Longitudinal machine learning modeling of MS patient trajectories improves predictions of disability progression

Background and Objectives: Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem. Methods: We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used. Results: We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features. Conclusions: Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS

Comparative effectiveness of autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant vs fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

Importance: Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant (AHSCT) is available for treatment of highly active multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective: To compare the effectiveness of AHSCT vs fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in relapsing-remitting MS by emulating pairwise trials. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative treatment effectiveness study included 6 specialist MS centers with AHSCT programs and international MSBase registry between 2006 and 2021. The study included patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with AHSCT, fingolimod, natalizumab, or ocrelizumab with 2 or more years study follow-up including 2 or more disability assessments. Patients were matched on a propensity score derived from clinical and demographic characteristics. Exposure: AHSCT vs fingolimod, natalizumab, or ocrelizumab. Main outcomes: Pairwise-censored groups were compared on annualized relapse rates (ARR) and freedom from relapses and 6-month confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score worsening and improvement. Results: Of 4915 individuals, 167 were treated with AHSCT; 2558, fingolimod; 1490, natalizumab; and 700, ocrelizumab. The prematch AHSCT cohort was younger and with greater disability than the fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab cohorts; the matched groups were closely aligned. The proportion of women ranged from 65% to 70%, and the mean (SD) age ranged from 35.3 (9.4) to 37.1 (10.6) years. The mean (SD) disease duration ranged from 7.9 (5.6) to 8.7 (5.4) years, EDSS score ranged from 3.5 (1.6) to 3.9 (1.9), and frequency of relapses ranged from 0.77 (0.94) to 0.86 (0.89) in the preceding year. Compared with the fingolimod group (769 [30.0%]), AHSCT (144 [86.2%]) was associated with fewer relapses (ARR: mean [SD], 0.09 [0.30] vs 0.20 [0.44]), similar risk of disability worsening (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% CI, 0.91-3.17), and higher chance of disability improvement (HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.71-4.26) over 5 years. Compared with natalizumab (730 [49.0%]), AHSCT (146 [87.4%]) was associated with marginally lower ARR (mean [SD], 0.08 [0.31] vs 0.10 [0.34]), similar risk of disability worsening (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.54-2.09), and higher chance of disability improvement (HR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.72-4.18) over 5 years. AHSCT (110 [65.9%]) and ocrelizumab (343 [49.0%]) were associated with similar ARR (mean [SD], 0.09 [0.34] vs 0.06 [0.32]), disability worsening (HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 0.61-5.08), and disability improvement (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.66-2.82) over 3 years. AHSCT-related mortality occurred in 1 of 159 patients (0.6%). Conclusion: In this study, the association of AHSCT with preventing relapses and facilitating recovery from disability was considerably superior to fingolimod and marginally superior to natalizumab. This study did not find evidence for difference in the effectiveness of AHSCT and ocrelizumab over a shorter available follow-up time

Ocrelizumab versus Interferon Beta-1a in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis

Supported by F. Hoffmann–La Roche

Status and Trends of Physical Activity Surveillance, Policy, and Research in 164 Countries: Findings From the Global Observatory for Physical Activity—GoPA! 2015 and 2020 Surveys

Background: Physical activity (PA) surveillance, policy, and research efforts need to be periodically appraised to gain insight into national and global capacities for PA promotion. The aim of this paper was to assess the status and trends in PA surveillance, policy, and research in 164 countries. Methods: We used data from the Global Observatory for Physical Activity (GoPA!) 2015 and 2020 surveys. Comprehensive searches were performed for each country to determine the level of development of their PA surveillance, policy, and research, and the findings were verified by the GoPA! Country Contacts. Trends were analyzed based on the data available for both survey years. Results: The global 5-year progress in all 3 indicators was modest, with most countries either improving or staying at the same level. PA surveillance, policy, and research improved or remained at a high level in 48.1%, 40.6%, and 42.1% of the countries, respectively. PA surveillance, policy, and research scores decreased or remained at a low level in 8.3%, 15.8%, and 28.6% of the countries, respectively. The highest capacity for PA promotion was found in Europe, the lowest in Africa and low- and lower-middle-income countries. Although a large percentage of the world’s population benefit from at least some PA policy, surveillance, and research efforts in their countries, 49.6 million people are without PA surveillance, 629.4 million people are without PA policy, and 108.7 million live in countries without any PA research output. A total of 6.3 billion people or 88.2% of the world’s population live in countries where PA promotion capacity should be significantly improved. Conclusion: Despite PA is essential for health, there are large inequalities between countries and world regions in their capacity to promote PA. Coordinated efforts are needed to reduce the inequalities and improve the global capacity for PA promotion

MEsenchymal StEm cells for Multiple Sclerosis (MESEMS): a randomized, double blind, cross-over phase I/II clinical trial with autologous mesenchymal stem cells for the therapy of multiple sclerosis

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory disease of the central nervous system with a degenerative component, leading to irreversible disability. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) have been shown to prevent inflammation and neurodegeneration in animal models of MS, but no large phase II clinical trials have yet assessed the exploratory efficacy of MSC for MS. Methods/design: This is an academic, investigator-initiated, randomized, double-blind, placebo-compared phase I/II clinical trial with autologous, bone-marrow derived MSC in MS. Enrolled subjects will receive autologous MSC at either baseline or at week 24, through a cross-over design. Primary co-objectives are to test safety and efficacy of MSC treatment compared to placebo at 6 months. Secondary objectives will evaluate the efficacy of MSC at clinical and MRI levels. In order to overcome funding constraints, the MEsenchymal StEm cells for Multiple Sclerosis (MESEMS) study has been designed to merge partially independent clinical trials, following harmonized protocols and sharing some key centralized procedures, including data collection and analyses. Discussion: Results will provide patients and the scientific community with data on the safety and efficacy of MSC for MS. The innovative approach utilized to obtain funds to support the MESEMS trial could represent a new model to circumvent limitation of funds encountered by academic trials. Trial registration: Andalusia: NCT01745783, registered on Dec 10, 2012. Badalona: NCT02035514 EudraCT, 2010-024081-21. Registered on 2012. Canada: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02239393. Registered on September 12, 2014. Copenhagen: EudraCT, 2012-000518-13. Registered on June 21, 2012. Italy: EudraCT, 2011-001295-19, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01854957. Retrospectively registered on May 16, 2013. London: Eudra CT 2012-002357-35, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01606215. Registered on May 25, 2012. Salzburg: EudraCT, 2015-000137-78. Registered on September 15, 2015. Stockholm: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01730547. Registered on November 21, 2012. Toulouse: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02403947. Registered on March 31, 2015