Dynamic scaling approach to study time series fluctuations

We propose a new approach for properly analyzing stochastic time series by mapping the dynamics of time series fluctuations onto a suitable nonequilibrium surface-growth problem. In this framework, the fluctuation sampling time interval plays the role of time variable, whereas the physical time is treated as the analog of spatial variable. In this way we found that the fluctuations of many real-world time series satisfy the analog of the Family-Viscek dynamic scaling ansatz. This finding permits to use the powerful tools of kinetic roughening theory to classify, model, and forecast the fluctuations of real-world time series.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

[Reliability of Commercial Tests for Hepatitis C Virus].

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Emerging properties of financial time series in the “Game of Life”

We explore the spatial complexity of Conway’s “Game of Life,” a prototypical cellular automaton by means of a geometrical procedure generating a two-dimensional random walk from a bidimensional lattice with periodical boundaries. The one-dimensional projection of this process is analyzed and it turns out that some of its statistical properties resemble the so-called stylized facts observed in financial time series. The scope and meaning of this result are discussed from the viewpoint of complex systems. In particular, we stress how the supposed peculiarities of financial time series are, often, overrated in their importance

Rationing tests for drug-resistant tuberculosis - who are we prepared to miss?

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) increases the likelihood of treatment success and interrupts transmission. Resource-constrained settings use risk profiling to ration the use of drug susceptibility testing (DST). Nevertheless, no studies have yet quantified how many patients with DR-TB this strategy will miss. METHODS: A total of 1,545 subjects, who presented to Lima health centres with possible TB symptoms, completed a clinic-epidemiological questionnaire and provided sputum samples for TB culture and DST. The proportion of drug resistance in this population was calculated and the data was analysed to demonstrate the effect of rationing tests to patients with multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) risk factors on the number of tests needed and corresponding proportion of missed patients with DR-TB. RESULTS: Overall, 147/1,545 (9.5%) subjects had culture-positive TB, of which 32 (21.8%) had DR-TB (MDR, 13.6%; isoniazid mono-resistant, 7.5%; rifampicin mono-resistant, 0.7%). A total of 553 subjects (35.8%) reported one or more MDR-TB risk factors; of these, 506 (91.5%; 95% CI, 88.9-93.7%) did not have TB, 32/553 (5.8%; 95% CI, 3.4-8.1%) had drug-susceptible TB, and only 15/553 (2.7%; 95% CI, 1.5-4.4%) had DR-TB. Rationing DST to those with an MDR-TB risk factor would have missed more than half of the DR-TB population (17/32, 53.2%; 95% CI, 34.7-70.9). CONCLUSIONS: Rationing DST based on known MDR-TB risk factors misses an unacceptable proportion of patients with drug-resistance in settings with ongoing DR-TB transmission. Investment in diagnostic services to allow universal DST for people with presumptive TB should be a high priority

Evidence of suppression of onchocerciasis transmission in the Venezuelan Amazonian focus.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals for onchocerciasis elimination in Latin America by 2015. Most of the six previously endemic countries are attaining this goal by implementing twice a year (and in some foci, quarterly) mass ivermectin (Mectizan®) distribution. Elimination of transmission has been verified in Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico. Challenges remain in the Amazonian focus straddling Venezuela and Brazil, where the disease affects the hard-to-reach Yanomami indigenous population. We provide evidence of suppression of Onchocerca volvulus transmission by Simulium guianense s.l. in 16 previously hyperendemic Yanomami communities in southern Venezuela after 15 years of 6-monthly and 5 years of 3-monthly mass ivermectin treatment. METHODS: Baseline and monitoring and evaluation parasitological, ophthalmological, entomological and serological surveys were conducted in selected sentinel and extra-sentinel communities of the focus throughout the implementation of the programme. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2012–2015, clinico-parasitological surveys indicate a substantial decrease in skin microfilarial prevalence and intensity of infection; accompanied by no evidence (or very low prevalence and intensity) of ocular microfilariae in the examined population. Of a total of 51,341 S. guianense flies tested by PCR none had L3 infection (heads only). Prevalence of infective flies and seasonal transmission potentials in 2012–2013 were, respectively, under 1 % and 20 L3/person/transmission season. Serology in children aged 1–10 years demonstrated that although 26 out of 396 (7 %) individuals still had Ov-16 antibodies, only 4/218 (2 %) seropositives were aged 1–5 years. CONCLUSIONS: We report evidence of recent transmission and morbidity suppression in some communities of the focus representing 75 % of the Yanomami population and 70 % of all known communities. We conclude that onchocerciasis transmission could be feasibly interrupted in the Venezuelan Amazonian focus. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1313-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Quantifying the effect of uncertainty in input parameters in a simplified bidomain model of partial thickness ischaemia

