Using MCDA to generate and interpret evidence to inform local government investment in public health

Smoking is the single biggest cause of preventable death in the Uited Kingdom (UK) and is a major cause of coronary heart disease, some cancers, and respiratory disease, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. At the time of initiating the project, smoking prevalence had not changed across four local government areas in South Yorkshire for some years. Most spending had been focussed on helping people quit, an intervention where there was clear evidence of effectiveness. A number of changes occurred in public health structures and targets, requiring a reappraisal of the range of interventions offered. This was challenging due to a lack of clear evidence for some of the areas’ alternative interventions. The aim of this paper is to describe the use of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach to support the health priority setting in local authorities to reduce smoking prevalence. There were three phases to this process: (1) problem structuring; (2) the multiple criteria decision analysis; (3) and using the MCDA results to influence decision making at the local government level. The MCDA approach was used to collate information in a consistent and transparent manner, using expert, stakeholder and public opinion to fill known gaps in evidence. Fifteen interventions (such as stop smoking support services, smoke-free spaces, communication and marketing exercises, and increased investment in enforcement) were ranked across eight criteria (relating to reductions in prevalence across relevant groups, as well as aspects relating to equity and feasibility), allowing a range of relevant concerns to be incorporated. Subsequent steps were taken to translate the results of this stage into workable policy options. The results differed significantly from current practice. Sensitivity analysis showed that the findings were robust to changes in preference weights. These results informed subsequent changes to the interventions offered across the four boroughs. The ability of MCDA techniques to incorporate data and both qualitative and quantitative judgements in a formal manner mean that they are well suited to support public health decision making, where evidence is often only partially available and many policies are value driven. MCDA methods, if used, should be chosen carefully based on their resource/time constraints, scientific validity, and the significance and broader context of the decision problem.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40070-016-0059-

Astrocytic Ion Dynamics: Implications for Potassium Buffering and Liquid Flow

We review modeling of astrocyte ion dynamics with a specific focus on the implications of so-called spatial potassium buffering, where excess potassium in the extracellular space (ECS) is transported away to prevent pathological neural spiking. The recently introduced Kirchoff-Nernst-Planck (KNP) scheme for modeling ion dynamics in astrocytes (and brain tissue in general) is outlined and used to study such spatial buffering. We next describe how the ion dynamics of astrocytes may regulate microscopic liquid flow by osmotic effects and how such microscopic flow can be linked to whole-brain macroscopic flow. We thus include the key elements in a putative multiscale theory with astrocytes linking neural activity on a microscopic scale to macroscopic fluid flow.Comment: 27 pages, 7 figure

Utility of clinical parameters to identify HIV infection in infants below ten weeks of age in South Africa: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As HIV-infected infants have high mortality, the World Health Organization now recommends initiating antiretroviral therapy as early as possible in the first year of life. However, in many settings, laboratory diagnosis of HIV in infants is not readily available. We aimed to develop a clinical algorithm for HIV presumptive diagnosis in infants < 10 weeks old using screening data from the Children with HIV Early Antiretroviral therapy (CHER) study in South Africa.</p> <p>HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected exposed infants < 10 weeks of age were identified through Vertical Transmission Prevention programs. Clinical and laboratory data were systematically recorded, groups were compared using Kruskal-Wallis, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Fisher's exact tests. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were compiled using combinations of clinical findings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>417 HIV-infected and 125 HIV-exposed, uninfected infants, median age 46 days (IQR 38-55), were included. The median CD4 percentage in HIV-infected infants was 34 (IQR 28-41)%. HIV-infected infants had lower weight-for-age, more lymphadenopathy, oral thrush, and hepatomegaly than exposed uninfected infants (Adjusted Odds Ratio 0.51, 8.8, 5.6 and 23.5 respectively; p < 0.001 for all). Sensitivity of individual signs was low (< 20%) but specificity high (98-100%). If any one of oral thrush, hepatomegaly, splenomegaly, lymphadenopathy, diaper dermatitis, weight < 50^thcentile are present, sensitivity for HIV infection amongst HIV-exposed infants was 86%. These algorithms performed similarly when used to predict severe immune suppression.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A combination of physical findings is helpful in identifying infants most likely to be HIV-infected. This may inform management algorithms and provide guidance for focused laboratory testing in some settings, and should be further validated in these settings and elsewhere.</p

