Modelling long-memory volatilities with leverage effect: A-LMSV versus FIEGARCH

A new stochastic volatility model, called A-LMSV, is proposed to cope simultaneously with leverage effect and long-memory in volatility. Its statistical properties are derived and compared with the properties of the FIEGARCH model. It is shown that the dependence of the autocorrelations of squares on the parameters measuring the asymmetry and the persistence is different in both models. The kurtosis and autocorrelations of squares do not depend on the asymmetry in the A-LMSV model while they increase with the asymmetry in the FIEGARCH model. Furthermore, the autocorrelations of squares increase with the persistence in the A-LMSV model and decrease in the FIEGARCH model. On the other hand, if the correlation between returns and future volatilities is negative, the autocorrelations of absolute returns increase with the magnitude of the asymmetry in the FIEGARCH model while they decrease in the A-LMSV model. Finally, the cross-correlations between squares and original observations are, in general, larger in absolute value in the FIEGARCH model than in the A-LMSV model. The results are illustrated by fitting both models to represent the dynamic evolution of volatilities of daily returns of the S&P500 and DAX indexes.Publicad

La judicialización de la política internacional contra el terrorismo: reflexiones en torno a las sentencias Abd al Rahim al Nashiri vs. Polonia y Husayn (Abu Aubaydah) vs. Polonia

In order to respond to the attacks of September 11, 2011 and strengthen security, President George Bush issued the "military order" which denied the status of “people suspected of terrorism”, changed it to the category of "detains" and jailed them indefinitely. In this context, many countries -including Poland- helped the CIA with the establishment of rendition and secret detention programs, in which the citizens Abd al Rahim al Nashiri and Zayn al-Abidin Muhammad Husayn (Abu Zubaydah) were included. Their cases were analyzed by the European Court of Human rights in two judgments in which the violation of their fundamental rights is studied. In this paper, we study those decisions, developing the main elements such as facts, the context of the case, the rules of international law and the motivations of the court to make the decision.Con el propósito de responder a los ataques del 11 de septiembre de 2011 y fortalecer la seguridad, el presidente George Bush emitió la “military order” que negó el estatus de personas a sospechosos de terrorismo, a quienes se les dio la categoría de “detains” y se les recluyó de forma indefinida. En ese contexto, muchos países –incluido Polonia- prestaron ayuda a la CIA con programas de entrega y detención secreta en los que estuvieron los ciudadanos Abd al Rahim al Nashiri y Zayn al Abidin Muhammad Husayn (Abu Zubaydah), cuyos casos son analizados por la Corte Europea de Derechos Humanos en dos sentencias en las que se analizó la vulneración de sus derechos fundamentales. De esta manera, en este trabajo se estudian esas decisiones, desarrollando sus principales elementos como los hechos y contexto del caso, las normas de derecho internacional que se deben analizar, la fundamentación de la Corte para tomar la decisión y, finalmente, se expondrán algunas conclusiones

El doblado de papel en la comprensión de algunas características de los triángulos en estudiantes del grado octavo

Al inicio de este trabajo de investigación se abordan algunos antecedentes desde la comprensión en educación matemática, desde el marco teórico enseñanza para la comprensión, estudios desde el objeto de estudio, los aspectos conceptuales, legales y desde el doblado de papel. Dentro del paradigma cualitativo y el método de estudio de casos, mediante observaciones, entrevistas y registros de estudiantes se analiza la información obtenida, teniendo en cuenta unas dimensiones y categorías distribuidas en una rúbrica. Dicho trabajo se realiza desde el marco teórico Enseñanza para la Comprensión (EpC) con el propósito de analizar cómo comprenden los estudiantes de grado octavo algunas características de los triángulos utilizando como herramienta el doblado de papel. Consta de dos actividades distribuidas así: la primera es una actividad diagnóstica para indagar qué conocen los estudiantes sobre algunas características de los triángulos, la segunda es una actividad que consiste en el desarrollo de una guía de enseñanza, la cual consta de una fase de exploración, una fase de investigación guiada y un proyecto final de síntesis, diseñados a la luz del marco teórico empleado. De esta manera se logra dar un aporte a la enseñanza de algunos conceptos de la geometría, en particular de los triángulos, que conllevan a facilitar su comprensión mediante el doblado de papel y en esta medida por medio del diseño y aplicación de una rúbrica se pueda determinar cómo comprenden los estudiantes

Local identities, recognition and participation. Planning and management of rural areas of Medellin (Colombia).

