Self-selection and risk sharing in a modern world of lifelong annuities - Abstract of the London Discussion

This abstract relates to the following paper: Gerrard, R., Hiabu, M., Kyriakou, I. and Nielsen, J. P. (2018) Self-selection and risk sharing in a modern world of lifelong annuities ‐ Abstract of the London Discussion. British Actuarial Journal. Cambridge University Press, 23. doi: 10.1017/S135732171800020X

Self-selection and risk sharing in a modern world of life-long annuities

Communicating a pension product well is as important as optimising the financial value. In a recent study, we showed that up to 80% of the value of a pension lump sum could be lost if customer communication failed. In this paper, we extend the simple customer interaction of the earlier contribution to the more challenging lifetime annuity case. Using a simple mobile phone device, the pension customer can select the life-long optimal investment strategy within minutes. The financial risk trade-off is presented as a trade-off between the pension paid and the number of years the life-long annuity is guaranteed. The pension payment decreases when investment security increases. The necessary underlying mathematical financial hedging theory is included in the stud

The archaeology of earthquakes: The application of adaptive cycles to seismically-affected communities in late medieval Europe

The study of archaeseismology (or ‘earthquake archaeology’) focuses mainly on the analysis of earthquakes at an archaeological scale, either in order to reconstruct the parameters of past seismic events (ie. their intensity, chronology, magnitude, epicentre, etc) or else to measure their impact on archaeological sites (Galadini et al., 2006; Ambraseys, 2006; Rodríguez-Pascua et al., 2011). This approach has its critics because archaeological methodologies such as excavation, field survey and remote sensing, or standard archaeological approaches to context recording, material culture and the integration of other sources of information such as history or ethnography are often laid aside (Jusseret, 2014). In short, archaeoseismology reflects far better the interests of palaeoseimologists than archaeologists (Caputo and Helly, 2008; Silva et al., 2011; Sintubin, 2011) and can be perceived as an ancillary discipline relegated to the gathering of historical seismic catalogues (Caputo and Helly, 2008; Guidoboni and Ebel, 2009). Among the topics less well studied are those tactics elaborated by past societies to cope with the damage caused by earthquakes and to increase their preparedness for future seismic events. In this paper we apply resilience theory (Holling and Gunderson, 2002; Redman and Kinzig, 2003; Redman, 2005) which emphasises the chaîne opératoire (‘chain of actions’) put in place by medieval communities and we use a modern risk assessment workflow to assess the range of the strategies adopted (Smith and Petley, 2009). In particular, the importance of a multi-disciplinary perspective is underlined, one which integrates diverse sources of information ranging from archaeological to geological, historical, architectural, iconographical and ethnographical data. A unifying approach which combines evidence from the humanities and natural sciences in a common framework is fundamental in order to evaluate fully the diversity of responses adopted. Illustrative case studies are drawn from well-documented events for which fresh evidence has been gathered for the Armedea project (Archaeology of medieval earthquakes in Europe, 1000–1550 AD; Forlin et al., 2015)

Industry Career Guide: Manufacturing

Manufacturing sector in the Philippines has one of the largest contributions to the growth of the economy. Throughout the years, starting from the 1970s, the manufacturing sector has been one of the driving forces behind the country’s growth. It has proven its importance in the economy because of benefits such as employment generation and technological innovation

Long-run savings and investment strategy optimization

We focus on automatic strategies to optimize life cycle savings and investment. Classical optimal savings theory establishes that, given the level of risk aversion, a saver would keep the same relative amount invested in risky assets at any given time. We show that, when optimizing lifecycle investment, performance and risk assessment have to take into account the investor's risk aversion and the maximum amount the investor could lose, simultaneously. When risk aversion and maximum possible loss are considered jointly, an optimal savings strategy is obtained, which follows from constant rather than relative absolute risk aversion. This result is fundamental to prove that if risk aversion and the maximum possible loss are both high, then holding a constant amount invested in the risky asset is optimal for a standard lifetime saving/pension process and outperforms some other simple strategies. Performance comparisons are based on downside risk-adjusted equivalence that is used in our illustration

Transverse Shifts in Paraxial Spinoptics

The paraxial approximation of a classical spinning photon is shown to yield an "exotic particle" in the plane transverse to the propagation. The previously proposed and observed position shift between media with different refractive indices is modified when the interface is curved, and there also appears a novel, momentum [direction] shift. The laws of thin lenses are modified accordingly.Comment: 3 pages, no figures. One detail clarified, some misprints corrected and references adde

