Utility, subjective probability, their interaction, and variance preferences

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66507/2/10.1177_002200276200600106.pd

Hamilton's principle: why is the integrated difference of kinetic and potential energy minimized?

I present an intuitive answer to an often asked question: why is the integrated difference K-U between the kinetic and potential energy the quantity to be minimized in Hamilton's principle? Using elementary arguments, I map the problem of finding the path of a moving particle connecting two points to that of finding the minimum potential energy of a static string. The mapping implies that the configuration of a non--stretchable string of variable tension corresponds to the spatial path dictated by the Principle of Least Action; that of a stretchable string in space-time is the one dictated by Hamilton's principle. This correspondence provides the answer to the question above: while a downward force curves the trajectory of a particle in the (x,t) plane downward, an upward force of the same magnitude stretches the string to the same configuration x(t).Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to the American Journal of Physic

Thermotectonic evolution of an extensional dome: the Cenozoic Osogovo-Lisets core complex (Kraishte zone, western Bulgaria)

The Kraishte region of Bulgaria is located at the junction of the Balkanides and Hellenides-Dinarides tectonic belts. Fission-track analysis on both apatites and zircons documents the Cenozoic exhumation of a Precambrian basement bounded by low-angle detachments. Late Eocene-Oligocene extension began prior to 47Ma and was dominantly in a top-to-the-southwest direction, confirmed by the sense of younging of apatite and zircon ages. This crustal extension controlled the formation of half-graben sedimentary basins on the hanging walls of the detachments. Thermal modelling of these hanging wall units provides evidence for heat transfer across the detachments from a relatively warm rising footwall. From 32 to 29Ma, pervasive magmatic activity resulted in the emplacement of rhyolitic to dacitic subvolcanic bodies and dykes, along with intrusion of the Osogovo granite. The results give evidence for extension in the southern Balkan older than, and separated from, the Miocene to Quaternary Aegean extension. This might reflect transtension during northeastward extrusion and rotation of continental fragments around the western boundary of Moesia. Eocene-Oligocene extension seems to have been controlled by the distribution of earlier thickening all around the Carpatho-Balkanic orocline, which is reflected by the Cretaceous emplacement of the Morava Nappe in the Kraisht

Active Mass Under Pressure

After a historical introduction to Poisson's equation for Newtonian gravity, its analog for static gravitational fields in Einstein's theory is reviewed. It appears that the pressure contribution to the active mass density in Einstein's theory might also be noticeable at the Newtonian level. A form of its surprising appearance, first noticed by Richard Chase Tolman, was discussed half a century ago in the Hamburg Relativity Seminar and is resolved here.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figure

A nonparametric urn-based approach to interacting failing systems with an application to credit risk modeling

In this paper we propose a new nonparametric approach to interacting failing systems (FS), that is systems whose probability of failure is not negligible in a fixed time horizon, a typical example being firms and financial bonds. The main purpose when studying a FS is to calculate the probability of default and the distribution of the number of failures that may occur during the observation period. A model used to study a failing system is defined default model. In particular, we present a general recursive model constructed by the means of inter- acting urns. After introducing the theoretical model and its properties we show a first application to credit risk modeling, showing how to assess the idiosyncratic probability of default of an obligor and the joint probability of failure of a set of obligors in a portfolio of risks, that are divided into reliability classes

Anomalous Behavior of the Contact Process with Aging

The effect of power-law aging on a contact process is studied by simulation and using a mean-field approach. We find that the system may approach its stationary state in a nontrivial, nonmonotonous way. For the particular value of the aging exponent, $\alpha=1$, we observe a rich set of behaviors: depending on the process parameters, the relaxation to the stationary state proceeds as $1/\ln t$ or via a power law with a nonuniversal exponent. Simulation results suggest that for $0<\alpha<1$, the absorbing-state phase transition is in the universality class of directed percolation.Comment: 4 pages revtex (twocolumn, psfig), 3 figure

Dynamics & Predictions in the Co-Event Interpretation

Sorkin has introduced a new, observer independent, interpretation of quantum mechanics that can give a successful realist account of the 'quantum microworld' as well as explaining how classicality emerges at the level of observable events for a range of systems including single time 'Copenhagen measurements'. This 'co-event interpretation' presents us with a new ontology, in which a single 'co-event' is real. A new ontology necessitates a review of the dynamical & predictive mechanism of a theory, and in this paper we begin the process by exploring means of expressing the dynamical and predictive content of histories theories in terms of co-events.Comment: 35 pages. Revised after refereein

Piecewise Linear Models for the Quasiperiodic Transition to Chaos

We formulate and study analytically and computationally two families of piecewise linear degree one circle maps. These families offer the rare advantage of being non-trivial but essentially solvable models for the phenomenon of mode-locking and the quasi-periodic transition to chaos. For instance, for these families, we obtain complete solutions to several questions still largely unanswered for families of smooth circle maps. Our main results describe (1) the sets of maps in these families having some prescribed rotation interval; (2) the boundaries between zero and positive topological entropy and between zero length and non-zero length rotation interval; and (3) the structure and bifurcations of the attractors in one of these families. We discuss the interpretation of these maps as low-order spline approximations to the classic ``sine-circle'' map and examine more generally the implications of our results for the case of smooth circle maps. We also mention a possible connection to recent experiments on models of a driven Josephson junction.Comment: 75 pages, plain TeX, 47 figures (available on request

Linear frictional forces cause orbits to neither circularize nor precess

For the undamped Kepler potential the lack of precession has historically been understood in terms of the Runge-Lenz symmetry. For the damped Kepler problem this result may be understood in terms of the generalization of Poisson structure to damped systems suggested recently by Tarasov[1]. In this generalized algebraic structure the orbit-averaged Runge-Lenz vector remains a constant in the linearly damped Kepler problem to leading order in the damping coeComment: 16 pages. 1 figure, Rewrite for resubmissio

Epidemic processes in complex networks

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio