Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases

Background Mathematical models have become invaluable management tools for epidemiologists, both shedding light on the mechanisms underlying observed dynamics as well as making quantitative predictions on the effectiveness of different control measures. Here, we explain how substantial biases are introduced by two important, yet largely ignored, assumptions at the core of the vast majority of such models. Methods and Findings First, we use analytical methods to show that (i) ignoring the latent period or (ii) making the common assumption of exponentially distributed latent and infectious periods (when including the latent period) always results in underestimating the basic reproductive ratio of an infection from outbreak data. We then proceed to illustrate these points by fitting epidemic models to data from an influenza outbreak. Finally, we document how such unrealistic a priori assumptions concerning model structure give rise to systematically overoptimistic predictions on the outcome of potential management options. Conclusion This work aims to highlight that, when developing models for public health use, we need to pay careful attention to the intrinsic assumptions embedded within classical frameworks

Provinciality and the Art World: The Midland Group 1961- 1977

This paper takes as its focus the Midland Group Gallery in order to first, make a case for the consideration of the geographies of art galleries. Second, highlight the importance of galleries in the context of cultural geographies of the sixties. Third, discuss the role of provinciality in the operation of art worlds. In so doing it explicates one set of geographies surrounding the gallery – those of the local, regional and international networks that connected to produce art works and art space. It reveals how the interactions between places and practices outside of metropolitan and regional hierarchies provides a more nuanced insight into how art worlds operated during the sixties, a period of growing internationalism of art, and how contested definitions of the provincial played an integral role in this. The paper charts the operations of the Midland Group Gallery and the spaces that it occupied to demonstrate how it was representative of a post-war discourse of provincialism and a corresponding re-evaluation of regional cultural activity

Analysis of Flow Angularity Repeatability Tests in the NTF

An extensive data base of flow angularity repeatability measurements from four NTF check standard model tests is analyzed for statistical consistency and to characterize the results for prediction of angle-of-attack uncertainty for customer tests. A procedure for quality assurance for flow angularity measurements during customer tests is also presented. The efficacy of the procedure is tested using results from a customer test

UK Large-scale Wind Power Programme from 1970 to 1990: the Carmarthen Bay experiments and the Musgrove Vertical-Axis Turbines

This article describes the development of the Musgrove Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT) concept, the UK ‘Carmarthen Bay’ wind turbine test programme, and UK government’s wind power programme to 1990. One of the most significant developments in the story of British wind power occurred during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, with the development of the Musgrove vertical axis wind turbine and its inclusion within the UK Government’s wind turbine test programme. Evolving from a supervisor’s idea for an undergraduate project at Reading University, the Musgrove VAWT was once seen as an able competitor to the horizontal axis wind systems that were also being encouraged at the time by both the UK government and the Central Electricity Generating Board, the then nationalised electricity utility for England and Wales. During the 1980s and 1990s the most developed Musgrove VAWT system, along with three other commercial turbine designs was tested at Carmarthen Bay, South Wales as part of a national wind power test programme. From these developmental tests, operational data was collected and lessons learnt, which were incorporated into subsequent wind power operations.http://dx.doi.org/10.1260/03095240677860621

The challenges facing public libraries in the Big Society: The role of volunteers, and the issues that surround their use in England

The use of volunteers in English public libraries is nothing new, however their use is becoming ever greater and one may argue that we are increasingly seeing a mixed economy of public library provision, in the wider arena of the Big Society. This paper presents the findings of a Delphi Study of 15 library managers undertaken as part of a Professional Doctorate exploring the challenges facing public libraries in England today, particularly focusing on volunteer use. An overview of relevant supporting literature is provided to help contextualize the research, particularly focusing on concepts such as the political background surrounding policy development, community engagement, the Big Society, and volunteering. Explanation of how the Delphi Study was conducted is given, together with a discussion of the key findings. Results show that opinions of library managers cover a broad spectrum. Although volunteer use is generally viewed by the respondents as a good thing, with potential to further enhance a service and aid community engagement, there are also a number of concerns. These concerns particularly relate to the idea of the volunteer as a replacement to paid staff rather than an enhancement to the service. Other key concerns relate to the quality of service provision, the rationale behind volunteer use, and the capacity of communities to deliver. Volunteer use in public libraries on this scale is a new phenomenon, and the longevity of such a development is largely unknown. This raises the question as to whether this is simply a large scale ideological experiment, or a move to even greater community engagement

Call Me Caitlyn: Making and making over the 'authentic' transgender body in Anglo-American popular culture

A conception of transgender identity as an ‘authentic’ gendered core ‘trapped’ within a mismatched corporeality, and made tangible through corporeal transformations, has attained unprecedented legibility in contemporary Anglo-American media. Whilst pop-cultural articulations of this discourse have received some scholarly attention, the question of why this 'wrong body' paradigm has solidified as the normative explanation for gender transition within the popular media remains underexplored. This paper argues that this discourse has attained cultural pre-eminence through its convergence with a broader media and commercial zeitgeist, in which corporeal alteration and maintenance are perceived as means of accessing one’s ‘authentic’ self. I analyse the media representations of two transgender celebrities: Caitlyn Jenner and Nadia Almada, alongside the reality TV show TRANSform Me, exploring how these women’s gender transitions have been discursively aligned with a cultural imperative for all women, cisgender or trans, to display their authentic femininity through bodily work. This demonstrates how established tropes of authenticity-via-bodily transformation, have enabled transgender to become culturally legible through the wrong body trope. Problematically, I argue, this process has worked to demarcate ideals of ‘acceptable’ transgender subjectivity: self-sufficient, normatively feminine, and eager to embrace the possibilities for happiness and social integration provided by the commercial domain

Just how difficult can it be counting up R&D funding for emerging technologies (and is tech mining with proxy measures going to be any better?)

Decision makers considering policy or strategy related to the development of emerging technologies expect high quality data on the support for different technological options. A natural starting point would be R&D funding statistics. This paper explores the limitations of such aggregated data in relation to the substance and quantification of funding for emerging technologies. Using biotechnology as an illustrative case, we test the utility of a novel taxonomy to demonstrate the endemic weaknesses in the availability and quality of data from public and private sources. Using the same taxonomy, we consider the extent to which tech-mining presents an alternative, or potentially complementary, way to determine support for emerging technologies using proxy measures such as patents and scientific publications

A Generic Framework for Criterion-Referenced Assessment of Undergraduate Essays

This paper presents a brief review of the relative merits of norm-referenced and criterion-referenced assessment of undergraduate students' written work. Acknowledging that there are both positive and negative aspects of criterion referencing, a generic framework for such assessment of undergraduate essays is presented. It comprises criteria and standards (organised by `dimensions of achievement', i.e. content, process, affect and skills), proficiency standards for English language and communication competence, and cartographic and graphic skills. Problems of implementation include the size and complexity of the framework and the need to interpret and clarify the criteria and standards for students

Farm systems assessment of bioenergy feedstock production: Integrating bio-economic models and life cycle analysis approaches

Climate change and energy security concerns have driven the development of policies that encourage bioenergy production. Meeting EU targets for the consumption of transport fuels from bioenergy by 2020 will require a large increase in the production of bioenergy feedstock. Initially an increase in ‘first generation’ biofuels was observed, however ‘food competition’ concerns have generated interest in second generation biofuels (SGBs). These SGBs can be produced from co-products (e.g. cereal straw) or energy crops (e.g. miscanthus), with the former largely negating food competition concerns. In order to assess the sustainability of feedstock supply for SGBs, the financial, environmental and energy costs and benefits of the farm system must be quantified. Previous research has captured financial costs and benefits through linear programming (LP) approaches, whilst environmental and energy metrics have been largely been undertaken within life cycle analysis (LCA) frameworks. Assessing aspects of the financial, environmental and energy sustainability of supplying co-product second generation biofuel (CPSGB) feedstocks at the farm level requires a framework that permits the trade-offs between these objectives to be quantified and understood. The development of a modelling framework for Managing Energy and Emissions Trade-Offs in Agriculture (MEETA Model) that combines bio-economic process modelling and LCA is presented together with input data parameters obtained from literature and industry sources. The MEETA model quantifies arable farm inputs and outputs in terms of financial, energy and emissions results. The model explicitly captures fertiliser: crop-yield relationships, plus the incorporation of straw or removal for sale, with associated nutrient impacts of incorporation/removal on the following crop in the rotation. Key results of crop-mix, machinery use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per kg of crop product and energy use per hectare are in line with previous research and industry survey findings. Results show that the gross margin – energy trade-off is £36 GJ−1, representing the gross margin forgone by maximising net farm energy cf. maximising farm gross margin. The gross margin–GHG emission trade-off is £0.15 kg−1 CO2 eq, representing the gross margin forgone per kg of CO2 eq reduced when GHG emissions are minimised cf. maximising farm gross margin. The energy–GHG emission trade-off is 0.03 GJ kg−1 CO2 eq quantifying the reduction in net energy from the farm system per kg of CO2 eq reduced when minimising GHG emissions cf. maximising net farm energy. When both farm gross margin and net farm energy are maximised all the cereal straw is baled for sale. Sensitivity analysis of the model in relation to different prices of cereal straw shows that it becomes financially optimal to incorporate wheat straw at price of £11 t−1 for this co-product. Local market conditions for straw and farmer attitudes towards incorporation or sale of straw will impact on the straw price at which farmers will supply this potential bioenergy feedstock and represent important areas for future research