Incidence of stillbirth and perinatal mortality and their associated factors among women delivering at Harare Maternity Hospital, Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND: Death of an infant in utero or at birth has always been a devastating experience for the mother and of concern in clinical practice. Infant mortality remains a challenge in the care of pregnant women worldwide, but particularly for developing countries and the need to understand contributory factors is crucial for addressing appropriate perinatal health. METHODS: Using information available in obstetric records for all deliveries (17,072 births) at Harare Maternity Hospital, Zimbabwe, we conducted a cross-sectional retrospective analysis of a one-year data, (1997–1998) to assess demographic and obstetric risk factors for stillbirth and early neonatal death. We estimated risk of stillbirth and early neonatal death for each potential risk factor. RESULTS: The annual frequency of stillbirth was 56 per 1,000 total births. Women delivering stillbirths and early neonatal deaths were less likely to receive prenatal care (adjusted relative risk [RR] = 2.54; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.19–2.94 and RR = 2.52; 95% CI 1.63–3.91), which for combined stillbirths and early neonatal deaths increased with increasing gestational age (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 3.98, HR = 7.49 at 28 and 40 weeks of gestation, respectively). Rural residence was associated with risk of infant dying in utero, (RR = 1.33; 95% CI 1.12–1.59), and the risk of death increased with increasing gestational age (HR = 1.04, HR = 1.69, at 28 and 40 weeks of gestation, respectively). Older maternal age was associated with risk of death (HR = 1.50; 95% CI 1.21–1.84). Stillbirths were less likely to be delivered by Cesarean section (RR = 0.64; 95% CI 0.51–0.79), but more likely to be delivered as breech (RR = 4.65; 95% CI 3.88–5.57, as were early neonatal deaths (RR = 3.38; 95% CI 1.64–6.96). CONCLUSION: The frequency of stillbirth, especially macerated, is high, 27 per 1000 total births. Early prenatal care could help reduce perinatal death linking the woman to the health care system, increasing the probability that she would seek timely emergency care that would reduce the likelihood of death of her infant in utero. Improved quality of obstetric care during labor and delivery may help reduce the number of fresh stillbirths and early neonatal deaths

High Uptake of Exclusive Breastfeeding and Reduced Early Post-Natal HIV Transmission

BACKGROUND. Empirical data showing the clear benefits of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for HIV prevention are needed to encourage implementation of lactation support programs for HIV-infected women in low resource settings among whom replacement feeding is unsafe. We conducted a prospective, observational study in Lusaka, Zambia, to test the hypothesis that EBF is associated with a lower risk of postnatal HIV transmission than non-EBF. METHODS AND RESULTS. As part of a randomized trial of early weaning, 958 HIV-infected women and their infants were recruited and all were encouraged to breastfeed exclusively to 4 months. Single-dose nevirapine was provided to prevent transmission. Regular samples were collected from infants to 24 months of age and tested by PCR. Detailed measurements of actual feeding behaviors were collected to examine, in an observational analysis, associations between feeding practices and postnatal HIV transmission. Uptake of EBF was high with 84% of women reporting only EBF cumulatively to 4 months. Post-natal HIV transmission before 4 months was significantly lower (p = 0.004) among EBF (0.040 95% CI: 0.024–0.055) than non-EBF infants (0.102 95% CI: 0.047–0.157); time-dependent Relative Hazard (RH) of transmission due to non-EBF = 3.48 (95% CI: 1.71–7.08). There were no significant differences in the severity of disease between EBF and non-EBF mothers and the association remained significant (RH = 2.68 95% CI: 1.28–5.62) after adjusting for maternal CD4 count, plasma viral load, syphilis screening results and low birth weight. CONCLUSIONS. Non-EBF more than doubles the risk of early postnatal HIV transmission. Programs to support EBF should be expanded universally in low resource settings. EBF is an affordable, feasible, acceptable, safe and sustainable practice that also reduces HIV transmission providing HIV-infected women with a means to protect their children's lives. TRIAL REGISTRATION. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00310726National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; National Institutes of Health (R01 HD 39611, R01 HD 40777); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Global AIDS Program; Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation; USAID Country Research (GHS-A-00-00020-00

Translating global recommendations on HIV and infant feeding to the local context: the development of culturally sensitive counselling tools in the Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the process used to develop an integrated set of culturally sensitive, evidence-based counselling tools (job aids) by using qualitative participatory research. The aim of the intervention was to contribute to improving infant feeding counselling services for HIV positive women in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. METHODS: Formative research using a combination of qualitative methods preceded the development of the intervention and mapped existing practices, perceptions and attitudes towards HIV and infant feeding (HIV/IF) among mothers, counsellors and community members. Intervention Mapping (IM) protocol guided the development of the overall intervention strategy. Theories of behaviour change, a review of the international HIV/IF guidelines and formative research findings contributed to the definition of performance and learning objectives. Key communication messages and colourful graphic illustrations related to infant feeding in the context of HIV were then developed and/or adapted from existing generic materials. Draft materials were field tested with intended audiences and subjected to stakeholder technical review. RESULTS: An integrated set of infant feeding counselling tools, referred to as 'job aids', was developed and included brochures on feeding methods that were found to be socially and culturally acceptable, a Question and Answer Guide for counsellors, a counselling card on the risk of transmission of HIV, and an infant feeding toolbox for demonstration. Each brochure describes the steps to ensure safer infant feeding using simple language and images based on local ideas and resources. The brochures are meant to serve as both a reference material during infant feeding counselling in the ongoing prevention of mother to child transmission (pMTCT) of HIV programme and as take home material for the mother. CONCLUSION: The study underscores the importance of formative research and a systematic theory based approach to developing an intervention aimed at improving counselling and changing customary feeding practices. The identification of perceived barriers and facilitators for change contributed to developing the key counselling messages and graphics, reflecting the socio-economic reality, cultural beliefs and norms of mothers and their significant others