Reduced blood flow in the coronary arteries can lead to damaged heart tissue (myocardial ischaemia). Although one method for detecting myocardial ischaemia involves changes in the ST segment of the electrocardiogram, the relationship between these changes and subendocardial ischaemia is not fully understood. In this study, we modelled ST-segment epicardial potentials in a slab model of cardiac ventricular tissue, with a central ischaemic region, using the bidomain model, which considers conduction longitudinal, transverse and normal to the cardiac fibres. We systematically quantified the effect of uncertainty on the input parameters, fibre rotation angle, ischaemic depth, blood conductivity and six bidomain conductivities, on outputs that characterise the epicardial potential distribution. We found that three typical types of epicardial potential distributions (one minimum over the central ischaemic region, a tripole of minima, and two minima flanking a central maximum) could all occur for a wide range of ischaemic depths. In addition, the positions of the minima were affected by both the fibre rotation angle and the ischaemic depth, but not by changes in the conductivity values. We also showed that the magnitude of ST depression is affected only by changes in the longitudinal and normal conductivities, but not by the transverse conductivities

Application of Sustainable Remediation Techniques for Heavy Metal Reduction in Polluted Rivers in Mining Zones: Study Area Ponce Enriquez

Mining activity in Ecuador is primarily artisanal and small-scale. Rivers near the mining county of Camilo Ponce Enriquez have been severely affected by this type of mining. A field study was conducted encompassing 29 sites on the rivers Siete, Fermin, and Pagua during sampling campaigns that took place in both dry (December) and wet seasons (February). Physiochemical parameters and heavy metal concentrations were measured to enable environmental characterization of the rivers. Results revealed that most of the sampled sites had bad water quality and exceeded the environmental limits of heavy metal concentrations set by the Ecuadorian government. A parallel pilot investigation was performed for reducing the heavy metal concentrations in water ecosystems polluted by mining activities using bioremediation techniques. The bioremediation technique applied in the study used bacteria from a wastewater digestor and sugarcane bagasse as a carbon source to support the bacterial community. Sulfide was measured to monitor bacterial activity in experimental bioreactors containing local acid mine drainage (AMD). The results obtained were encouraging, as a significant decrease in heavy metal concentration was observed to nearly the level of Ecuadorian environmental regulations for Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Pb, and Zn concentrations in freshwater in a set of bioreactors. Keywords: acid drainage, artisanal mining, bioremediation, heavy metals, pollution. Resumen La actividad minera en el Ecuador es principalmente artesanal y de pequeña escala. Los ríos cercanos al área minera de Camilo Ponce Enríquez se han visto severamente afectados por este tipo de minería. Se realizó un estudio de campo en 29 sitios sobre los ríos Siete, Fermín y Pagua durante campañas de muestreo que se realizaron tanto en la época seca (diciembre) como en época húmeda (febrero). Se midieron parámetros fisicoquímicos y concentraciones de metales pesados para permitir la caracterización ambiental de los ríos. Los resultados revelaron que la mayoría de los sitios muestreados tienen agua de mala calidad y excedieron los límites ambientales de concentración de metales pesados establecidos por el gobierno ecuatoriano. También se realizó una investigación piloto paralela destinada a reducir las concentraciones de metales pesados en ecosistemas acuáticos contaminados por actividades mineras utilizando técnicas de biorremediación. La técnica de biorremediación aplicada en el estudio utilizó bacterias de un digestor de aguas residuales y bagazo de caña de azúcar como fuente de carbono para apoyar a la comunidad bacteriana. Se midió el sulfuro para controlar la actividad bacteriana en biorreactores experimentales que contenían drenaje ácido minero (AMD) local. Los resultados obtenidos son alentadores ya que en un conjunto de biorreactores se observó una disminución significativa de las concentraciones de algunos metales pesados alcanzando casi en su mayoría el nivel permisible según las regulaciones ambientales ecuatorianas para las concentraciones de Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Pb y Zn en agua dulce. Palabras Clave: drenajes ácidos, minería artesanal, biorremediación, metales pesados, contaminación

Effect of Global Cardiac Ischemia on Human Ventricular Fibrillation: Insights from a Multi-scale Mechanistic Model of the Human Heart

Acute regional ischemia in the heart can lead to cardiac arrhythmias such as ventricular fibrillation (VF), which in turn compromise cardiac output and result in secondary global cardiac ischemia. The secondary ischemia may influence the underlying arrhythmia mechanism. A recent clinical study documents the effect of global cardiac ischaemia on the mechanisms of VF. During 150 seconds of global ischemia the dominant frequency of activation decreased, while after reperfusion it increased rapidly. At the same time the complexity of epicardial excitation, measured as the number of epicardical phase singularity points, remained approximately constant during ischemia. Here we perform numerical studies based on these clinical data and propose explanations for the observed dynamics of the period and complexity of activation patterns. In particular, we study the effects on ischemia in pseudo-1D and 2D cardiac tissue models as well as in an anatomically accurate model of human heart ventricles. We demonstrate that the fall of dominant frequency in VF during secondary ischemia can be explained by an increase in extracellular potassium, while the increase during reperfusion is consistent with washout of potassium and continued activation of the ATP-dependent potassium channels. We also suggest that memory effects are responsible for the observed complexity dynamics. In addition, we present unpublished clinical results of individual patient recordings and propose a way of estimating extracellular potassium and activation of ATP-dependent potassium channels from these measurements