Retesting in Selection: A Meta-Analysis of Practice Effects for Tests of Cognitive Ability

Previous studies indicate that as many as 25-50% of applicants in organizational and educational settings are retested with measures of cognitive ability. Researchers have shown that practice effects are found across measurement occasions such that scores improve when these applicants retest. This study uses meta-analysis to summarize the results of 50 studies of practice effects for tests of cognitive ability. Results from 107 samples and 134,436 participants revealed an adjusted overall effect size of .26. Moderator analyses indicated that effects were larger when practice was accompanied by test coaching, and when identical forms were used. Additional research is needed to understand the impact of retesting on the validity inferences drawn from test scores

Chromatin Profiles of Chromosomally Integrated Human Herpesvirus-6A

Human herpesvirus-6A (HHV-6A) and 6B (HHV-6B) are two closely related betaherpesviruses that are associated with various diseases including seizures and encephalitis. The HHV-6A/B genomes have been shown to be present in an integrated state in the telomeres of latently infected cells. In addition, integration of HHV-6A/B in germ cells has resulted in individuals harboring this inherited chromosomally integrated HHV-6A/B (iciHHV-6) in every cell of their body. Until now, the viral transcriptome and the epigenetic modifications that contribute to the silencing of the integrated virus genome remain elusive. In the current study, we used a patient-derived iciHHV-6A cell line to assess the global viral gene expression profile by RNA-seq, and the chromatin profiles by MNase-seq and ChIP-seq analyses. In addition, we investigated an in vitro generated cell line (293-HHV-6A) that expresses GFP upon the addition of agents commonly used to induce herpesvirus reactivation such as TPA. No viral gene expression including miRNAs was detected from the HHV-6A genomes, indicating that the integrated virus is transcriptionally silent. Intriguingly, upon stimulation of the 293-HHV-6A cell line with TPA, only foreign promoters in the virus genome were activated, while all HHV-6A promoters remained completely silenced. The transcriptional silencing of latent HHV-6A was further supported by MNase-seq results, which demonstrate that the latent viral genome resides in a highly condensed nucleosome-associated state. We further explored the enrichment profiles of histone modifications via ChIP-seq analysis. Our results indicated that the HHV-6 genome is modestly enriched with the repressive histone marks H3K9me3/H3K27me3 and does not possess the active histone modifications H3K27ac/H3K4me3. Overall, these results indicate that HHV-6 genomes reside in a condensed chromatin state, providing insight into the epigenetic mechanisms associated with the silencing of the integrated HHV-6A genome

Arthroscopic Excision of Medial Knee Plica: A Meta-Analysis of Outcomes

A meta-analysis was performed to assess the outcomes following surgical intervention for medial knee plica. A literature search of Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL and Cochrane CENTRAL was performed using relevant key words. The primary outcome was patient-reported postoperative scores of "good" and "excellent". Meta-analyses were performed using a random effects model. The literature search identified 731 articles. After removing duplicates and those not meeting the inclusion criteria, 12 articles reporting on a total of 643 knees were included for analysis, and of these, 7 articles including 235 knees were used for meta-analysis. The overall rate of good and excellent outcomes following surgery was estimated at 84.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 72.8-91.4). In those cases that had non-surgical therapy prior to surgery, the rate of good and excellent outcomes of surgery was estimated at 76.1% (95% CI, 60.1-87). Arthroscopic surgical management of symptomatic medial knee plica results in favourable outcomes. Our results suggest that arthroscopic surgical excision should be considered as a treatment modality in patients with pathological medial plica disease of the knee either as a first-line treatment or when symptoms have not responded to non-surgical interventions. IV

The archaeology of a landslide: Unravelling the Azores earthquake disaster of 1522 and its consequences

The multidisciplinary research described here shows how archaeologists can help reconstruct past seismic episodes and understand the subsequent relief operation, rehabilitation, and reconstruction processes. In October 1522, a major earthquake and landslide struck the then capital of the Azores, Vila Franca do Campo, 1500 km from the European mainland. Damage was extensive, destroying key monuments, affecting most of the inhabited area, and leaving few survivors among the early colonists. The results from twenty-six archaeological trenches, geological and geoarchaeological investigations, and documentary analysis are reviewed here. Distinctive archaeological deposits are identified and explained, using the high density of artefacts and the erosional contact between the landslide and the pre-1522 palaeosol to reconstruct the episode in detail