Este artículo presenta los resultados de una investigación donde se usan la justicia ambiental y la comunicación para el cambio social como ejes teóricos. Se desarrolla con metodologías participativas en el contexto de las zonas rurales de Medellín durante el 2013. Su objetivo es identificar y clasificar las percepciones de los actores sociales que participan en la política de ordenamiento territorial. Los resultados que se encuentran son: (i) una gran diversidad de actores sociales, (ii) un alto nivel de dispersión de acciones en todo el territorio rural y (iii) unas identidades locales en constante cambio y reconstrucción, pero siempre asociadas a la ruralidad.El artículo finaliza subrayando algunas percepciones colectivas en respuesta a los efectos ambientales del modelo de expansión urbana y cómo los actores sociales de las cinco zonas rurales del municipio de Medellín cuentan con un legado de procesos de participación comunitaria con potencialidad para incidir con acciones locales en una justicia ambiental.This article presents the results of an investigation where environmental justice and communication for social change are used for social change as theoretical concepts. It develops with participatory methodologies in the context of rural areas of Medellin in 2013. Their goal is to identify and classify the perceptions of the social actors involved in the policies. The results found are (i) a wide range of social actors, (ii) a high level of dispersion of actions in all rural territories and (iii) a few local identities in constant change and reconstruction, but always associated with rural life.The article concludes by highlighting some collective perceptions in response to environmental effects of the model of urban expansion and how social actors in five rural areas of the municipality of Medellín have a legacy of community participation processes with the potentiality to influence local actions in a environmental justice.Este artigo apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa onde se usa a justiça ambientale a comunicação para a mudança social como eixos teóricos. Desenvolve-se com metodologias participativas no contexto das zonas rurais de Medellín durante 2013. Seu objetivo é identificar e classificar as percepções dos atores sociais que participam da politica de ordenamento territorial. Os resultados que se encontram são (i) uma diversidade de atores sociais, (ii) um alto nível de dispersão de açõesem todo o território rural e (iii) umas identidades locais em constante mudança e reconstrução.O artigo finaliza salientando algumas percepções coletivas em resposta aos efeitos ambientais do modelo de expansão urbana e como os atores sociais das cinco zonas rurais do município de Medellín contam com um legado de processos de participação comunitária com potencialidades para incidir com ações locais em uma justiça ambiental

Fostering collective intelligence education

New educational models are necessary to update learning environments to the digitally shared communication and information. Collective intelligence is an emerging field that already has a significant impact in many areas and will have great implications in education, not only from the side of new methodologies but also as a challenge for education. This paper proposes an approach to a collective intelligence model of teaching using Internet to combine two strategies: idea management and real time assessment in the class. A digital tool named Fabricius has been created supporting these two elements to foster the collaboration and engagement of students in the learning process. As a result of the research we propose a list of KPI trying to measure individual and collective performance. We are conscious that this is just a first approach to define which aspects of a class following a course can be qualified and quantified.Postprint (published version

Derechos sociales y justicia transicional: experiencias internacionales y el caso colombiano

La superación de un conflicto armado no sólo debe ir acompañada de un proceso de entrega de las armas y juicio a los perpetradores de los delitos; también supone identificar y corregir las causas estructurales de la violencia. Por ello, el objetivo de este artículo es analizar la inclusión de los derechos económicos, sociales y culturales (desc) en la justicia transicional. La hipótesis desarrollada es que, a pesar de las dificultades para dar eficacia plena a los desc, la justicia transicional, como un escenario político en disputa, puede permitir la construcción de memoria histórica en torno al desconocimiento de los derechos sociales, juzgar estas violaciones y adoptar políticas públicas. Para dar respuesta a esto, en un primer momento se aborda la relación entre desigualdad social y el conflicto colombiano. Posteriormente, a través de las experiencias de otros países, se expone cómo influye la justicia social y redistributiva sobre la justicia transicional. Por último, se retoma el caso de Colombia para explicar la convergencia entre el reconocimiento legislativo y judicial, centrando el estudio en la justicia transicional como escenario que puede promover las demandas de DESC.Overcome an armed conflict must not only be accompanied by a process of abandonment of arms and prosecution for perpetrators of crimes, but also involves identifying and correcting the structural causes of the violence. Thus, the objective of this article is to analyze the inclusion of economic, social and cultural rights (ESCR) in transitional justice. The hypothesis developed is that, although the difficulties to thoroughly endorse the ESCR, transitional justice, as a disputed political scenario, can allow the construction of historical memory around the ignorance of social rights, to judge these violations and adopt public policies. In order to give an answer, the article elaborates on the relationship between social inequality and the Colombian conflict. Subsequently, through the experiences of other countries, the influence of social and redistributive justice on transitional justice is presented. Finally, the case of Colombia is taken up to explain the convergence between legislative and judicial recognition, focusing the study on transitional justice as a scenario that can promote the demands related to the guarantee of ESCR

Short-term monitoring of the Spanish government balance

We construct multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the main components of the Spanish General Government sector made up of blocks for each one of its subsectors: Central Government, Social Security and aggregate of Regional and Local government sectors. Each block is modelled through its total revenue and expenditure categories, and encompasses a number of indicators, depending on data availability. The mixed-frequencies approach is particularly relevant for the case of Spain, given its institutional set-up and the specific data availability for the different subsectors. All in all, we provide models detailed enough in coverage, while at the same time manageable, to be used: (1) for real-time monitoring of fiscal policies with a focus on quarterly developments of the General Government sector, (2) for the monitoring of general government sub-sectors for which intra-annual data coverage is limited (Regional and Local governments), (3) to bridge (translate) into National Accounts availablemonthly information for the subsectors of the general government

La adicción de los estudiantes a las redes sociales on-line: un estudio en el contexto latinoamericano

Las redes sociales on-line (RSO) han significado una transformación en la manera de comunicarse y relacionarse con las personas, y han alcanzado una cierta presencia en el terreno educativo, siendo utilizadas como entorno para el trabajo colaborativo, medio alternativo de comunicación, aprendizaje de idiomas, plataforma o LMS para la formación virtual, y para la tutoría y asesoría de estudiantes. Adolescentes y jóvenes manejan las RSO como medios preferente para su comunicación e interacción, para extender sus relaciones, para localizar y demandar información, como elemento de diversión, como medio de convivencia y para la creación de nuevos lenguajes de comunicación. Por todas estas acciones, la finalidad de nuestro estudio es conocer y analizar el grado de adicción que jóvenes y adolescentes de diferentes países latinoamericanos presentan hacia las RSO. Para ello, se aplicó una adaptación de la escala de Sahin (2018) denominada “Social Media Addiction Scale-Student Form” (SMAS-SF) que fue contestada por 3223 jóvenes de Chile, Colombia, España, México, Perú y República Dominicana. Como resultados obtenidos, se observan diferencias significativas entre los jóvenes y adolescentes de los diferentes países encuestados, y además muestran fuertes signos de que a su juicio no son adictos a las mismas

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and its Complex Patterns of Reassortment

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5NX (clade 2.3.4.4b) is responsible for major outbreaks in poultry and wild birds in recent years. In 2014/2015, 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 the main subtype in Europe was H5N8, however for 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 seasons, the virus acquired a different neuraminidase making subtype H5N1. It has also undergone additional reassortments with internal protein coding segments from other low pathogenic strains and spread intercontinentally to the Americas, Africa and Asia.Using a sequence dataset of over 4000 genomes, we propose a method for determining and classifying reassortants suitable for further phylogenetic analysis. For each segment, the genetic distance between pairs of sequences is calculated, and sequences are grouped into 1.5-2% similarity clusters, and labelled according to size. The reassortment code of a whole-genome is composed of the individual segment cluster labels. With this method we see that there are 2-3 main reassortants in Europe for 2021-2023, particularly with different polymerase segments. The donor viruses for these reassorted segments largely originate from other co-circulating ‘Eurasian-pool’ low pathogenic strains, however one reassortant which has been severely affecting gulls and other seabirds also has segments from a ‘Northern-pool’ of viruses (Alaska and Northern Europe). Additionally, once in the Americas, there are multiple reassortments with co-circulating low pathogenic America’s lineages.Next, reassortants fitness properties in the population were estimated from phylodynamic growth rates of viral effective population size from time-scaled phylogenies as a function of genome composition, and bird-species with BEAST2 Birth-Death-Multitype-Models. We also used local branching index to provide a relative lineage growth measure with different bird-species at each node in the tree. Coupled with dates and spatial locations inference of the ancestral nodes, we are able to map the spatial and host species origin, dissemination, and initial fitness of the different reassortants.We find that the H5N1 strain has mixed with previously co-circulating low pathogenic viruses and acquired polymerases and other internal protein coding segments, resulting in fitter viruses in certain avian populations and further spread. We predict the reassortants will continue in the autumn in Europe, and expect further reassortments in the Americas