends in the composition of Earth's atmosphere as it relates to both planetary habitability and inhabitation. We focus on gases that may serve as habitability markers (CO2, N2) or biosignatures (CH4, O2), especially as related to the redox evolution of the atmosphere and the coupled evolution of Earth's climate system. We emphasize that in the search for Earth-like planets we must be mindful that the example provided by the modern atmosphere merely represents a single snapshot of Earth's long-term evolution. In exploring the many former states of our own planet, we emphasize Earth's atmospheric evolution during the Archean, Proterozoic, and Phanerozoic eons, but we conclude with a brief discussion of potential atmospheric trajectories into the distant future, many millions to billions of years from now. All of these 'Alternative Earth' scenarios provide insight to the potential diversity of Earth-like, habitable, and inhabited worlds.Comment: 34 pages, 4 figures, 4 tables. Review chapter to appear in Handbook of Exoplanet

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study

We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880–2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of "dangerous" effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1°C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1°C if climate sensitivity is ~3°C or less for doubled CO2. The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2σ (standard deviations) of 20th century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5–10σ, i.e. mean conditions outside the range of local experience. We conclude that a CO2 level exceeding about 450 ppm is "dangerous", but reduction of non-CO2 forcings can provide modest relief on the CO2 constraint. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. We suggest that Arctic climate change has been driven as much by pollutants (O3, its precursor CH4, and soot) as by CO2, offering hope that dual efforts to reduce pollutants and slow CO2 growth could minimize Arctic change. Simulated recent ocean warming in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation is comparable to observations, suggesting that greenhouse gases (GHGs) may have contributed to a trend toward greater hurricane intensities. Increasing GHGs cause significant warming in our model in submarine regions of ice shelves and shallow methane hydrates, raising concern about the potential for accelerating sea level rise and future positive feedback from methane release. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are required to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario